正常动态背景值预估的门限反馈(MF)模型及使用效果

本文讨论了地震异常和干扰因子失稳对前兆序列建模的影响,提出了采用门限回归和反馈修正观测值减弱这种影响的门限反馈(MF)模型。实例计算效果良好。     

Stochastic differential dynamic programming for multi-reservoir system control

: As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.     

On the Second-Year Warming in Late 2019 over the Tropical Pacific and Its Attribution to an Indian Ocean Dipole Event※

After its maturity, El Ni?o usually decays rapidly in the following summer and evolves into a La Ni?a pattern. However, this was not the case for the 2018/19 El Ni?o event. Based on multiple reanalysis data sets, the space-time evolution and triggering mechanism for the unusual second-year warming in late 2019, after the 2018/19 El Ni?o event, are investigated in the tropical Pacific. After a short decaying period associated with the 2018/19 El Ni?o condition, positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) re-intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2019. Compared with the composite pattern of El Ni?o in the following year, two key differences are evident in the evolution of SSTAs in 2019. First, is the persistence of the surface warming over the central equatorial Pacific in May, and second, is the re-intensification of the positive SSTAs over the eastern equatorial Pacific in September. Observational results suggest that the re-intensification of anomalous westerly winds over the western and central Pacific, induced remotely by an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, acted as a triggering mechanism for the second-year warming in late 2019. That is, the IOD-related cold SSTAs in the eastern Indian Ocean established and sustained anomalous surface westerly winds over the western equatorial Pacific, which induced downwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward along the equator. At the same time, the subsurface ocean provided plenty of warm water in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses further confirm that positive zonal advection, induced by the anomalous westerly winds, and thermocline feedback played important roles in leading to the second-year warming in late 2019. This study provides new insights into the processes responsible for the diversity of El Ni?o evolution, which is important for improving the physical understanding and seasonal prediction of El Ni?o events.     

Dynamics of phosphorus exchange between sediment and water in a gravel-bed river

ABSTRACT

Phosphorus (P) stores in gravel-bed rivers are released for uptake by periphyton when pH levels exceed 8.5. The Tukituki River has low alkalinity water and frequently experiences periphyton blooms, and daytime pH?>?9 during summer low-flows. We measured dissolved reactive P (DRP) and EPC₀, the water concentration of DRP at which no net release or sorption from the river bed occurs, in sediment samples from the Tukituki River subject to controlled pH levels before (2014) and after (2017) changes to two wastewater discharges that reduced P release to the river by 95%. DRP released from 2014 sediments at pH 8.5–10 were 30?±?10?mg/m³ above background (pH 8) whereas those released from 2017 sediments were 5?±?3?mg/m³ above background. EPC₀ levels in 2014 and 2017 were 11?±?6 and 7?±?2?mg/m³, respectively. Field estimates of released DRP calculated from continuous pH and the Redfield equation suggested that most of the readily available DRP released from sediments at elevated pH is derived from material attached to recently deposited sediment. Subsequently, a reduction in wastewater inputs or agricultural runoff should reduce sediment DRP stores, and hence sediment fluxes, within a few years and mitigate periphyton blooms in addition to directly lowering water column concentrations.     

华北地区区域水准大气折光影响分析

大气折光对水准测量的影响是目前最重要且很难消除的误差之一。由折光影响产生的系统闭合差可能超过随机观测误差,那么在沿相同水准路线作重复观测的情况下,就可能会出现同符号闭合差。针对这一问题,该文提出了分析闭合环统计性质,从而提取出大气折光可能影响大的测段的方法。为了定量分析大气折光对水准观测结果的影响,提出不测温差的大气折光改正方法,对提取出的测段进行折光影响模拟。结果表明,大气折光对部分测环的水准环闭合差有系统性偏离影响,部分测段大气折光影响与地形存在明显的相关性。     

冬季南极涛动对欧亚大陆地表气温的影响

基于1962~2011年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,本文研究了北半球冬季南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）对欧亚大陆地表气温的影响及其物理过程。线性回归结果表明,在扣除冬季ENSO信号后,1月AAO与2月欧亚大陆地表气温呈显著正相关关系。当1月AAO处于正位相时,东南太平洋出现显著的位势高度正异常,这对应着南半球副热带高压的增强。该高度正异常在空间上从南半球向北扩展至北半球东太平洋地区,在时间上可一直持续到2月,它在南北半球相互作用过程中起重要作用。2月,北半球东太平洋高度正异常随高度向北倾斜,在对流层上层位于美国西南侧,该位置对应着北大西洋风暴轴入口处。进一步的相关分析表明,美国西南侧的高度正异常与地中海西北侧的瞬变波活动显著正相关,进而对应着斯堪的纳维亚半岛地区的高度负异常的形成。该负异常通过向下游频散波能量,引起贝加尔湖西侧高度正异常,形成典型的负位相斯堪的纳维亚环流型。该环流型对应60°N附近的西风异常,抑制了北侧冷空气南下,进而引起欧亚大陆地表气温正异常,反之亦然。     

正弦干扰下时滞系统的状态预测观测器与前馈-反馈预测控制器设计

研究控制变量含有时滞的线性系统在外部正弦干扰下的最优减振预测控制问题。利用系统的控制向量和被控对象的预测输出向量 ,设计了 1种全维状态预测观测器。并将该状态观测器用于时滞控制系统的最优前馈 -反馈预测控制中。频域分析表明 ,应用该状态预测观测器可将闭环系统的时滞项移至系统闭环结构之外 ,从而其优化控制规律完全可以按无时滞系统进行设计。时域分析表明 ,设计的预测控制器对外部正弦干扰有较强的鲁棒性 ,得到的结果关于二次型平均性能指标是次优的     

测绘专业实践教学评价体系及反馈机制研究

实践教学既是测绘专业人才培养中重要的一环,也是培养具有创新思维和能力的测绘专业学生的有效途径。本文通过分析当前测绘专业实践教学评价中存在的问题,基于其重实践、重创新的特点,提出了测绘专业实践教学评价体系,在此基础上通过对测绘专业实践教学反馈机制内涵及构建方法进行研究,最终形成一套与测绘专业实践教学模式相匹配的的评价体系和反馈机制。     

欧盟地图持续更新计划——FeedMAP

本文简要介绍欧盟资助的导航数字地图持续更新计划——FeedMAP。该计划始于2006年3月,其目标是建立一个协同工作的地图反馈和更新构架,改善导航数字地图供应商和使用者的关系,为导航和车载应用创造一个可持续维护的地图数据更新来源,这一概念将有助于形成一个运输效率高和安全的道路环境。