Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

Effect of Cyclic Loading Frequency on Undrained Behaviors of Undisturbed Marine Clay

Based on a series of cyclic triaxial tests, the effect of cyclic frequency on the undrained behaviors of undisturbed marine clay is investigated. For a given dynamic stress ratio, the accumulated pore water pressure and dynamic strain increase with the number of cycles. There exists a threshold value for beth the accumulated pore water pressure and dynamic strain, below which the effect of cyclic frequency is very small, but above which the accumulated pore water pressure and dynamic strain increase intensely with the decrease of cyclic frequency for a given number of cycles. The dynamic strength increases with the increase of cyclic frequency, whereas the effect of cyclic frequency on it gradually diminishes to zero when the number of cycles is large enough, and the dynamic strengths at different frequencies tend to the same limiting minimum dynamic strength. The test results demonstrate that the reasons for the frequency effect on the undrained soil behaviors are beth the creep effect induced by the loading rate and the decrease of sample effective confining pressure caused by the accumulated pore water pressure.     

南海温跃层基本特征及一维预报模式

根据现有1907—1990年南海大面调查资料,按1°×1°网格进行逐月的标准水层的温度统计。在此基础上采用3次样条函数的插值方法计算出整个南海温跃层的深度、厚度和强度并予以相应分析。分析表明,南海温跃层主要分为两种类型:第一类为辐射型,主要分布在南海北部的陆架区内,季节变化显著;第二类为不同水体叠置型,主要分布在广大深水区,它长年存在,季节变化较小。一种温跃层的一维积分预报模式,该模式是基于忽略热平流作用和水平热扩散的前提下,从局部热平衡方程出发,建立了受海面热收支及风混合作用下求解温度垂直分布及温跃层的时空变化。在南海北部水深约300m处进行了单站温跃层后报,结果表明,温跃层的深度、厚度和强度的相对误差均在30％以下。     

Drag Coefficient,Dynamic Roughness and Reference Wind Speed

Surface waves are the roughness element of the ocean surface. The parameterization of the drag coefficient of the ocean surface is simplified by referencing to wind speed at an elevation proportional to the characteristic wavelength. The dynamic roughness is analytically related to the drag coefficient. Under the assumption of fetch limited wave growth condition, various empirical functions of the dynamic roughness can be converted to equivalent expressions for comparison. For datasets covering a wide range of the dimensionless frequency (inverse wave age), it is important to account for the variable rate of wave development at different wave ages. As a result, the dependence of the Charnock parameter on wave age is nonmonotonic. Finally, the analysis presented here suggests that the significant wave steepness is a sensitive property of the ocean surface and a single variable normalization of the dynamic roughness using a wavelength or wave height parameter actually produces more robust functions than bi-variable normalizations using wave height and wave slope.     

Full-range nonlinear analysis of fatigue behaviors of reinforced concrete structures by finite element method

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Numerical Simulation of Residual Circulation due to Bottom Rouglmess Variability Under Tidal Flows in A Semi-Enclosed Bay

Nowadays there are some chronic serious environmental problems, such as eutrophication, blue tide and so on, in a complicated coastal zone or a semi-enclosed bay, because the water exchanges between an inner bay and an outer sea is weak compared with the supply of contaminant. Under this situation, a method to improve the water quality by 3-dimensional small unsymmetrical structures has been proposed by Komatsu et al. In this paper, several numerical simulations of the tidal current and concentration for various arrangements of bottom roughness in a semi-enclosed model bay are carfled out with a depth-averaged 2-D numerical model. The model is solved by the hybrid finite analytic method with nonstaggered grid. And the SIMPLES algorithm with Rhie and Chow＇ s momentum interpolation technique is used for the simulation. The effect of Komatsu＇ s method for water purification is examined by numerical simulation. The result of numerical experiment indicates that it is possible to generate a new tidal residual current and to activate a tidal exchange by bottom roughness arrangement only.     

Three-dimensional Layer-integrated Modelling of Estuarine Flows with Flooding and Drying

Details are given of the refinement and application of a thee-dimensional (3-D) layer-integrated numerical model of tidal circulation, with the aim of simulating severe tidal conditions for practical engineering applications. The mode splitting strategy has been used in the model. A set of depth-integrated 2-D equations are first solved to give the pressure gradient, and the layer-integrated 3-D equations are then solved to obtain the vertical distributions of the flow velocities. Attention has been given to maintaining consistency of the physical quantities derived from the 2-D and 3-D equations. A TWO=layer mixing length turbulence model for the vertical shear stress distribution has been included in the model. Emphasis has been focused on applying the model to a real estuary, which is geometrically complicated and has large tidal ranges giving rise to extensive flooding and drying. The model has been applied to three examples, including: wind-driven flow in a rectangular lake, tidal circulation in a model rectangular harbour, and tidal circulation in a large estuary. Favourable results have been obtained for both the simple and complex flow beds.