冬季菲律宾周围对流活动与北太平洋风暴轴联系的数值模拟

通过利用IAP 2-L AGCM进行的数值模拟,进一步揭示了冬季菲律宾周围对流活动异常对北太平洋风暴轴变化的影响及其二者联系的物理机制和物理过程。结果表明:当菲律宾周围对流活动增强时,在500 hPa等压面图上强迫产生一个自赤道西太平洋开始,经我国东部、堪察加半岛、白令海,到美国西海岸的异常波列;位于西太平洋的经向三圈环流增强,位置北移;在风暴轴的西半部和东端斜压性增强;从而导致了北太平洋风暴轴增强、北抬、东伸。     

Unravelling a long-term multi-event thermal record in the cratonic interior of southern Finland through apatite fission track thermochronology

Apatite fission track thermochronology (AFTT) has been applied to the Precambrian basement rocks of southern Finland in an attempt to detect within the long-term thermal history, thermal manifestations in the cratonic interior of tectonic events at the craton margin. The likely subtle magnitude of these manifestations means that AFTT is a useful technique for such a study due to its low temperature sensitivity. A total of 10 samples have been analysed, generating AFTT ages, length statistics and thermal models. Ages range from 313 ± 22 to 848 ± 60 Ma and mean track lengths range from 11.0 ± 1.6 to 13.3 ± 1.8 μm. The data suggests the presence of thermal overprinting of an earlier cooling event. Thermal modelling produces similar results for all samples and typically contains the following major events: (1) two phases of Late-Proterozoic cooling, (2) Late-Silurian re-heating, (3) Cenozoic cooling. The first phase of Late-Proterozoic cooling is interpreted to be due to aulacogen inversion as a result of stress propagation from the collisional tectonics of the Sveconorwegian orogeny. The second phase is discussed in relation to passive margin formation and possible asthenospheric diaper induced relief and exhumation. The Late-Silurian re-heating coincides in time with a proposed Caledonian foreland basin. The Cenozoic cooling is interpreted to represent the latest exposure resulting from North Atlantic Margin formation induced uplift and associated denudation.     

两个相似路径台风造成山东降水明显差异的成因分析

利用常规气象资料、自动气象站资料、气象卫星资料及NCEP FNL 1°×1°再分析资料对以相似路径影响山东的登陆北上类台风“利奇马”（1909）和“桃芝”（0108）进行对比分析,得到以下主要结论：1）暴雨分布特征和强度与热带气旋位置存在显著差异。2）中纬度台风暴雨比较复杂,台风降水地形增幅作用尽管明显,但主要与台风结构和强度差异有关。3）小时最大雨量与台风强弱没有必然联系,强降水维持时间长短是“利奇马”与“桃芝”累计降水有较大差别的重要因素。4）环流形势的显著差异是导致两个台风影响山东时间、降水明显不同的一个重要原因。5）“利奇马”和“桃芝”降水水汽输送条件差异是降水分布存在明显差异的重要因素,动力条件也存在明显差异。6）对流有效位能(convective available potential energy,CAPE)在两次台风暴雨中反应效果不同。     

北大巴山凤凰山基底隆起晚中生代构造隆升历史

对采自于北大巴山凤凰山基底隆起8个样品的磷灰石裂变径迹年代学分析和热历史模拟表明,凤凰山基底隆起陆内造山运动结束后的隆升历史大致可以划分为2个阶段：早白垩世中晚期（135±5～95±5 Ma）缓慢隆升,晚白垩世（95±5～65±5 Ma）快速隆升。大巴山北缘韧性剪切带黑云母40Ar/39Ar坪年龄证实大巴山北缘中晚侏罗世（165.7±1.9 Ma～161.2 Ma）存在快速隆升剥蚀,其与大巴山强烈陆内造山作用阶段有关; 早白垩世中晚期缓慢隆升代表了陆内造山结束后的稳定阶段; 晚白垩世快速隆升为一次区域性隆升事件,在秦岭、大别和武当等地区均有反映,隆升过程中伴随着强烈的伸展垮塌作用,沿秦岭造山带发育一系列伸展断陷盆地。区域对比分析表明,凤凰山基底隆起隆升历史与黄陵、汉南地块接近,但与武当地块存在明显区别,反映了秦岭造山带的不均一隆升过程。南大巴山前陆带1个样品的热史模拟结果显示,南大巴山前陆带自早白垩世以来与凤凰山基底隆起经历了一致的隆升过程。     

Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific

Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone (TC) formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the peak-season (July-September) TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950-2007. It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevai...     

冬季北太平洋风暴轴和北大西洋风暴轴的协同变化及其与同期海气系统的空间耦合关系

基于1960~2014年NCEP/NCAR（美国环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心）的逐日再分析资料以及NCPC（美国气候预报中心）的海温资料和大气环流及海洋指数,通过风暴轴指数、经验证交分解（EOF）等方法,研究了冬季北半球北太平洋风暴轴（PST）和北大西洋风暴轴（AST）之间不同时间尺度下的协同变化特征,并利用回归和相关分析对风暴轴的年际和年代际协同变化特征与同期海气系统的空间耦合关系进行了探讨。主要结论概括如下:（1）从所定义的冬季北半球两大洋风暴轴的纬度、经度和强度指数来看:三个指数均存在明显的年际变化和年代际变化,其中年际分量的方差贡献远大于年代际分量;对于单个风暴轴来讲,无论是滤波方差场原始序列还是其年际分量和年代际分量序列,每个风暴轴各自的纬度指数和经度指数均呈显著正相关,表明每个风暴轴各自的南北位移和东西位移具有很好的协同性;虽然从原始序列来看,两个风暴轴之间各指数之间的相关关系均并不显著,但是对于年际分量序列和年代际分量序列,两个风暴轴之间均具有显著的协同性变化,其中,在年际尺度上,两者仅强度变化之间具有显著的正相关,而在年代际尺度上,AST的经度（纬度）变化与PST的强度（纬度及强度）变化均具有显著的负相关。（2）EOF结果表明,两个风暴轴之间协同变化的空间结构在年际尺度上反映的主要是强度的变化,第一模态为两者强度在其气候平均位置附近同时减弱（增强）并伴随AST整体和PST东部均略有北抬（南压）,第二模态为两者强度在其气候平均位置附近同时减弱（增强）并仅伴随AST整体略有南压（北抬）;而在年代际尺度上,第一模态为AST整体偏北（南）中东部偏强（弱）与PST整体偏南（北）中东部偏弱（强）的反位相协同变化;第二模态为两个风暴轴的强度在其气候平均位置附近同时增强（减弱）的一致性协同变化。（3）进一步分析表明,两个风暴轴之间以不同模态协同变化时,与同期海温、遥相关型及环流异常等海气系统之间均呈现出很好的空间耦合关系,但具有不同的特点。     

阻塞结构对近海台风异常路径影响的数值试验

采用数值试验方法，研究了近海台风移动路径对环境动力因子的敏感性特征。数值模拟结果表明，台风北侧阻塞高压结构的变化，对近海台风路径异常现象的发生有显著影响。     

Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.     

热带大气准双周振荡对西北太平洋地区热带气旋路径的影响

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,简称NO-An）的逐日对外长波辐射（outgoing longwave radiation,简称OLR）场资料,欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Center for Medium—Range Weather Forecasting,简称ECMWF）逐日风场（850hPa）资料,以及美国联合台风预警中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center,简称JTWC）的热带气旋（tropicalcy—clone,简称TC）数据,参考Wheeler and Hendon（2004）提出的季节内振荡（Madden—Julianoscilla．tion,简称MJO）指数,通过多元EOF方法定义热带准双周振荡（quasi—biweekly oscillation,简称QBW）指数,诊断分析了西北太平洋地区QBW不同位相对于TC路径的影响。结果表明,TC主要生成在QSW对流湿位相中,集中位置随QBW向西北的传播而向西北移动。在QSW位相phasel中,南海上空盛行QBW反气旋性环流,西太副高西伸,其西南侧偏东南气流受QBW反气旋性环流东北侧气流抑制,生成在副高南侧的TC首先在副高南侧偏东气流的引导下移动至近海,在西南季风以及副高西侧偏南气流作用下顺时针北折,因此在140°E以西转折类路径的TC比例最高;而在phase3中,西太副高偏东,南海上空盛行QBW气旋性环流,西太副高西南侧气流强度受QBW气旋东北侧气流影响增强,季风槽偏东,140°E以东转折类的TC比例最高。本文还对TC个例中的QBW流场形势进行了分析,发现当QBW气旋或反气旋环流中心同TC中心一致时,热带气旋路径会发生突然的右折。     

“狮子山”奇异路径及业务预报着眼点的初步分析

利用热带气旋业务资料、数值模式分析场等产品从大气环流、双台风作用角度简要分析了1006号强热带风暴“狮子山”奇异路径的形成原因,结果表明同时存在的热带气旋“南川”和“圆规”所产生的双台风作用对“狮子山”路径有重要影响,并针对业务中的预报着眼点进行了分析和讨论.