Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Soil quality changes in land degradation as indicated by soil chemical, biochemical and microbiological properties in a karst area of southwest Guizhou, China

Not only the nutritional status and biological activity but also the soil ecological functioning or soil health has been impacted profoundly by land degradation in the karst area of southwest China where the karst ecosystems are generally considered as extremely vulnerable to land degradation under intensified land-use changes. The objectives of this study are to elucidate the changes in overall soil quality by a holistic approach of soil nutritional, biological activity, and soil health indicators in the karst area as impacted by intense cultivation and vegetation degradation. Topsoil samples were collected on selected eco-tesserae in a sequence of land degradation in a karst area of southwest Guizhou in 2004. The soil nutrient pools of organic carbon (C_org), extractable extracellular carbon (C_ext), total soil nitrogen (N_t), alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen (N_ah), total phosphorus (P_t), available phosphorus (P_a) were analyzed by wet soil chemistry. The soil biological properties were studied by means of measurements of microbial biomass carbon (both by fumigation–extraction, FE-C_mic, and by calculation from substrate-incubation respiration, SIR-C_mic) of respiration [respiration without addition of substrates, basal respiration (BR), and potential respiration (PR) with substrate-incubation] and of soil enzyme activities (invertase, urease, and alkaline phosphatase). Soil health status was assessed by simple indices of C_mic/C_org and BR/C_mic in conjunction with bacterial community structures determined by polymerase chain reaction and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. While the nutritional pool parameters, such as C_org and C_ext, described basically the changes in soil life-supporting capacity with cultivation interference and vegetation declined, those parameters of biological activity such as FE-C_mic, SIR, and SIR-C_mic as well as bacterial community structures measured by molecular method evidenced well the changes in soil functioning for ecosystem health with the land degradation.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Karst groundwater protection in the Kupa River catchment area and sustainable development

One of the most significant water resources in the Republic of Croatia is the catchment area of the Kupa River, located in the region bordering the Republic of Slovenia. About 88% of the total amount of water in this catchment originates in Croatia and just 12% from Slovenia; therefore, the largest part of the catchment area (about 1000 km²) is on the Croatian side of the border. It is a typical karst area of the Dinarides with aquifers characterized by a relatively rapid water exchange, high groundwater flow velocities and aquifers open to human impact from the surface. Consequently, the aquifers are highly vulnerable and at risk. Due to the availability of large quantities of high-quality spring water (about 6 m³/s), the entire area has a strategic importance within the context of any future development strategy pertaining to the western part of Croatia. The catchment area on the Croatian side was investigated using a wide range of research methods that included a classical hydrogeological approach, the detailed hydrologic calculation of water balance to the hydrogeochemical analyses and modelling. The objective was to determine protection zones and protection measures for the whole area. The difficulties are increased due to the fact that the karst catchment area is crossed by major traffic corridors, oil pipelines and a railway and that many settlements and a highly developed wood industry are present. The combination of protecting water resources with adequate prevention measures and necessary remedial activities that should satisfy the very strict requirements necessary for the protection of the karst aquifers while still allowing for present and future human activities is difficult – but not impossible – to achieve. One good example is the present highway with a closed dewatering system and waste water treatment before the water passes into the karst underground system.     

紫色丘陵区不同侵蚀沉积地段土壤结构特征

以中国科学院盐亭紫色土农业生态试验站小流域为例，研究不同土壤侵蚀沉积地段（斜坡和沟谷不同部位）的土壤结构特征，以了解侵蚀沉积对土壤结构的影响。结果表明，在植被覆盖较好的坡体顶部，土壤侵蚀较弱，团聚度达到30．1％，MWD变化为3．4mm，土壤结构良好；沟谷底部由于沉积而有较多细土物质并具有适宜的水分条件，有利于土壤团聚体的形成，结构状况亦较好，团聚度达到50．3％，结构保持率为35．4％；而坡腰侵蚀较严重，团聚度仅为13．6％，结构保持率为14．1％，土壤结构状况较差。     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

洪山预测区煤层赋存的可能性分析

分析了洪山预测区西部洪山岩体地质特征及其向外围扩散的范围和程度，研究了北掌勘查区和焦窑煤矿两邻区煤层受岩浆岩影响的程度，认为洪山岩体对预测区煤系及煤层赋存的影响较小，岩体外围仍有煤系赋存。为下一步找煤指明了方向。     

利用三维地震在戈壁沙漠区解决复杂地质构造问题

在分析戈壁沙漠地区地球物理特征的基础上，针对性的提出了解决煤田地质构造问题的方法，包括三维地震野外施工方法的选取、施工因素的选择、资料处理手段；并以获得的实际地质成果证实三维地震在解决复杂地质构造问题的可行性。