华南前汛期强降水个例模式降水预报误差成因初探

2015年5月19—20日,华南出现一次暴雨过程。检验表明欧洲中期天气预报中心全球确定性预报模式(以下简称EC模式)预报的20日强降水落区在广东境内较实况明显偏北,高估了天气尺度系统附近的降水强度,漏报了其南侧暖区内中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system,MCS)造成的降水,华东中尺度模式预报明显优于EC模式。利用高分辨率中尺度天气研究预报模式(以下简称WRF模式)对该暴雨过程进行了模拟,对比EC模式降水物理过程,初步探索了EC模式降水预报误差的成因,结果表明:20日位于广东暖区内的对流组织发展成MCS,并造成明显的低层冷池出流和中高层潜热加热,二者共同作用使得中低层气旋式环流在广东中东部发展,配合其南侧的强西南风水汽输送,在气旋式切变附近不断触发新的对流并南移使得广东中南部暖区内出现强降水,WRF模式能较好地模拟出该过程,而EC模式未能预报出暖区对流及其反馈,从而导致其漏报了广东中南部的强降水;EC模式预报的降水与天气尺度环流之间的正反馈进一步加大了降水的预报偏差。EC模式预报的20日白天的强降水主要位于华南北部切变线附近,且以层状云降水为主,降水产生的潜热使得对流层低层切变线附近减压更明显,预报的切变线辐合较分析场明显偏强,使得其预报的切变线附近降水较实况偏强。     

教师反馈对英语语音能力作用的实证研究

通过实证研究探讨教师反馈对英语语音学习的影响和二语语音能力构建的作用。认为:教师纠错性反馈不应该成为教师反馈的唯一途径,教师建议性反馈同样能够促进二语语音学习和习得;教师课堂的显性反馈和隐性反馈对于不同学习风格的学习者的语音能力有不同的构建作用;此外,不同层次的学习者因教师口头反馈、书面反馈和师生会谈等反馈方式的差异,二语语音能力发展也有所不同。     

GS型重力仪的静电反馈与静电标定

本文介绍了静电反馈及静电标定技术在GS型重力仪上的具体应用,着重阐述了它的工作原理。应用结果表明,装配有静电反馈及静电标定系统的重力仪,不但观测资料精度大大提高,而且仪器的标定既简单又准确。     

System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds

This study uses a system dynamics approach to explore hydrological processes in the geographic locations where the main contribution to flooding is coming from the snowmelt. Temperature is identified as a critical factor that affects watershed hydrological processes. Based on the dynamic processes of the hydrologic cycle occurring in a watershed, the feedback relationships linking the watershed structure, as well as the climate factors, to the streamflow generation were identified prior to the development of a system dynamics model. The model is used to simulate flood patterns generated by snowmelt under temperature change in the spring. Model structure captures a vertical water balance using five tanks representing snow, interception, surface, subsurface and groundwater storage. Calibration and verification results show that temperature change and snowmelt play a key role in flood generation. Results indicate that simulated values match observed data very well. The goodness‐of‐fit between simulated and observed peak flow data is measured using coefficient of efficiency, coefficient of determination and square of the residual mass curve coefficient. For the Assiniboine River all three measures were in the interval between 0·92 and 0·96 and for the Red River between 0·89 and 0·97. The model is capable of capturing the essential dynamics of streamflow formation. Model input requires a set of initial values for all state variables and the time series of daily temperature and precipitation information. Data from the Red River Basin, shared by Canada and the USA, are used in the model development and testing. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diffuse Baryons in Cosmic Structures

I review the processes that govern the amount and the thermal state of the hot plasma pervading clusters and groups of galaxies: the gravitational heating driven by the DM merging histories, the radiative cooling of baryons, and the energy fed back by SNe and by AGNs or quasars. I argue that the X-ray emissions and the entropy levels now observed from clusters to groups require the AGNs to contribute substantially to preheat the gas before it falls into clusters, and the quasars to blow some plasma out of groups and galaxies.     

An improved SVM model for relevance feedback in remote sensing image retrieval

With the rapid development of satellite remote sensing technology and an ever-increasing number of Earth observation satellites being launched, the global volume of remotely sensed imagery has been growing exponentially. Processing the variety of remotely sensed data has increasingly been complex and difficult. It is also hard to efficiently and intelligently retrieve what users need from a massive database of images. This paper introduces an improved support vector machine (SVM) model, which optimizes the model parameters and selects the feature subset based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method and genetic algorithm (GA) for remote sensing image retrieval. The results from an image retrieval experiment show that our method outperforms traditional methods such as GRID, PSO, and GA in terms of consistency and stability.     

Relationship between solar radiation and dimethylsulfide concentrations using in situ data for the pristine region of the southern hemisphere

The biological processes have been proposed as climate variability contributors. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is the main biogenic sulfur compound in the atmosphere; it is mainly produced by the marine biosphere and plays an important role in the atmospheric sulfur cycle. Currently it is accepted that terrestrial biota not only adapts to environmental conditions but also influences them through regulations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. In the present study we used a wavelet method to investigate the relationship between DMS, Low cloud cover (LCC), Ultraviolet Radiation A (UVA), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the so called pristine zone of the Southern Hemisphere. We found that the series analyzed have different periodicities which can be associated with large scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño (ENSO) or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and/or to solar activity. Our results show an intermittent but sustained DMS-SST correlation and a DMSUVA anti correlation; but DMS-TSI and DMS-LCC show nonlinear relationships. The time-span of the series allow us to study only periodicities shorter than 11 years, then we limit our analysis to the possibility that solar radiation influences the Earth climate in periods shorter than the 11-year solar cycle. Our results also suggest a positive feedback interaction between DMS and solar radiation.     

Actuator dynamics compensation based on upper bound delay for real‐time hybrid simulation

Real‐time hybrid simulation represents a powerful technique capable of evaluating the structural dynamic performance by combining the physical simulation of a complex and rate‐dependent portion of a structure with the numerical simulation of the remaining portion of the same structure. Initially, this paper shows how the stability of real‐time hybrid simulation with time delay depends both on compensation techniques and on time integration methods. In particular, even when time delay is exactly known, some combinations of numerical integration and displacement prediction schemes may reduce the response stability with conventional compensation methods and lead to unconditional instability in the worst cases. Therefore, to deal with the inaccuracy of prediction and the uncertainty of delay estimation, a nearly exact compensation scheme is proposed, in which the displacement is compensated by means of an upper bound delay and the desired displacement is picked out by an optimal process. Finally, the advantages of the proposed scheme over conventional delay compensation techniques are shown through numerical simulation and actual tests. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

流量可调燃气发生器压力闭环模糊控制算法

为了改进流量可调燃气发生器的调节精度,引入燃气发生器压力闭环控制,针对流量可调燃气发生器压力闭环控制特点,在压力闭环中引入了模糊积分控制,此控制算法响应速度快,超调量较小,不同工况及长时间工作下系统仍然有较好的动态特性。      

Calculating the Climatology and Anomalies of Surface Cloud Radiative Effect Using Cloud Property Histograms and Cloud Radiative Kernels

Cloud radiative kernels (CRK) built with radiative transfer models have been widely used to analyze the cloud radiative effect on top of atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, and it is expected that the CRKs would also be useful in the analyses of surface radiative fluxes, which determines the regional surface temperature change and variability. In this study, CRKs at the surface and TOA were built using the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM). Longwave cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the surface is primarily driven by cloud base properties, while TOA CRE is primarily decided by cloud top properties. For this reason, the standard version of surface CRK is a function of latitude, longitude, month, cloud optical thickness (τ) and cloud base pressure (CBP), and the TOA CRK is a function of latitude, longitude, month, τ and cloud top pressure (CTP). Considering that the cloud property histograms provided by climate models are functions of CTP instead of CBP at present, the surface CRKs on CBP-τ histograms were converted to CTP-τ fields using the statistical relationship between CTP, CBP and τ obtained from collocated CloudSat and MODIS observations. For both climate model outputs and satellites observations, the climatology of surface CRE and cloud-induced surface radiative anomalies calculated with the surface CRKs and cloud property histograms are well correlated with those calculated from surface radiative fluxes. The cloud-induced surface radiative anomalies reproduced by surface CRKs and MODIS cloud property histograms are not affected by spurious trends that appear in Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) surface irradiances products.