Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Partial L-moments for the analysis of censored flood samples / Utilisation des L-moments partiels pour l’analyse d’échantillons tronqués de crues

Abstract

Abstract A parameter estimation method is proposed for fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to censored flood samples. Partial L-moments (PL-moments), which are variants of L-moments and analogous to ?partial probability weighted moments?, are defined for the analysis of such flood samples. Expressions are derived to calculate PL-moments directly from uncensored annual floods, and to fit the parameters of the GEV distribution using PL-moments. Results of Monte Carlo simulation study show that sampling properties of PL-moments, with censoring flood samples of up to 30% are similar to those of simple L-moments, and also that both PL-moment and LH-moments (higher-order L-moments) have similar sampling properties. Finally, simple L-moments, LH-moments, and PL-moments are used to fit the GEV distribution to 75 annual maximum flow series of Nepalese and Irish catchments, and it is found that, in some situations, both LH- and PL-moments can produce a better fit to the larger flow values than simple L-moments.     

A mixing-length model for predicting vertical velocity distribution in flows through emergent vegetation

Abstract

The vertical profiles of streamwise velocities are computed on flood plains vegetated with trees. The calculations were made based on a newly developed one-dimensional model, taking into account the relevant forces acting on the volumetric element surrounding the considered vegetation elements. A modified mixing length concept was used in the model. An important by-product of the model is the method for evaluating the friction velocities, and consequently bed shear stresses, in a vegetated channel. The model results were compared with the relevant experimental results obtained in a laboratory flume in which flood plains were covered by simulated vegetation.     

Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh

Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SHRIMP zircon age for an Early Cambrian dolerite dyke: An intrusive phase of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics of northern Australia

The Antrim Plateau Volcanics, Australia's largest Phanerozoic flood‐basalt province, originally covered an area of at least 300 000 km² across northern Australia. Stratigraphic constraints indicate that the Antrim Plateau Volcanics are of Early Cambrian age (ca 545–509 Ma), although previous attempts to date the Antrim basalts by radiometric methods have been inconclusive. We present an ion microprobe U–Pb zircon age of 513 ± 12 Ma for the ～250 km‐long Milliwindi dolerite dyke in the west Kimberley. The dolerite is geochemically identical to basalts of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics, and was probably a feeder dyke for basalts that have since been eroded. It is suggested that the Antrim Plateau Volcanics extended hundreds of kilometres further to the west than recognised previously and may have once covered part of the Kimberley block.     

梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论和方法

人类活动和气候变化显著地改变了河川径流及洪水的时空分配过程，直接影响下游断面的设计洪水。本文综述水库对下游水文情势的影响，提出梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论方法和研究内容；重点探讨非一致性洪水频率分析和基于Copula函数的最可能地区洪水组成法，比较各种方法的实用性；推荐采用运行期设计洪水及汛控水位指导水库调度运行，建议进一步加强水库运行期设计洪水计算理论和方法研究。     

Areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh: How much did the satellite imagery show?

This paper presents the methods and results of visual interpretation of satellite imagery for estimating areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh. The main limitation of this method was that cloud-free images were not available for the peak flood period in the first week of September. Relatively cloud-free images on three selected dates in the last three weeks of September showed that areas of inundation on those dates ranged from 44000 to 60000 km² ± 5% (31 to 42% of Bangladesh). The Government of Bangladesh official estimates of the areal extent of flooding were tentative in nature, since these were based on a choropleth map of relative proportions (percentages) of flooding in different parts of the country. The official estimate of the maximum extent of flooding was 82000 km² (57% of Bangladesh), i.e. 15 to 26% larger than the area shown on satellite imagery. The actual extent of flooding was certainly larger than the estimates from satellite imagery but, perhaps, smaller than the official estimates, since a reduction of 15 to 26% of flood area in one to three weeks seemed unlikely. An alternative method of mapping flood-affected areas by using newspaper-interpreted data was attempted, but the method had limited values because of reporting bias.     

长江流域旱涝典型年大气水汽输送

利用我国125个探空站一日两次自地面至100hpa共11个层次上的观测资料,对长江流域典型夏涝年(1980年)和夏旱年(1985年)我国大气中水汽总输送场、涡动输送场及散度场进行了计算分析。结果表明:当水汽总输送场从西北、西南和东南三支气流携带的水汽交汇于长江流域,且整个水汽输送场稳定持久,则在水汽辐合带附近导致大量降水,形成洪涝;反之,当三支气流微弱不稳定,不能形成水汽辐合带条件,则形成干旱。涡动输送亦反映出类似的特征。稳定且强盛的西南气流水汽输送是形成降水的主要条件和原因。     

江汉平原渍涝灾害遥感的初步研究

提出了采用遥感技术与地理信息系统结合研究渍涝灾害的方案,其内容包括:(1)信息源选择与信息处理1(2)清访机理与灾情分析;(3)灾情预报与防治决策.讨论了实施技术系统的基本功能:(1)图像与数据处理1(2)基本信息的提取与分析,(3)损失分析模型与预报模型.作为本方案论证的一部分,还介绍了笔者近期在这一领域中的部分研究成果.