金沙江下游梯级水库运行后三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性

泥沙淤积问题直接影响着三峡水库的使用寿命及综合效益的发挥,研究其入库水沙特性对于解决水库泥沙淤积问题具有重要意义。根据水文站实测数据,分析了三峡水库入库水沙输移特性及来源组成变化,重点研究了金沙江下游梯级水库运行后的三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性。结果表明:2003—2021年,三峡水库入库泥沙集中于汛期的高洪水期,2013年以后该现象更为显著,泥沙来源也由金沙江为主转变为嘉陵江为主。寸滩站洪峰流量高于50000 m³/s的高洪水期三峡入库沙量显著大于30000～50000 m³/s区间的高洪水期,三峡水库泥沙调度关键在于上游发生编号洪水期间。三峡水库上游沱江或嘉陵江等支流发生流域性大洪水时,易引起高洪水期入库水沙出现“小水大沙”的特点。金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,三峡水库高洪水期入库泥沙大幅减少,中小洪水调度期间泥沙淤积量也大幅减小。研究结果可为三峡水库的泥沙精细化调度和长期高效使用提供基础数据支撑。     

黑河干流洪水预报模型研究

黑河干流上游区水文站点稀少,区间部分支流洪水过程无法控制,中游区河流沿程大量引水灌溉、取水口甚多用水量无法获得,使得以水量平衡原理为基础的洪水演算方法难以应用。针对上述情况,笔者应用系统水文模型理论并对其进行了改进。通过引入系统存贮变量,建立了一个新的黑河干流洪水预报模型-河道洪水演算模型。经1996年,1998年两次特大洪水试报检验,结果表明该模型的预报精度较高,对黑河干流防洪减灾、水利工程科学管理以及水资源优化配置具有重要的作用。     

长江流域大洪水有序网络结构及其预测研究

根据1827年以来的统计资料进行分析,长江流域大洪水展示出极为显著的有序性.运用翁文波信息预测理论,构建长江大洪水二维平面和三维立体信息有序网络结构并进行综合分析和预测,结果表明：2014、2020、2030、2036、2051与2058年前后的汛期,长江流域将有可能发生大洪水.     

洪水影响预报和风险预警理念与业务实践

我国是世界上洪涝灾害频繁而严重的国家之一,洪水预报预警是防汛减灾工作中重要的非工程措施和洪水防御工作的耳目和参谋。从水文行业的视角,回顾了近年来我国洪水预报预警技术与业务进展,分析了当前洪水预报预警工作面临的新形势和新要求,对比国内外同类行业发展查找了存在的差距,阐述了洪水影响预报和风险预警的定义和理念,从顶层对基于影响预报和风险预警的新一代洪水预报预警系统("国家洪水预报预警系统")总体框架进行了研究和设计,一些关键技术成果在大范围洪水早期预警业务实践中得到了探索应用,取得了较好的效果。     

Effect of urbanization on runoff characteristics of the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan,Korea

This study investigated the effect of urbanization on runoff from the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan, Korea. This watershed has been experiencing considerable urbanization since the 1960s. There are two gauging stations in the watershed. For one of the stations there are recent flow data and for the other flow data were observed in the past. A linear reservoir model was chosen and runoff was analysed for several flood events. The linear reservoir model has been found to generate flood hydrographs accurately for both gauging stations, and its applicability to the study area has also been established. Using two methods of computing effective rainfall or rainfall excess (ϕ-index and constant percentage method), the results of runoff analyses were investigated. The ϕ-index method yielded better results than the constant percentage method. A comparison of hydrographs observed in the past with the simulation results at the Ie-Sup bridge site revealed that the peak discharge increased and the mean lag time of the study area decreased owing to urbanization over the past two decades. It is also possible to evaluate the effect of urbanization quantitatively. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江口沙波统计特征及输移规律

利用多波束测深系统对长江口南港、北槽、横沙通道和北港水下地貌进行测量,对沙波波高、波长、迎流倾角、背流倾角、水深和沉积物特征进行统计,并根据流速、沉积物粒径及水深估算其潮周期内净位移。结果表明:长江口沙波基本都为大型沙波,且沙波大小与其所在区域沉积物粒径呈正比关系;长江口各个区域沙波的对称性不同,涨、落潮优势流越明显,则沙波对称性越差,净位移越大;沙波对称性能反映此区域水动力强弱及潮周期内沙波净位移大小。     

黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型及其应用

为在宏观上对黄河中游水沙运动的变化规律从随机过程的角度予以揭示,以黄河中游潼关水文站1952-1998年期间流量超过6 000m3/s的次洪过程中的洪峰流量和相应的沙峰含沙量系列为基础,运用Copula函数方法构建了黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型并对其应用进行了探讨.结果表明:在水沙丰枯同步频率中,同丰的频率略大于同枯的...     

内蒙古东南部暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划——以通辽市为例

文章选取通辽市各气象站点气象数据、基础地理信息数据、历史灾情数据、第二次土地调查数据及相关社会经济等统计数据,基于自然灾害风险原理,利用数理统计、层次分析法及空间叠加分析等方法,提出了通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系,得到通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估空间分布图。结果表明:高风险区主要分布在通辽市北部山区、中东部地区及偏南部地区,包括扎鲁特旗鲁北镇、科尔沁区、科左中旗东南部及库伦旗东南部;而科左后旗大部地区易形成由短时强降水引发的洪涝,为次高风险区;低风险区及次低风险区主要分布在通辽市中部、西南部地区,包括开鲁县、奈曼旗北部、科左中旗西部。     

莱芜市汛期地质灾害防治方案初探

莱芜市是一个矿产资源开采历史比较悠久的城市,也是一个地质灾害多发的地区。莱芜市国土资源局通过加强组织领导,组织专题宣传活动,修复治理损毁山体问题,加大日常监管措施,推进生产矿山的恢复治理等措施,取得良好的治理效果,矿山地质环境恢复治理率达66％,有效保护了当地的地质环境。     

Coupled ‘storm‐flood’ depositional model: Application to the Miocene–Modern Baram Delta Province,north‐west Borneo

The Miocene to Modern Baram Delta Province is a highly efficient source to sink system that has accumulated 9 to 12 km of coastal–deltaic to shelf sediments over the past 15 Myr. Facies analysis based on ca 1 km of total vertical outcrop stratigraphy, combined with subsurface geology and sedimentary processes in the present‐day Baram Delta Province, suggests a ‘storm‐flood’ depositional model comprising two distinct periods: (i) fair‐weather periods are dominated by alongshore sediment reworking and coastal sand accumulation; and (ii) monsoon‐driven storm periods are characterized by increased wave‐energy and offshore‐directed downwelling storm flow that occur simultaneously with peak fluvial discharge caused by storm precipitation (‘storm‐floods’). The modern equivalent environment has the following characteristics: (i) humid‐tropical monsoonal climate; (ii) narrow (ca <100 km) and steep (ca 1°), densely vegetated, coastal plain; (iii) deep tropical weathering of a mudstone‐dominated hinterland; (iv) multiple independent, small to moderate‐sized (10² to 10⁵ km²) drainage basins; (v) predominance of river‐mouth bypassing; and (vi) supply‐dominated shelf. The ancient, proximal part of this system (the onshore Belait Formation) is dominated by strongly cyclical sandier‐upward successions (metre to decametre‐scale) comprising (from bottom to top): (i) finely laminated mudstone with millimetre‐scale silty laminae; (ii) heterolithic sandstone–mudstone alternations (centimetre to metre‐scale); and (iii) sharp‐based, swaley cross‐stratified sandstone beds and bedsets (metre to decimetre‐scale). Gutter casts (decimetre to metre‐scale) are widespread, they are filled with swaley cross‐stratified sandstone and their long axes are oriented perpendicular to the palaeo‐shoreline. The gutter casts and other associated waning‐flow event beds suggest that erosion and deposition was controlled by high‐energy, offshore‐directed, oscillatory‐dominated, sediment‐laden combined flows within a shoreface to delta front setting. The presence of multiple river mouths and exceptionally high rates of accommodation creation (characteristic of the Neogene to Recent Baram Delta Province; up to 3000 m Ma⁻¹), in a ‘storm‐flood’‐dominated environment, resulted in a highly efficient and effective offshore‐directed sediment transport system.