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861.
862.
863.
The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks. 相似文献
864.
A multi-scale study on land use and land cover quality change: The case of the Yellow River Delta in China 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
This paper presents a case study of the Yellow River Delta in China, to trace land use and land cover changes during the past
20 years, with an emphasis on land quality changes. Three sets of data are used in this case study: remote sensing data derived
from satellite images; crop yield data from statistics; and soil data collected by the researchers in the field. Our study
reveals that at the regional scale, LUCC has taken place in a positive direction: vegetation cover has been expanding and
crop yields per hectare have been on rise. However, while the overall eco-environment has improved, the improvement is uneven
across the Delta region. At local levels, some areas show signs of increased salinization and declining organic content. Both
natural forces and human activities are responsible for the LUCC, but human activities play a more important role. While some
impacts of human activities are positive, the damages are often long-lasting and irreversible. We also conclude that it is
necessary to use both macro data (such as remote sensing data) and micro data (data collected in the field) to study land
quality change. The former are efficient in examining land quality changes at the regional scale, the latter can serve to
verify ground patterns revealed from macro data and help to identify local variations, so as to get a comprehensive understanding
of LUCC and promote sustainable land use and land management.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
865.
A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters. 相似文献
866.
The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August. 相似文献
867.
Groundwater-flow modeling in the Yucatan karstic aquifer, Mexico 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roger González-Herrera Ismael Sánchez-y-Pinto José Gamboa-Vargas 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(5):539-552
The current conceptual model of the unconfined karstic aquifer in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, is that a fresh-water lens
floats above denser saline water that penetrates more than 40 km inland. The transmissivity of the aquifer is very high so
the hydraulic gradient is very low, ranging from 7–10 mm/km through most of the northern part of the peninsula. The computer
modeling program AQUIFER was used to investigate the regional groundwater flow in the aquifer. The karstified zone was modeled
using the assumption that it acts hydraulically similar to a granular, porous medium. As part of the calibration, the following
hypotheses were tested: (1) karstic features play an important role in the groundwater-flow system; (2) a ring or belt of
sinkholes in the area is a manifestation of a zone of high transmissivity that facilitates the channeling of groundwater toward
the Gulf of Mexico; and (3) the geologic features in the southern part of Yucatan influence the groundwater-flow system. The
model shows that the Sierrita de Ticul fault, in the southwestern part of the study area, acts as a flow barrier and head
values decline toward the northeast. The modeling also shows that the regional flow-system dynamics have not been altered
despite the large number of pumping wells because the volume of water pumped is small compared with the volume of recharge,
and the well-developed karst system of the region has a very high hydraulic conductivity.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
868.
A total of four times of rhabdosome complication events, i.e., the lateral branching of graptolite stipes during the Late Middle Ordovician, the secondary branching of graptolite stipes at the earliest Upper Ordovician, the early Qiantangjiangian of Upper Ordovician and the middle Qiantangjiangian, respectively, is discussed in this paper. These events and other adaptation events demonstrate close relationships between a diverse graptolite fauna and sea level changes, and consequently can be employed to study sea level fluctuations. It is safe to conclude that the complication of rhabdosome started at the maximum flooding surface (MFS) and terminated at the beginning of regression. 相似文献
869.
Analogue study of particle segregation in pyroclastic density currents, with implications for the emplacement mechanisms of large ignimbrites 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Abstract Analogue flume experiments were conducted to investigate the transport and sedimentation behaviour of turbulent pyroclastic density currents. The experimental currents were scaled approximately to the natural environment in three ways: (1) they were fully turbulent; (2) they had a very wide range of particle sizes and associated Rouse numbers (the ratio of particle settling velocity to effective turbulent eddy velocity in the current); and (3) they contained particles of two different densities. Two sets of surge‐type experiments were conducted in a 5 m long, water‐filled lock‐exchange flume at five different volumetric particle concentrations from 0·6% to 23%. In one set (one‐component experiments), the currents contained just dense particles; in the other set (two‐component experiments), they contained both light and dense particles in equal volume proportions. In both sets of experiments, the population of each component had a log‐normal size distribution. In the two‐component experiments, the size range of the light particle population was selected in order to be in hydrodynamic equivalence with that of the dense particles. Dense particles were normally graded, both vertically and downstream, in the deposits from both sets of experiments. The mass loading (normalized to the initial mass of the suspension) and grain size of the dense component in the deposits decreased with distance from the reservoir and were insensitive to initial total particle concentration in the currents. On the other hand, in the two‐component experiments, the light particles were extremely sensitive to concentration. They were deposited in hydrodynamic equivalence with the dense particles from dilute currents, but were segregated efficiently at concentrations higher than a few per cent. With increasing particle concentration, the large, light particles were carried progressively further down the flume because of buoyancy effects. Deposits from the high‐concentration currents exhibited reverse vertical grading of the large, light particles. Efficient segregation of the light component was observed even if the bulk density of the current was less than that of the light particles. In both sets of experiments, marked inflexions in the rate of downstream decline in mass loading and maximum grain size of the dense component can be attributed to the presence of two different particle settling regimes in the flow: (1) particles with Rouse numbers >2·5, which did not respond to the turbulence and settled rapidly; and (2) particles with Rouse numbers <2·5, which followed the turbulent eddies and settled slowly. The results are applied to the transport and sedimentation dynamics of pyroclastic density currents that generate large, widespread ignimbrites. Field data fail to reveal significant departures from aerodynamic equivalence between pumice and lithic clasts in three such ignimbrites: the particulate loads of some large ignimbrites are transported principally in turbulent suspensions of low concentration. In some ignimbrites, the well‐developed inflexions in curves of maximum lithic (ML) size vs. distance can be attributed to the existence of distinct high and low Rouse number particle settling regimes that mark the transition from an overcharged state to one in which the residual particulate load is transported more effectively by turbulence. 相似文献
870.
Anatomy of shelf deltas at the edge of a prograding Eocene shelf margin, Spitsbergen 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Abstract Although shelf‐edge deltas are well‐imaged seismic features of Holocene and Pleistocene shelf margins, documented outcrop analogues of these important sand‐prone reservoirs are rare. The facies and stratigraphic architecture of an outcropping shelf‐edge delta system in the Eocene Battfjellet Formation, Spitsbergen, is presented here, as well as the implications of this delta system for the generation of sand‐prone, shelf‐margin clinoforms. The shelf‐edge deltas of the Battfjellet Formation on Litledalsfjellet and Høgsnyta produced a 3–5 × 15 km, shelf edge‐attached, slope apron (70 m of sandstones proximally, tapering to zero on the lower slope). The slope apron consists of distributary channel and mouth‐bar deposits in its shelf‐edge reaches, passing downslope to slope channels/chutes that fed turbiditic lobes and spillover sheets. In the transgressive phase of the slope apron, estuaries developed at the shelf edge, and these also produced minor lobes on the slope. The short‐headed mountainous rivers that drained the adjacent orogenic belt and fed the narrow shelf, and the shelf‐edge position of the discharging deltas, made an appropriate setting for the generation of hyperpycnal turbidity currents on the slope of the shelf margin. The abundance of organic matter and of coal fragments in the slope turbidites is consistent with this notion. Evidence that many of the slope turbidites were generated by sustained turbidity currents that waxed then waned includes the presence of scour surfaces and thick intervals of plane‐parallel laminae within turbidite beds in the slope channels, and thick spillover lobes with repetitive alternations of massive and flat‐laminated intervals. The examined shelf‐edge to slope system, now preserved mainly below the shelf break and dominated by sediment gravity‐flow deposits, has a threefold stratigraphic architecture: a lower, progradational part, in which the clinoforms have a slight downward‐directed trajectory; a thin aggradational zone; and an upper part in which clinoforms backstep up onto the shelf edge. A greatly increased density of erosional channels and chutes marks the regressive‐to‐transgressive turnaround within the slope apron, and this zone becomes an angular unconformity up near the shelf edge. This unconformity, with both subaerial and subaqueous components, is interpreted as a sequence boundary and developed by vigorous sand delivery and bypass across the shelf edge during the time interval of falling relative sea level. The studied shelf‐margin clinoforms accreted mostly during falling stage (sea level below the shelf edge), but the outer shelf later became estuarine as sea level became re‐established above the shelf edge. 相似文献