塔里木地区早古生代海平面波动特征:来自地球化学及岩溶的证据

下古生界是塔里木盆地内最有潜力找到大油气田的层位。通过盆地内48口钻至下古生界钻井的沉积层序与沉积相分析、9800km地震剖面的地震相分析、大量Sr、C同位素及微量元素分析,并结合相关资料,开展了寒武纪—奥陶纪的以世或期为单位的岩相古地理研究,定性探讨海平面变迁。在此基础上,运用沉积地球化学定量探讨海平面的波动。分析表明,早古生代塔里木地区经历了两次大规模的海侵与海退过程,寒武纪和奥陶纪各经历了一次。每个海侵与海退过程内各包含了两个较高频的海平面升降旋回,即早寒武世早期海侵—早寒武世中期至中寒武世晚期海退、中寒武世末期海侵—晚寒武世晚期海退、早奥陶世早期至中奥陶世中期海侵—中奥陶世晚期海退、晚奥陶世早期海侵—晚奥陶世中至晚期海退。在上述2次大规模的海侵与海退以及4个较高频的海平面升降旋回中,两次大的海侵分别发育于早寒武世早期以及晚奥陶世早中期,三次较大的海退出现于中寒武世晚期、晚寒武世末期、晚奥陶世早期。岩溶在地层格架中的发育支持了上述结论。     

内蒙古安固里淖-泊江海子全新世中晚期湖泊沉积及其气候意义

与全新世海面变化相比,内陆封闭湖泊沉积在气候变化研究中更具有优势。对安固里淖和泊江海子两个湖泊的钻孔剖面进行了沉积学分析,结果表明：8400 a BP以来,研究区经历了全新世大暖期的增温阶段（8400～7300 a BP）、鼎盛阶段（7300～6200 a BP）、气候波动阶段（5500～5000 a BP）、亚稳定湿润阶段（5000～3000 a BP）和降温阶段（3000 a BP至今）,这与全国其他地区的环境演变过程基本一致;270 a BP（1680 A.D.）以来,研究区气候略向湿润方向转化;本世纪50年代以来,又向干旱化方向发展。     

中国降水异常的特征分析

异常降水直接影响着农业和其他生产活动。文中计算分析了中国160个测站的一些反映降水变化的常规统计量,认为这些统计量难以反映出降水异常的变化特征。文中从非线性动力学和统计学相结合的角度出发,分析了相隔1～20 a间不同时间尺度的降水变率之间的关系,找到可以区分任意地区降水异常特点的特征参数,由此可进一步判断某个地区旱涝灾害发生的可能性以及强度的大小,为气候研究工作提供必要的依据。     

THE FLUCTUATIONS OF DRY AND WET CLIMATE BOUNDARY AND ITS CAUSAL ANALYSES IN CHINA*

Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided into three types:the arid zone,the semi-arid zone and the humid zone. Isoline 0.20 is the boundary between arid and semi-arid zones.Isoline 0.50 is the boundary between semi-arid and humid zones.The fluctuations of dry and wet climate boundaries are very substantial,have greatly regional difference,and have the features of the whole shifting along the same direction and of the opposite moving along the contrary direction over the past 50 years.The semi-arid zone is a transitional zone between humid and arid zones,a border belt of monsoon,and a susceptible zone of environmental evolution in China. In the period of the late 1960s to the early 1970s,remarkable change had occurred for dry and wet climate in China.It manifests significantly that climate is from wetter into drought in most regions of northern China.Moreover,drought has an increasing trend.The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations in climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and the dry and wet variations of climate in China are East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau,westerly circulation,and West Pacific subtropical high.The different types of circulations and the strong and weak combinations of these circulations result in the regional differences of dry and wet climate changes in China.Inter-decadal variations of the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon,westerly circulation, and West Pacific subtropical high.The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the causes of arid and humid climate remarkable change in China.     

西北地区月季气温变化研究

利用西北五省 (区 ) 89个测站 196 1～ 1990年月平均气温资料 ,通过EOF分解等方法 ,分析了月 (季 )平均气温的年际变化特征及其基本空间分布型 ,最后将该地区气温按年际变化分为 :陕西区、青藏高原东部边缘区、青海高原区、河西走廊区、南疆区和北疆区等 6个区 ,这与实况较吻合。     

估算干旱区地下水依赖型植物蒸散发的White法评述

日尺度上的地下水位波动是干旱区地下水依赖型植物蒸散消耗地下水的直接证据与指示。White通过分析日尺度地下水位波动与植被蒸散之间的关系,提出了利用地下水位观测数据来计算植被蒸散速率的方法,简称White法。该方法由于计算简单,所需数据少,在干旱区河岸林蒸散定量方面得到了广泛的应用。本文通过系统回顾White法的提出、“四大假设条件”及其在实际应用中的不足,梳理了近年来对White法不断修订的总体思路,总结了各种形式White法的特点、使用条件以及存在的主要问题;在此基础上,提出了White法进一步改进的方向。当前,结合地表蒸散发的多尺度观测与模拟,White法不仅可以用来估算区域尺度地下水蒸散,而且能够为定量解析干旱区植物的水分利用来源提供验证与参考。     

承压含水层井孔储存效应对气压波动引起的井孔水位波动的影响

定量研究了井孔储存量对气压波动引起的承压含水层井水水位波动的抑制和滞后效应,建立了相应的数学模型,并推出了其解析解,给出了承压含水层井孔水位波动与气压波动的定量关系.分析发现,对于常见承压含水层完整井来说,当其井径大于0.1m时,井孔储存量对气压波动引起的井水水位波动具有明显的控制和滞后效应.随着井径的增大或者含水层水力扩散系数的减小,气压波动引起的井水水位的波动减弱.当井径无穷大或含水层水力扩散系数无穷小时,井水水位不再随气压波动;反之,当井径无限小或含水层水力扩散系数无穷大时,井水水位则正好以反相位随气压波动,且井水水位波动幅度和气压波动幅度之比刚好为气压效应系数.     

Municipal water demand forecasting under peculiar fluctuations in population: a case study of Mashhad,a tourist city

ABSTRACT

Forecasting future water demands has always been of great complexity, especially in the case of tourist cities which are subject to population fluctuations. In addition to the usual uncertainties related to climate and weather variables, daily water consumption in Mashhad, a tourist city is affected by a significant different fluctuation. Mashhad is the second most populous city in Iran. The number of tourists visiting the city is subject to national and religious events, which are respectively based on the Iranian formal calendar (secular calendar) and the Arabic Hijri calendar (Islamic religious calendar). Since religious events move relative to the secular calendar, the coincidence of the two calendars results in peculiar wild fluctuations in population. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are chosen to predict water demand under such conditions. Three types of ANNs, feedforward back-propagation, cascade-forward and radial basis functions, are developed. In order to track how population fluctuation propagates in the model and affects the outputs, two sets of inputs are considered. For the first set, based on evaluating several repetitions, a typical combination of variables is selected as inputs, whereas for the second set, new calendar-based variables are included to decrease the effect of population fluctuations; the results are then compared using some performance criteria. A large number of runs are also conducted to assess the impact of random initialization of the weights and biases of networks and also the effect of calendar-based inputs on improvement of network performance. It is shown that, from the points of view of performance measures and unchanging outputs through numerous runs, the radial basis network that is trained by patterns including calendar-based inputs can provide the best domestic water demand forecasting under population fluctuations.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor E. Rozos     

Response of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Yellow Sea over the past 400 a

Quantitative identification of long-term changes in the abundance of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea is particularly important for understanding evolutionary processes of the Yellow Sea ecosystem. Unfortunately, the driving mechanisms of climate variability on the anchovy are still unclear due to the lack of long-term observational data. In this study, we used the fish scale deposition rate in the central Yellow Sea to reconstruct the time series of the anchovy stock over the past 400 a. On this basis, we further explored the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the anchovy. Our results show that the anchovy stock is positively correlated with the PDO on a decadal time scale. In addition, anchovy abundance was relatively high during 1620–1860 AD (the Little Ice Age, LIA), though in a state of constant fluctuation; anchovy abundance maintained at a relatively low level after ~1860 AD. In particular, followed by overfishing since the 1980s, the anchovy stock has declined sharply. Based on these findings, we infer that fluctuations of the anchovy stock may be regulated by basin-scale “atmosphere–ocean” interactions. Nevertheless, the role of overfishing should not be ignored.     

Unique episodic groundwater recharge event in a South American sedimentary aquifer and its long-term impact on baseflow

The anomalous entrance of water into groundwater systems can affect storage throughout long periods and normally relies on infrequent and irregular pulses of groundwater recharge defined by the term episodic recharge. Recently there was a groundwater recharge of large magnitude with unknown circumstances in the Caiuá aquifer. This unique event was explored in detail here and allowed to better understand the occurrence of such events in humid subtropical climates in South America. For this study, groundwater monitoring daily data from the Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network was used combined with a specific yield obtained from geophysical wireline logging to obtain groundwater recharge rates. To improve the investigation, we also used a baseflow separation method to obtain the groundwater contribution into local rivers. The groundwater storage variations were also assessed by remote sensing with the GRACE data. Results showed the importance of high soil moisture storage on the occurrence of large episodic recharge events. We estimated that the groundwater recharger volumes derived from 1 year that included the unique episodic recharge observed (total of 866 mm for April 2015–March 2016) were comparable with the sum of 7 years of groundwater recharge (total of 867 mm). Atypical rainfall in winter periods were responsible for the increase in soil moisture that explained that unique event. GRACE-based GWS showed concordance detecting the occurrence of the unique episodic recharge. However, the variation in terms of volumes obtained by GRACE does not represent the behaviour observed in the aquifer by the WTF method. The results also indicated that changes in aquifer storage caused by episodic recharge events directly affect low flows in rivers over long periods. The main knowledge gap addressed here relates to exploring a unique episodic recharge event quite rare to observe with its long-term impacts on hydroclimatic variability over a humid subtropical portion of the Caiuá aquifer.