基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例

以皮里青河流域为研究区,运用小时降水、土地利用类型、数字高程（DEM）、实测淹没深度等数据,基于FloodArea模型对研究区2010年5月2日、2012年6月3日、2016年5月9日、2016年6月17日洪水过程进行再现模拟,通过精度验证并建立了降水－淹没深度的关系,在此基础上确定了4个淹没等级对应的致灾临界雨量。相关分析得出喀拉亚尕奇乡累计8 h降雨量与模拟洪水淹没深度的相关性最好,达到了0.96,潘津乡降雨累计5 h的相关性最好,为0.99;通过实测数据对模拟淹没深度进行精度检验得出,喀拉亚尕奇乡和潘津乡两个考察点相对误差分别为0.47 m和0.1 m,误差率分别为31.33%和7.69%,FloodArea模型对研究区洪水过程模拟的效果较好,可以反映出该区域的洪水淹没情况,能为无水文资料的山区流域的山洪过程进行较为精准的模拟;按照山洪灾害等级划分标准和降水-淹没深度的关系得出,预警点累计5 h降水得到对应4个等级的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为：四级17.84 mm、三级32.39 mm、二级54.21 mm、一级76.04 mm。     

江苏盛夏两次局地特大暴雨过程对比分析

本文利用Micaps资料、江苏自动气象站数据、常州多普勒雷达观测和NCEP全球分析场,从降水实况、环流背景、雷达回波特征、动力和热力条件等方面,对2009年8月2日和2011年7月13日两次江苏盛夏局地特大暴雨过程进行了分析和比较。结果表明:大尺度鞍型场背景下副热带高压和大陆高压的同时增强使得降水系统更集中、对流发展更旺盛,降水中心在低空切变的南侧、地面辐合的北侧、水汽在大陆东部输送的顶点。而副热带高压相对较弱的情形下,有利于热带低值系统外围偏东风场的持续水汽输送,对流发展较弱,但持续时间更长;配合低层深厚的中尺度触发系统,使得局地降水强度更有爆发力,降水中心靠近水汽在大陆东部的输送起点。     

Nine thousand years of upper montane soil/vegetation dynamics from the summit of Caratuva Peak,Southern Brazil

Biodiversity loss, climate change, and increased freshwater consumption are some of the main environmental problems on Earth. Mountain ecosystems can reduce these threats by providing several positive influences, such as the maintenance of biodiversity, water regulation, and carbon storage, amongst others. The knowledge of the history of these environments and their response to climate change is very important for management, conservation, and environmental monitoring programs. The genesis of the soil organic matter of the current upper montane vegetation remains unclear and seems to be quite variable depending on location. Some upper montane sites in the very extensive coastal Sea Mountain Range present considerable organic matter from the late Pleistocene and other from only the Holocene. Our study was carried out on three soil profiles (two cores in grassland and one in forest) on the Caratuva Peak of the Serra do Ibitiraquire (a sub-range of Sea Mountain Range – Serra do Mar) in Southern Brazil. The δ¹³C isotopic analyses of organic matter in soil horizons were conducted to detect whether C₃ or C₄ plants dominated the past communities. Complementarily, we performed a pollen analysis and ¹⁴C dating of the humin fraction to obtain the age of the studied horizons. Except for a short and probably drier period (between 6000 and 4500 cal yr BP), C₃ plants, including ombrophilous grasses and trees, have dominated the highlands of the Caratuva Peak (Pico Caratuva), as well as the other uppermost summits of the Serra do Ibitiraquire, since around 9000 cal yr BP. The Caratuva region represents a landscape of high altitude grasslands (campos de altitude altomontanos or campos altomontanos) and upper montane rain/cloud forests with soils that most likely contain some organic matter from the late Pleistocene, as has been reported in Southern and Southeastern Brazil for other sites. However, our results indicate that the studied deposits (near the summit) are from the early to late Holocene, when somewhat wetter and warmer conditions (since around 9000 cal yr BP) enabled a stronger colonization of the ridge of Pico Caratuva by mainly C₃ plants, especially grassland species. However, at the same time, even near the summit, the soil core from the forest site already presented the current physiognomy (or a shrubby/elfin or successional forest), indicating that the colonization of the neighboring uppermost saddles and valleys were probably populated mainly by upper montane forest species.     

Late Pleistocene outburst flooding from pluvial Lake Alvord into the Owyhee River, Oregon

At least one large, late Pleistocene flood traveled into the Owyhee River as a result of a rise and subsequent outburst from pluvial Lake Alvord in southeastern Oregon. Lake Alvord breached Big Sand Gap in its eastern rim after reaching an elevation of 1292 m, releasing 11.3 km³ of water into the adjacent Coyote Basin as it eroded the Big Sand Gap outlet channel to an elevation of about 1280 m. The outflow filled and then spilled out of Coyote Basin through two outlets at 1278 m and into Crooked Creek drainage, ultimately flowing into the Owyhee and Snake Rivers. Along Crooked Creek, the resulting flood eroded canyons, stripped bedrock surfaces, and deposited numerous boulder bars containing imbricated clasts up to 4.1 m in diameter, some of which are located over 30 m above the present-day channel.Critical depth calculations at Big Sand Gap show that maximum outflow from a 1292- to 1280-m drop in Lake Alvord was  10,000 m³ s^− 1. Flooding became confined to a single channel approximately 40 km downstream of Big Sand Gap, where step-backwater calculations show that a much larger peak discharge of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 is required to match the highest geologic evidence of the flood in this channel. This inconsistency can be explained by (1) a single 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood that caused at least 13 m of vertical incision in the channel (hence enlarging the channel cross-section); (2) multiple floods of 10,000 m³ s^− 1 or less, each producing some incision of the channel; or (3) an earlier flood of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 creating the highest flood deposits and crossed drainage divides observed along Crooked Creek drainage, followed by a later 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood associated with the most recent shorelines in Alvord and Coyote Basins.Well-developed shorelines of Lake Alvord at 1280 m and in Coyote Basin at 1278 m suggest that after the initial flood, postflood overflow persisted for an extended period, connecting Alvord and Coyote Basins with the Owyhee River of the Columbia River drainage. Surficial weathering characteristics and planktonic freshwater diatoms in Lake Alvord sediment stratigraphically below Mt. St. Helens set Sg tephra, suggest deep open-basin conditions at  13–14 ka (¹⁴C yr) and that the flood and prominent shorelines date to about this time. But geomorphic and sedimentological evidence also show that Alvord and Coyote Basins held older, higher-elevation lakes that may have released earlier floods down Crooked Creek.     

江淮流域一次特大暴雨的数值模拟及动力分析

以周晓平研制的有限区域细网格数值模式为基础，编制成一个套网格模式，并对１９９１年７月２～３日发生在江淮流域的特大暴雨过程，进行了数值模拟和动力分析。结果表明：低空急流加强，输送了大量暖湿空气并激发强烈的上升运动是造成该区暴雨的主要原因；在该过程中，热成风平衡遭到破坏，其非热成风平衡部分伴随相应的二级环流，也有利于垂直运动的产生。     

Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.     

河道洪水演进数值模拟及其在GIS平台上的可视化

针对公共安全应急平台中灾害预测预警和应急处置的快速反应需求,建立了基于圣维南方程的河道洪水演进的水动力学模型。采用库朗格式的特征线方法对基本方程进行数值求解,得出水位和流量沿河道的时空变化关系,在此基础上进一步研究了基于GIS的洪水演进可视化方法。最后,通过天然河道模拟实例验证了所建模型的可靠性和实用性。     

广东0506大暴雨的成因探讨

2005年6月18～25日,广东省出现罕见的持续强降水过程(0506大暴雨),造成广东省巨大的经济损失。利用NCEP再分析资料计算的非地转Q矢量、假相当位温和经向环流对这次强降水过程进行分析,结果表明:南海地区的对流系统北移并多日滞留在广东地区是0506大暴雨的一个直接原因,它是南海夏季风活动的一个表现;广东0506大暴雨有明显的南北两个主要的降水区域,其中南边是季风对流降水,而北部则属于锋面降水雨带。     

一次台风暴雨的初步分析

文章对1994年7月12～13日一次登陆台风造成的华北暴雨作了天气动力学诊断分析。分析表明,9406号台风登陆后,台风和太平洋副热带高压间形成的偏东南风低空急流,具有明显超地转特征,它是触发这次台风暴雨的关键系统。Q矢量诊断表明,Q矢量辐合区与暴雨位置较为一致。     

黄河河口演变(Ⅰ) --(一)河口水文特征

本文利用20世纪后半个世纪的完整实测资料，研究了河口径流量与输沙量的变化，自50年代至90年代呈明显递减。对黄河口的水文特征：水情、沙情、断流、离子流量、滨海潮汐、潮流、余流、温、盐度分布、风暴潮、拦门沙与盐水楔等作出定性和定量的论述。对断流的危害、成因及缓解对策作出分析。河口淤积、延伸、改道对黄河下游的影响也作出时空上的定量分析。对1855年以来近代黄河三角洲海岸线变化，作出了定量研究。