Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GEOPHYSICAL EXPLORATION

正20141074Bao Xijie(Research Institute of Exploration and Development,Daqing Oilfield Company,PetroChina,Daqing 163712,China)Gather Optimal Processing and Application Effect of Prestack AVA Instantaneous Inversion     

HYDROGEOLOGY & ENGINEERING GEOLOGY

正1.HYDROGEOLOGY20142452Chang Chengcao(Institute of Coalfield Geological Survey and Design of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,China)Hydrogeological Type Division of Coal Mine No.2Mine in Yitong Manchu Autonomous County,Jilin Province(Jilin Geology,ISSN1001-2427,CN22-1099/P,32(4),2013,p.129-131,3refs.)     

Introducing a new conceptual instantaneous unit hydrograph model based on a hydraulic approach

ABSTRACT

A novel approach is introduced for simulation of instantaneous unit hydrographs (IUHs). The model consists of a series of linear reservoirs that are connected to each other, and is referred to as the inter-connected linear reservoir model (ICLRM). By assuming the flow between two reservoirs is a linear function of the difference between the water levels in the reservoirs, a system of first-order linear differential equations is obtained as the ICLRM governing equation. By solving the equations, the discharge from the last reservoir is considered as an IUH. A small-scale laboratory device was constructed for the simulation of IUHs using the model. By studying four hydrographs extracted from the literature, and simulating them using both the ICLRM and the Nash model, it is concluded that the ICLRM can predict these hydrographs more accurately than the Nash model. Due to the simplicity of the construction and operation of the ICLRM and, more importantly, its visual aspect, the ICLRM may be considered as an effective educational tool for studying IUHs.     

南美Oriente盆地北部海绿石砂岩油藏特征及成藏规律

南美厄瓜多尔Oriente盆地斜坡带发育的白垩系Napo组高伽马特征的UT海绿石砂岩段是成熟探区新发现的隐蔽含油层段。本文分析了海绿石砂岩储层的矿物组成、孔隙结构、成岩作用、物性特点,并结合烃源岩评价与石油空间分布探讨海绿石砂岩油藏的成藏特征。海绿石粘土矿物以颗粒形式存在,与石英共同构成海绿石砂岩的颗粒组分,海绿石砂岩的孔隙结构具有双峰特征,束缚水含量高,属于中-低孔、中-低渗储层类型,孔隙类型主要是剩余粒间孔。海绿石砂岩储层中石英次生加大属Ⅱ级,长石碎屑颗粒发生溶蚀作用,含铁碳酸盐类胶结物发育,结合泥岩低的I/S混层比和高的最高峰温值T_max,指示海绿石砂岩层段属于中成岩阶段A期的产物。与海绿石砂岩油藏紧邻的大面积分布的Ⅱ₁腐泥型成熟烃源岩就是缓翼斜坡带的生烃中心,大面积连续发育的海绿石砂岩与之构成优越的源储组合,有利于上生下储式成藏。海绿石砂岩油藏表现为近源性、成藏晚期性等特点,规模发育的海绿石砂岩储层得以成藏的主要运聚机制是体积流和扩散流运聚机制。这对盆地其它油区同类油藏的发现具有重要的借鉴意义。     

四川盆地海相碳酸盐岩的油气成藏条件

四川盆地位于亚洲大陆中南部,是我国最大的外流盆地。油气资源评价结果(2008)表明,四川盆地海相地层待发现资源量约为50111.84×108m~3,资源勘探潜力巨大。本文从地层的划分、层序格架及层序岩相古地理特征等方面,对四川盆地海相碳酸盐岩油气成藏条件做了进一步研究。认为研究区烃源岩包括下志留统、中二叠统、上二叠统龙潭组和上三叠统须家河组等4套岩石,及局部发育的上二叠统大隆组。储集层粉为构造成因类和沉积成因类,构造成因主要包括裂缝性储层;沉积成因类储层主要是礁滩储层、内幕白云岩储层和风化壳岩溶储层。中二叠统气藏主要为自生自储的裂缝性气藏和台内滩相气藏;茅口组顶部和雷口坡组顶部发育风化壳型气藏;吴家坪组、长兴组及飞仙关组地层含礁滩型气藏;嘉陵江组和雷口坡组地层含内幕白云岩型气藏。     

准噶尔盆地东部沙帐地区中二叠统平地泉组一段致密油源储组合模式

综合利用录井、镜下薄片及压汞等资料,对准噶尔盆地东部沙帐地区中二叠统平地泉组一段致密油储集层岩性、储集空间和孔隙结构等特征进行了分析,在此基础上结合平一段致密油纵向岩性组合特征及源储关系,总结了平一段致密油源储组合模式。研究发现平一段致密油储集层岩性以碎屑岩为主,云质类岩石次之,储层孔隙结构具"粗态型"、"偏细态型"和"细态型",储集空间表现为常规孔隙与纳米孔隙并存;平一段源储组合表现为"泥包砂"、"砂包泥"和"砂泥互层"。研究表明:平一段储集层表现为致密储层特征,纳米孔喉是致密油储层的主体孔喉,平一段致密油具有源储一体型、源储交接型和源储隔离型三类组合模式。     

变形监测技术在库岸防治工程中的应用

针对库岸稳定性检测的需求,该文将现代变形监测技术应用于乌江彭水县水电站鹿角镇库岸防治工程,对地表进行抗滑桩顶和岸坡表层水平位移和垂直位移监测,地下进行岸坡深层水平位移监测。文章对边坡变形监测进行分析,主要包括岸坡表层变形情况、岸坡深层位移情况、重要建筑物基础不均匀沉降情况及抗滑桩顶变形初步分析。对库安防治工程进行预警分析,可保证彭水县水电站的安全。     

Origin and evolution of geothermal fluids from Las Tres Vírgenes and Cerro Prieto fields,Mexico – Co-genetic volcanic activity and paleoclimatic constraints

Major and trace elements, noble gases, and stable (δD, δ¹⁸O) and cosmogenic (³H, ¹⁴C) isotopes were measured from geothermal fluids in two adjacent geothermal areas in NW-Mexico, Las Tres Vírgenes (LTV) and Cerro Prieto (CP). The goal is to trace the origin of reservoir fluids and to place paleoclimate and structural-volcanic constraints in the region. Measured ³He/⁴He (R) ratios normalized to the atmospheric value (R_a = 1.386 × 10⁻⁶) vary between 2.73 and 4.77 and are compatible with mixing between a mantle component varying between 42 and 77% of mantle helium and a crustal, radiogenic He component with contributions varying between 23% and 58%. Apparent U–Th/⁴He ages for CP fluids (0.7–7 Ma) suggest the presence of a sustained ⁴He flux from a granitic basement or from mixing with connate brines, deposited during the Colorado River delta formation (1.5–3 Ma). Radiogenic in situ ⁴He production age modeling at LTV, combined with the presence of radiogenic carbon (1.89 ± 0.11 pmC – 35.61 ± 0.28 pmC) and the absence of tritium strongly suggest the Quaternary infiltration of meteoric water into the LTV geothermal reservoir, ranging between 4 and 31 ka BP. The present geochemical heterogeneity of LTV fluids can be reconstructed by mixing Late Pleistocene – Early Holocene meteoric water (58–75%) with a fossil seawater component (25–42%), as evidenced by Br/Cl and stable isotope trends. CP geothermal water is composed of infiltrated Colorado River water with a minor impact by halite dissolution, whereas a vapor-dominated sample is composed of Colorado River water and vapor from deeper levels. δD values for the LTV meteoric end-member, which are 20‰–44‰ depleted with respect to present-day precipitation, as well as calculated annual paleotemperatures 6.9–13.6 °C lower than present average temperatures in Baja California point to the presence of humid and cooler climatic conditions in the Baja California peninsula during the final stage of the Last Glacial Pluvial period. Quaternary recharge of the LTV geothermal reservoir is related to elevated precipitation rates during cooler-humid climate intervals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. The probable replacement of connate water or pore fluids by infiltrating surface water might have been triggered by enhanced fracture and fault permeability through contemporaneous tectonic–volcanic activity in the Las Tres Vírgenes region. Fast hydrothermal alteration processes caused a secondary, positive δ¹⁸O-shift from 4‰ to 6‰ for LTV and from 2‰ to 4‰ for CP geothermal fluids since the Late Glacial infiltration.