The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment. 相似文献
In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. 相似文献
There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large
and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or
not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision
making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented
with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural
vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility
curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and
results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city. 相似文献
Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for
experiments was a mixture of ZrO2 and 30Si-enriched SiO2 in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. 30Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant
nuclear reaction 30Si(p,γ)31P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol−1/RT) m2 s−1 for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements
[62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol−1/RT) m2 s−1]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures
with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two
orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen
diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of
the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we
can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: DZr < DSi << DO, dry < DO, ‘wet’. 相似文献
The crystallographic structures of the synthetic cheralite, CaTh(PO4)2, and its homolog CaNp(PO4)2 have been investigated by X-ray diffraction at room temperature. Rietveld analyses showed that both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic system and are isostructural to monazite LnPO4 (Ln = La to Gd). The space group is P21/n (I.T. = 14) with Z = 2. The refined lattice parameters of CaTh(PO4)2 are a = 6.7085(8) Å, b = 6.9160(6) Å, c = 6.4152(6) Å, and β = 103.71(1)° with best fit parameters Rwp = 4.87%, Rp = 3.69% and RB = 3.99%. For CaNp(PO4)2, we obtained a = 6.6509(5) Å, b = 6.8390(3) Å, c = 6.3537(8) Å, and β = 104.12(6)° and Rwp = 6.74%, Rp = 5.23%, and RB = 6.05%. The results indicate significant distortions of bond length and angles of the PO4 tetrahedra in CaTh(PO4)2 and to a lesser extent in CaNp(PO4)2. The structural distortions were confirmed by Raman spectroscopy of CaTh(PO4)2. A comparison with the isostructural compounds LnPO4 (Ln = Ce and Sm) confirmed that the substitution of the large rare earth trivalent cations with Ca2+ and Th4+ introduces a distortion of the PO4 tetrahedra. 相似文献
Using in situ strength measurements at pressures up to 10 GPa and at room temperature, 400, 600, and 700°C, we examined rheological
properties of olivine, orthopyroxene, and chromian-spinel contained in a mantle-derived xenolith. Mineral strengths were estimated
using widths of X-ray diffraction peaks as a function of pressure, temperature, and time. Differential stresses of all minerals
increase with increasing pressure, but they decrease with increasing temperature because of elastic strain on compression
and stress relaxation during heating. During compression at room temperature, all minerals deform plastically at differential
stress of 4–6 GPa. During subsequent heating, thermally induced yielding is observed in olivine at 600°C. Neither orthopyroxene
nor spinel shows complete stress relaxation, but both retain some stress even at 700°C. The strength of the minerals decreases
in the order of chromian-spinel ≈ orthopyroxene > olivine for these conditions. This order of strength is consistent with
the residual pressure of fluid inclusions in mantle xenoliths. 相似文献
Monitoring and control of a flotation circuit is mainly based on the information gained by assaying the process slurry lines. In flotation plants, usually an X-ray fluorescence analyzer is used to obtain the on-line assays. This article introduces the visual and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic analysis of the process slurries as a supplementary method which complements the on-line assay information available from an X-ray fluorescence analyzer. It is shown that the spectral information can be used to accurately predict the element contents in the slurry in between successive XRF analyses. Since the spectral measurements can be taken with high frequency as opposed to the sparse X-ray fluorescence analysis, a practically continuous on-line estimate of the slurry contents is reached. These estimates can be used in the plant control to improve the overall performance of the circuits and to yield also economical savings. Additionally, the frequent monitoring of the grades can provide means to eliminate rapid disturbances in the circuits, thus improving the stability of the process. 相似文献
Until recently the traditional spatial configuration of the European geography was based upon the core-periphery model. The
‘pentagon’, broadly defined as lying between London, Paris, Milan, Munich and Hamburg, was seen as the core area characterised
by having the highest concentration of economic development in the European Union (EU), with the remainder of the European
territory viewed as peripheral, albeit to varying degrees. In a number of cases such peripheral areas equated with clear regional
disparities. The elaboration of the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP) (CEC, European spatial development perspective, towards balanced and sustainable development in the territory of the
European Union, 1999) challenged this core-periphery model. European spatial planning policies, aimed at encouraging social
and economic, and with ever increasing importance, territorial cohesion, seek amongst other aspects to encourage the development
of a balanced and polycentric urban system. This paper adopts a network analysis approach to the analysis of air passenger
flows between some 28 principal European metropolitan urban regions. The evaluation of these flows contributes to an enhanced
comprehension of the spatial dynamics of the European metropolitan territory which goes beyond that deriving from the more
standard analyses of the individual components of the urban system. Several indicators are used, deriving from gravitational
modelling techniques, to analyse the complexity of the air passenger flows. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) technique is
introduced in order to interpret and visualise the resulting spatial configuration and positioning of the different metropolitan
centres within the conceptual European ‘space of air passenger flows’, thereby contrasting with the more traditional map-based
geographical image of Europe, based upon Cartesian coordinates.