变形分析的Bayes估计与检验

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。     

A micromechanical finite element model for linear and damage‐coupled viscoelastic behaviour of asphalt mixture

This study presents a finite element (FE) micromechanical modelling approach for the simulation of linear and damage‐coupled viscoelastic behaviour of asphalt mixture. Asphalt mixture is a composite material of graded aggregates bound with mastic (asphalt and fine aggregates). The microstructural model of asphalt mixture incorporates an equivalent lattice network structure whereby intergranular load transfer is simulated through an effective asphalt mastic zone. The finite element model integrates the ABAQUS user material subroutine with continuum elements for the effective asphalt mastic and rigid body elements for each aggregate. A unified approach is proposed using Schapery non‐linear viscoelastic model for the rate‐independent and rate‐dependent damage behaviour. A finite element incremental algorithm with a recursive relationship for three‐dimensional (3D) linear and damage‐coupled viscoelastic behaviour is developed. This algorithm is used in a 3D user‐defined material model for the asphalt mastic to predict global linear and damage‐coupled viscoelastic behaviour of asphalt mixture. For linear viscoelastic study, the creep stiffnesses of mastic and asphalt mixture at different temperatures are measured in laboratory. A regression‐fitting method is employed to calibrate generalized Maxwell models with Prony series and generate master stiffness curves for mastic and asphalt mixture. A computational model is developed with image analysis of sectioned surface of a test specimen. The viscoelastic prediction of mixture creep stiffness with the calibrated mastic material parameters is compared with mixture master stiffness curve over a reduced time period. In regard to damage‐coupled viscoelastic behaviour, cyclic loading responses of linear and rate‐independent damage‐coupled viscoelastic materials are compared. Effects of particular microstructure parameters on the rate‐independent damage‐coupled viscoelastic behaviour are also investigated with finite element simulations of asphalt numerical samples. Further study describes loading rate effects on the asphalt viscoelastic properties and rate‐dependent damage behaviour. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江三峡工程地壳形变监测网络

长江三峡工程地壳形变监测网络，采用了当今高精度GPS、INSAR空间大地测量技术，并与精密水准测量，精密重力测量，精密激光测距和峒体连续形变监测等技术相结合，构成一个空间上点、线、面结合，时间上长、中、短兼顾的高精度，高时空分辨率的地壳形变监测网络。该网络既可获取三峡库区特别是库首区区域形变场和区域应变场的动态变化，监测库区主要断层活动，为水库诱发地震预测及研究服务，又可用于气象、滑坡地质灾害监测等，该监测网络于1997年底开始建设，2001年6月建成，到目前为止，已获得大量宝贵的观测资料，必将产生显著的经济效益和社会效益。     

三峡地区地形变监测与区域地壳稳定性分析

利用三峡地区多年的地形变观测资料，分析了该区的地形变特征。结果表明，各断层活动性甚微或基本不活动，区域地壳相对稳定     

利用地震矩张量反演鲜水河断裂带现今运动学特征

本文探讨了利用地震矩反演断裂形变带运动学参数的基本理论和方法，将其初步应用于鲜水河断裂形变带变形分析和运动机制的研究。结果表明，鲜水河断裂带呈现出走向拉伸、倾向压缩的形变格局，由地震矩反演的断裂带剪切形变速率（１０．９ｍｍ／ａ）与用地质学估算方法（１７ｍｍ／ａ）和现今地壳形变测量（８ｍｍ／ａ）的结果相当。同时，反演出的应变主方向能解释鲜水河断裂现今活动分段性特征以及多种滑动方式共存的现状，从而证明该方法是目前研究区域运动学问题切实有效的手段之一。     

岩体三维节点偶对分析及其应用

本文讨论了节点偶对分析的三维扩展。节点偶对分析是针对摩擦滑动节理单元的约束边界进行的序列矢量判定。在三维节理单元的分析中,几何约束和相应的力学判据极为复杂,采用节点偶对等效结合力方法才能迎刃而解。文中对三维转向节理模型的分析得到合理的结果,它表明本文所提出的方法可成功地应用于节理岩体的有限元分析。     

宁夏香山-天景山弧形断裂带新活动特征及1709年中卫南71/2级地震形变带

本文根据野外地质填图和水系位移测量结果,论述了香山-天景山弧形断裂带新生代有两个不同活动性质的阶段,即早期阶段的强烈挤压和晚期阶段的左旋走滑兼挤压。分析、讨论了不同活动阶段的时间界限和转变原因。指出了1709年中卫南71/_2级地震形变带的表现形式、延伸范围     

Crustal motion and deformation in Greece from a decade of GPS measurements, 1993–2003

The Hellenic plate boundary region, located in the collision zone between the Nubian/Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates, is one of the seismo-tectonically most active areas of Europe. During the last 15 years, GPS measurements have been used to determine the crustal motion in the area of Greece with the aim to better understand the geodynamical processes of this region. An extended reoccupation network covering whole Greece has been measured periodically in numerous GPS campaigns since the late eighties, and a continuous GPS network has been operated in the region of the Ionian Sea since 1995. In this paper, we present a new detailed high-quality solution of continuous and campaign-type measurements acquired between 1993 and 2003. During the GPS processing, a special effort was made to obtain consistent results with highest possible accuracies and reliabilities. Data of 54 mainly European IGS and EUREF sites were included in the GPS processing in order to obtain results which are internally consistent with the European kinematic field and order to allow for a regional interpretation. After an overview of the results of the IGS/EUREF sites, the results from more than 80 stations in Greece are presented in terms of velocities, time series, trajectories and strain rates. Previous geodetic, geological and seismological findings are generally confirmed and substantially refined. New important results include the observation of deformation zones to the north and to the south of the North Aegean Trough and in the West Hellenic arc region, arc-parallel extension of about 19 mm/yr along the Hellenic arc, and compression between the Ionian islands and the Greek mainland. Due to continuous long-term observations of 4–8 years, it was possible to extract height changes from the GPS time series. In Greece, we observe a differential subsidence of the order of 2 mm/yr between the northern and central Ionian islands across the Kefalonia fault zone. The differential subsidence of the central Ionian islands with respect to the northwestern Greek mainland amounts to 4 mm/yr.     

Experimental decipherment of the soft-sediment deformation observed in the upper part of the Talchir Formation (Lower Permian), Jharia Basin, India

Four types of soft-sediment folds of distinct geometry can be recognized in the upper part of the Talchir Formation (Lower Permian) of Jharia Basin, India. These folds, on systematic examination, indicate some events of progressive deformation. Experimental study reveals that if a layered stack of clay and overlying sand is allowed to flow slowly down a slope, differential velocity due to viscosity contrast leads to the deformation of the rheologic interface. The sharp planar contact gradually becomes wavy leading to the development of round-hinged folds involving sediments adjacent to it. With the advancement of the flow these folds gradually become overturned with the rotation of the axial plane in the direction of flow. Computer simulation suggests that progressive deformation of these folds by simple shearing may lead to the formation of tight isoclinal folds, which on dislocation along intrastratal normal faults may lead to the development of rootless isoclinal folds. The sheath folds observed in the studied section also indicate accentuation of the curved hinge due to simple shearing. The spatial distribution of these fold types in conjunction with the inferred direction of progressive deformation indicate basinward translation of the slump slice. If the same stack of sediments rapidly flows down the slope, the waveform generated at the interface quickly breaks in the form of roll-up recumbent fold due to Kelvin–Helmholtz instability.