Reliability of Lifeline Networks with Multiple Sources under Seismic Hazard

Lifelines are networks extending spatiallyover large areas. Transportation systems, pipelines,communication and power transmission systems areexamples of lifelines. The performance of a lifelineafter a major earthquake is particularly vital for acommunity because of the emergency services that areusually required after such events. Performancemeasures are usually expressed in terms of quantitiesthat are assessed based on statistical andprobabilistic methodologies. The major performancemeasure is the probability of reaching from aspecified point to another one successfully after acatastrophic event, such as an earthquake. Evaluationof this performance measure requires a seismic hazardmethodology, capacity determination techniques andnetwork reliability assessment methods. By combiningthese three aspects in one model, it is possible tocalculate the reliability of any lifeline system underseismic danger. The aim of this paper is to present aprobabilistic model for the evaluation of the seismicreliability of lifeline networks having multiplesources. The seismic reliability of a waterdistribution system located in Bursa, Turkey isassessed in order to show the implementation of theproposed model. The numerical calculations are carriedout by the LIFEPACK software, which is developed forthis purpose.     

Analysis of the time-scaling behaviour in the sequence of the aftershocks of the Bovec (Slovenia) April 12, 1998 earthquake

Analysis of the temporal fluctuations, described by a power spectral density S(f) decaying as 1/f with exponent >0, in the sequence of aftershocks of the Bovec (Slovenia) earthquake of April 12, 1998 has been performed, using the Allan Factor (AF) method. The sequence of the occurrence times of the events with threshold magnitude M_th≥2.0 is characterised by a scale-invariant behaviour from the time scale τ2·10⁴ s with a scaling coefficient 0.9, evaluated by a least-square method. By gradually increasing the threshold magnitude up to M_th=2.9, the AF curves, associated, respectively with the processes of selected events with magnitude M≥M_th, indicate a monotonic decrease of the value of the scaling exponent , in the range of time scales stretching from 10² to 5·10⁵ s. For all the thresholds considered, the AF curves increase monotonically with the counting time and are well fitted by an increasing power-law function for counting times greater than approximately 2·10⁴ s. This monotonic power-law increase indicates the presence of fluctuations on many time scales and therefore of fractal clustering.     

厦门海域蟹类资源的变化

本研究依据2006—2007年与2016—2017年各个季节在厦门海域采样获得的蟹类样品数据,对比分析了其种类组成、资源密度及其多样性指数。结果表明：厦门海域蟹类的种类组成有较大变化,种类更替率为55.32%,伴随着在两次调查中扇蟹科、方蟹科和关公蟹科等物种的新出现及梭子蟹科和长脚蟹科物种的消失,同时蟹类丰度(d)有所减少;均匀度(J)、种类多样性指数(H′)和资源密度变化较小;蟹类的群落结构变得更单一,容易遭到破坏;研究期间拟穴青蟹(Scylla paramamosain)资源出现一定程度的恢复,蟹类资源的平均个体质量有所增加,其中秋季蟹类个数密度增长较为明显。本研究建议在保证严格禁渔等管理的同时,加强对其海洋栖息地的管理和恢复。     

塔里木地区早古生代海平面波动特征:来自地球化学及岩溶的证据

下古生界是塔里木盆地内最有潜力找到大油气田的层位。通过盆地内48口钻至下古生界钻井的沉积层序与沉积相分析、9800km地震剖面的地震相分析、大量Sr、C同位素及微量元素分析,并结合相关资料,开展了寒武纪—奥陶纪的以世或期为单位的岩相古地理研究,定性探讨海平面变迁。在此基础上,运用沉积地球化学定量探讨海平面的波动。分析表明,早古生代塔里木地区经历了两次大规模的海侵与海退过程,寒武纪和奥陶纪各经历了一次。每个海侵与海退过程内各包含了两个较高频的海平面升降旋回,即早寒武世早期海侵—早寒武世中期至中寒武世晚期海退、中寒武世末期海侵—晚寒武世晚期海退、早奥陶世早期至中奥陶世中期海侵—中奥陶世晚期海退、晚奥陶世早期海侵—晚奥陶世中至晚期海退。在上述2次大规模的海侵与海退以及4个较高频的海平面升降旋回中,两次大的海侵分别发育于早寒武世早期以及晚奥陶世早中期,三次较大的海退出现于中寒武世晚期、晚寒武世末期、晚奥陶世早期。岩溶在地层格架中的发育支持了上述结论。     

内蒙古安固里淖-泊江海子全新世中晚期湖泊沉积及其气候意义

与全新世海面变化相比,内陆封闭湖泊沉积在气候变化研究中更具有优势。对安固里淖和泊江海子两个湖泊的钻孔剖面进行了沉积学分析,结果表明：8400 a BP以来,研究区经历了全新世大暖期的增温阶段（8400～7300 a BP）、鼎盛阶段（7300～6200 a BP）、气候波动阶段（5500～5000 a BP）、亚稳定湿润阶段（5000～3000 a BP）和降温阶段（3000 a BP至今）,这与全国其他地区的环境演变过程基本一致;270 a BP（1680 A.D.）以来,研究区气候略向湿润方向转化;本世纪50年代以来,又向干旱化方向发展。     

中国降水异常的特征分析

异常降水直接影响着农业和其他生产活动。文中计算分析了中国160个测站的一些反映降水变化的常规统计量,认为这些统计量难以反映出降水异常的变化特征。文中从非线性动力学和统计学相结合的角度出发,分析了相隔1～20 a间不同时间尺度的降水变率之间的关系,找到可以区分任意地区降水异常特点的特征参数,由此可进一步判断某个地区旱涝灾害发生的可能性以及强度的大小,为气候研究工作提供必要的依据。     

THE FLUCTUATIONS OF DRY AND WET CLIMATE BOUNDARY AND ITS CAUSAL ANALYSES IN CHINA*

Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided into three types:the arid zone,the semi-arid zone and the humid zone. Isoline 0.20 is the boundary between arid and semi-arid zones.Isoline 0.50 is the boundary between semi-arid and humid zones.The fluctuations of dry and wet climate boundaries are very substantial,have greatly regional difference,and have the features of the whole shifting along the same direction and of the opposite moving along the contrary direction over the past 50 years.The semi-arid zone is a transitional zone between humid and arid zones,a border belt of monsoon,and a susceptible zone of environmental evolution in China. In the period of the late 1960s to the early 1970s,remarkable change had occurred for dry and wet climate in China.It manifests significantly that climate is from wetter into drought in most regions of northern China.Moreover,drought has an increasing trend.The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations in climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and the dry and wet variations of climate in China are East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau,westerly circulation,and West Pacific subtropical high.The different types of circulations and the strong and weak combinations of these circulations result in the regional differences of dry and wet climate changes in China.Inter-decadal variations of the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon,westerly circulation, and West Pacific subtropical high.The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the causes of arid and humid climate remarkable change in China.     

西北地区月季气温变化研究

利用西北五省 (区 ) 89个测站 196 1～ 1990年月平均气温资料 ,通过EOF分解等方法 ,分析了月 (季 )平均气温的年际变化特征及其基本空间分布型 ,最后将该地区气温按年际变化分为 :陕西区、青藏高原东部边缘区、青海高原区、河西走廊区、南疆区和北疆区等 6个区 ,这与实况较吻合。     

阵风的分形与混沌特征研究

首先分析了北京2002年3月一次强沙尘天气过程的阵风结构,对其进行了分形特征的分析,比较不同高度层上分数维的变化,不同时间尺度阵风概率分布的标度关系,以及无阵风时间尺度概率分布的标度与分数维存在的联系.更进一步,分析了2002年全年的阵风分形特性、3月的分形特征以及其他天气现象(如降雨)的分形特征比较后,发现:1)小尺度阵风结构的分数维要高于大尺度阵风分数维,这是因为小尺度阵风包含了更多短时局部的天气信息;2)不同高度、不同时间尺度阵风的分数维存在较大差异,而不是象湍流脉动时间序列的分数维那样随时间基本不变;3)因受天气形势的影响大,中尺度阵风的分数维虽基本相同,但由于大尺度阵风较少,其概率分布不存在标度关系,这同样也在其他天气现象(如降雨)中存在;4)无阵风时间尺度概率分布的标度与分数维之间的联系,一方面反映在其标度指数上,另一方面反映在其标度区间上.     

北京市郊区及城区边缘的大气湍流结构特征

为了比较城市边缘地区和郊区大气边界层中湍流结构的差异,本文分析了1986年春、夏两季在北京市城市边缘地区和郊区两处大气湍流观测结果.结果表明,由于城市边缘地区的下垫表面具有较高数值的粗糙度,使其近地面层大气受到较强的动力影响,在其湍流速度分量谱曲线;无量纲化湍流速度分量标准偏差,σ_u/u*,σ_v/u*和σ_w/u*;以及无量纲化湍流耗散率φ_ε等湍流特征量在近中性层结条件下显示出与大气稳定度的关系比较微弱.