青藏高原积雪分布与变化特征

本文对青藏高原ＳＭＭＲ修积雪深度、ＮＯＡＡ周积雪面积、地面台站积雪深度进行了分析。结果表明青藏高原东西两侧多雪与腹地少雪形成鲜明对比,高原东部是高原积雪年际变化最显著的地区,它主导了整个高原积雪的年际变化,并且与西部多雪区年际波动呈反位相关系。从６０年代到８０年代积雪年际波动幅度有明显增加趋势,积雪变化具有３年左右准周期。随着全球变暖,青藏高原积雪将会有所增加。     

Small-scale ductile shear zones as transposed rheologically weak domains: A numerical modeling investigation and practical application

We test the hypothesis that small ductile shear zones are developed from initial rheologically weak domains. We regard weak domains as ellipsoidal inhomogeneities and apply Eshelby's formalism extended for power-law viscous materials to investigate the kinematics and finite strain evolution of the partitioned flow fields in weak domains. We show that, under an imposed bulk flow field, weak domains, regardless of their initial shapes and orientations, deform into zone-like features at relatively small bulk strains and the deformation paths inside weak domains have all characteristics expected in ductile shear zones. We apply our model to the Cap de Creus area Spain, where abundant small ductile shear zones exist. To relate the fabrics inside these shear zones with the regional deformation, we take a multi-scale approach. We assume that the area contained many weak domains which were randomly shaped and oriented initially and were deformed into shear zones eventually in response to the regional flow. We constrain the regional flow field by the fabric patterns across the area and compute numerically the partitioned flow fields in individual weak domains. The latter are related to fabrics inside shear zones. Our model reproduces first-order features of field-observed fabrics. Although the deformation path of each shear zone was close to simple shearing, the deformation of the whole belt was not. Our approach also resolves the strain compatibility problem for a finite-sized shear zone embedded in a far less deformed country rock.     

一次春季江淮气旋形成发展特征及暴雨诊断分析

利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,对2013年5月25-27日一次江淮气旋的形成发展及其引发的暴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:高空明显的正涡度平流、低层暖平流以及与辐合辐散区相对应的垂直运动是导致气旋发展的重要物理因子。气旋发展过程和湿位涡正压项及斜压项有很好的对应关系,气旋的增强阶段伴随对流层低层mpv_1的增大及mpv_2值的减小;高层湿位涡下传;使近地面大气斜压性增强,从而在低层诱生出气旋性环流。气旋的形成发展过程与对流层正涡度柱的形成相对应,与湿位涡的空间结构及其演变有密切的联系。气旋引发的暴雨位于气旋移动路径的左前方(东北象限),该区域低层强辐合中心和正涡度中心的耦合,加剧水汽和能量的辐合,为暴雨维持提供了条件。     

我国铁矿资源状况

2005~2008年,笔者等先后开展了“我国大中型铁矿山资源潜力调查评估”和以大中型铁矿山为重点的“我国铁矿资源潜力数据库建设”项目工作。本文根据全国大中型铁矿相关资料和近年铁矿勘查成果,对我国铁矿资源的潜力和找矿空间进行深入研究和分析,在此基础上对我国铁矿资源的发展趋势提出了科学的预测。     

考虑刚度劣化的剪切带-围岩系统稳定性分析

峰后的刚度劣化现象（渐进损伤）在多种煤、岩石、混凝土、土和砂子的循环加载实验中已被观察到。本文考虑了剪切带及带外弹性体的不同的刚度劣化现象,推导了剪切带（断层）-弹性围岩系统在直剪条件下的应力-变形曲线。剪切带的刚度劣化不改变剪切带的总变形,但使剪切带的弹性变形增加、塑性变形降低。考虑弹性体的刚度劣化现象之后,系统的峰后应力-变形曲线呈现非线性特征,这不同于过去忽略刚度劣化现象的结果。在应变软化过程中,剪切带之外弹性体的刚度劣化,使系统的峰后响应由负斜率（Ⅰ类行为）变为正斜率（Ⅱ类变形行为）。较高的弹性体尺寸、较高的脆性、较小的内部长度、较低的围岩初始弹性模量、较高的抗剪强度、较低的残余剪切应力及较高的残余剪切弹性模量,使系统的峰后响应变得陡峭,甚至发生Ⅱ类行为,使系统的失稳（岩爆、冲击地压、采矿诱发地震或矿震）易于发生。     

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.     

Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change

Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties.     

STAMP: spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons

Research questions regarding temporal change in spatial patterns are increasingly common in geographical analysis. In this research, we explore and extend an approach to the spatial–temporal analysis of polygons that are spatially distinct and experience discrete changes though time. We present five new movement events for describing spatial processes: displacement, convergence, divergence, fragmentation and concentration. Spatial–temporal measures of events for size and direction are presented for two time periods, and multiple time periods. Size change metrics are based on area overlaps and a modified cone-based model is used for calculating polygon directional relationships. Quantitative directional measures are used to develop application specific metrics, such as an estimation of the concentration parameter for a von Mises distribution, and the directional rate of spread. The utility of the STAMP methods are demonstrated by a case study on the spread of a wildfire in northwestern Montana.      

基于UF、GFC及RP-HPLC的长牡蛎(Crassostrea gigas)蛋白抗衰老小分子活性肽(Zel'ner)的纯化及结构解析

牡蛎肉质鲜美,营养丰富,具有很高的食用价值。本研究以舟山长牡蛎(Crassostreagigas)为研究对象,以DPPH自由基清除率为测试指标,通过UF、GFC及RP-HPLC等技术,对牡蛎蛋白酶解液进行分离纯化,获得牡蛎蛋白小分子肽样品,并对其氨基酸组成进行营养性评价。研究结果表明:浓度为30%—100%的硫酸铵处理酶解液的分离效果明显优于低于浓度为30%硫酸铵的分离效果,其DPPH自由基清除率达到52.43%;纯化后得到两种牡蛎蛋白小分子肽分别标记为组分a(Mw1kDa)和组分b(1kDaMw3kDa);组分a中牡蛎蛋白小分子肽分子量分布主要为1995.2Da、1258.9Da、1023.3Da、398.1Da;对牡蛎蛋白小分子肽组分a进行检测,发现其中氨基酸种类及含量丰富,其中必需氨基酸(EAA)含量为18.863%,总氨基酸含量(TAA)为43.3748%,必需氨基酸占总氨基酸43.49%,必需氨基酸与非必需氨基酸(NEAA)的比例为76.95%,风味氨基酸(FAA)含量为18.9147%,占总氨基酸含量的43.61%。综上可见,牡蛎蛋白小分子肽具有极高的营养价值和市场经济效益,此研究为牡蛎蛋白抗衰老小分子活性肽(Zel'ner)的开发提供了新的思路和方向。     

层状盐岩中储备库油气渗漏风险的故障树分析

油气渗漏是盐岩地下储备库事故的重要类型之一,具有突发性强、损失难以估计的特点。针对国内层状盐岩中储备库运营过程中的油气渗漏风险进行分析,揭示了油气渗漏事故的发生机制并建立了相应的故障树模型。通过对该模型的分析,找出了事故发生的各基本致因事件和故障模式,并得出适用于典型层状盐岩储备库油气渗漏事故的发生概率公式。分析结果表明,国内层状盐岩中储备库发生油气渗漏事故的可能故障模式有28种,且发生条件易于满足而难于防范,因此事故发生的可能性较大;按照各基本事件结构重要度的计算结果,盐岩强度低、盐岩蠕变过量、附近有断层、地震、造腔参数控制不当、非均匀地应力、人为操作失误等是层状盐岩中储备库油气渗漏事故的主要致因事件,并据此提出有效措施防止事故发生;通过专家调查法和故障树法的综合分析得出,金坛盐矿5口老腔储库在近10年的运营期内发生油气渗漏事故的概率为0.703%,属于偶发性事故。