0716号超强台风“罗莎”登陆前后的特殊路径分析

0716号超强台风“罗莎”是建国以来登陆浙闽交界最晚的一个台风．它经我国台湾岛东北侧打一个圈后登岛,然后在台湾海峡北上,于浙闽交界处登陆,沿温州海岸线缓慢北上后再次入海．“罗莎”的特殊路径一方面与台风附近物理量场分布有关,另一方面可能与全球气候变暖趋势的背景有关．本文分析发现0716号超强台风“罗莎”登陆大陆前后,其附近中低层的物理量场分布对移动路径有密切关系;美国NCEP再分析资料提供的很多物理量如温度、湿度、垂直速度等热力和动力要素对台风未来移动的路径有指示作用;多普勒雷达径向速度演变趋势对台风的短时移动路径预报也有很好的指导意义．     

Nonlinear random wave-induced drag force on a vegetation field

This paper provides a practical method by which the drag force on a vegetation field beneath nonlinear random waves can be estimated. This is achieved by using a simple drag formula together with an empirical drag coefficient given by Mendez et al. (Mendez, F.J., Losada, I.J., Losada, M.A., 1999. Hydrodynamics induced by wind waves in a vegetation field. J. Geophys. Res. 104 (C8), 18383–18396). Effects of nonlinear waves are included by using Stokes second order wave theory where the basic harmonic motion is assumed to be a stationary Gaussian narrow–band random process. An example of calculation is also presented.     

运用双特异分子探针技术对胶州湾三种硅藻的检测

利用本实验室首创的双特异分子探针技术对胶州湾常见的3种硅藻-旋链角毛藻(Chaeto-ceros curvisetus Cleve)、尖刺拟菱形藻(Pseudo-nitzschia pungens(Grunowex Cleve)Halse)和中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum(Greville)Cleve)进行定性与定量分析。结果表明,无论是对实验室样品还是自然样品进行检测,本技术均有较好的适用性,对3种目标藻的最低检测细胞数分别为4.2×104、9.4×103和6.0×104个细胞。统计分析表明,双特异分子探针技术对3种目标藻的分析结果与经典的显微镜镜检结果没有显著性差异。本技术利用了多孔酶标板进行检测,整个实验过程约7h,可在较短时间内分析大量样品中的多种微藻,为同时监测多种赤潮藻开辟了一条新途径。     

Long-term bottom water warming in the north Ross Sea

We measured potential temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen profiles from the surface to the bottom at two locations in the north Ross Sea (65.2°S, 174.2°E and 67.2°S, 172.7°W) in December 2004. Comparison of our data with previous results from the same region reveals an increase in potential temperature and decreases in salinity and dissolved oxygen concentration in the bottom layer (deeper than 3000 m) over the past four decades. The changes were significantly different from the analytical precisions. Detailed investigation of the temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and σ ₃ value distributions and the bottom water flow in the north Ross Sea suggests a long-term change in water mass mixing balance. That is to say, it is speculated that the influence of cool, saline, high-oxygen bottom water (high-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) formed in the southwestern Ross Sea has possibly been decreased, while the influences of relatively warmer and fresher bottom water (low-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) and the Adélie Land Bottom Water coming from the Australia-Antarctic Basin have increased. The possible impact of global warming on ocean circulation needs much more investigation.     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

利用SWAN波浪模式研究北部湾海域台风浪场的波浪方向谱特征

以高精度再分析风场为驱动,利用SWAN模式模拟了台风“达维”Damrey（2005）经过北部湾海域时的波浪场。通过与实测的风和波浪实测对比发现,波浪后报结果与实测结果符合较好。文章给出了台风浪期间波高、周期、波长和波向等要素的分布特征,讨论了以台风眼为中心不同海域的波浪方向谱特征。本文最后分析了台风期间实测波浪能谱的变化特征。     

波速线性变化介质中地震波传播特征

根据变速介质中地震波传播所满足的变系数波动方程,推导出波速线性变化介质中一维波动方程的解析解,讨论了波速不均匀性对地震波传播的影响：地震波振幅衰减大小与介质速度梯度有关;频率转折点两侧地震波传播性质;频率与地震波波速关系。     

用样条函数计算结果研究冲绳海槽热源机制

对冲绳海槽１９８４－１９９０年的实测热流值，利用数字滤波方法计算，得到反映该区深部地壳热状态的区域热流值为８０－１６０ｍＷ／ｍ＾２，用Ｂ样条函数法对其作数值模拟，计算出海槽地温场模式，并以此研究冲绳海槽海底高热流的形成机制，得出冲绳海槽热流值的区域性变化与綦中地质构造格局呈正相关，高热流是该区现代构造活动所致，其明显特征是地壳减薄，地幔上拱等结论。     

海上平台桶基负压沉贯阻力与土体稳定数值计算研究

用有限元分析方法对桶形基础负压沉贯过程中流场进行动态模拟,提出桶形基础沉贯阻力计算方法和土体稳定有限计算方法,提出桶内土体稳定性判断准则,计算结果表明所提方法是合理的,并具有工程实用性。     

不同台风合成风场方案在南海的适用性研究

我国南海地区常受台风侵扰,台风场是研究台风浪灾害以及风暴增水灾害的必要条件之一。因遥感风场存在台风大风圈附近风速明显偏小的问题,所以在台风场相关研究中,多采用台风模型风场和背景风场相结合的方式——即合成风场。本文选取南海相关研究中常用的3种台风场模型,对比其特点,并采用NECP CFSR作为背景风场,将合成风场和实际观测风速进行对比,结果显示在南海地区采用Jelesnianski模型得出的风场和实际风场吻合度最好,建议在该风场基础上考虑南海的地理特殊性,进行台风场模型的改进。