基于AR（p）的卡尔曼滤波在GPS变形监测中的应用

由于AR（p）模型结构比较简单且计算比较方便,在变形分析中,目前常采用此模型建立变形模型。然而单纯的AR模型把模型参数作为定值,变形数据拟合误差及变形预测误差可能会比较大。介绍了将卡尔曼滤波引入AR模型,利用观测数据建立AR模型,即建立观测方程;以AR模型的参数为状态向量建立状态方程。从而形成动态系统的卡尔曼滤波函数模型,动态计算出AR模型的参数以便预测。此方法快速、实时,且占有较少内存,充分利用了AR模型和卡尔曼滤波二者的优点。     

Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.     

High-resolution record of tectonic and sedimentary processes in growth strata

Growth strata are used to determine the kinematics of synsedimentary structures such as faults. Classical methods of analysis such as thickness versus throw plot consider that the available space created by fault slip in the hanging wall of faults is instantaneously filled up by sediments. This has lead many previous works to identify a cyclic activity for growth faults. Here we perform a careful analysis of the variation of strata thicknesses on each side of a very well documented normal growth fault in the Niger delta. We show that these thickness variations are induced by the alternation of sedimentary processes during continuous fault slip. Suspended-load processes induce either uniform or slightly variable thickness of a large majority of mudstone layers. Bedload processes result in a preferential thickening of sand layers in the hanging wall. These high quality data thus provide strong grounds for doubting the polycyclic growth diagnosed for some faults at the scale of sedimentary cycles and supports the notion that fault displacement rates can be very well behaved. Our study emphasizes the important conclusion that stable fault growth, and related displacement rates, can appear to be punctuated when viewed at the scale of sedimentary cycles. It follows that care should be taken when attempting to derive displacement rates on temporal scales equivalent to those of alternating sedimentological cycles.     

墨西哥湾天然气水合物矿产资源预测模型及其应用

墨西哥湾是世界上研究天然气水合物较深入的海区,调查资料丰富,已在50多处采集到天然气水合物样品,具备建立天然气水合物矿产资源预测模型的条件。选择34处已知天然气水合物矿点和34处已知无矿点作为训练区,建立矿点存在与否的预测模型。模型的相关系数值表明墨西哥湾天然气水合物与盐底辟关系密切。将该模型应用于整个墨西哥湾北部,初步获得了天然气水合物存在可能性概率分布图;概率大于0.7的预测单元包含已知矿点中的30个,利用该阈值圈定了墨西哥湾天然气水合物潜在资源分布区。     

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基于集合预报极端天气预测指数的浙江分类强对流预报模型

利用2016—2021年ECWMF集合预报资料、浙江自动站实况资料等,计算浙江短时强降水、雷暴大风和冰雹等强对流天气相关物理量的极端天气预报指数（EFI：Extreme Forecast Index）,分析EFI分布特征,并构建了分类强对流预报模型。结果表明：强对流天气与物理量的EFI有密切联系,发生短时强降水时,对流有效位能、整层可降水量、850 hPa与500 hPa温差和位温差的EFI较大,而垂直风切变的EFI为负值,因而较小的垂直风切变更有利于出现极端降水;发生雷暴大风和冰雹时,对流有效位能、850 hPa与500 hPa温差和位温差以及850 hPa温度露点差的EFI较大,700 hPa露点温度的EFI为负值,与上层干冷下层暖湿的有利层结条件有关。利用支持向量机多分类方法,将强对流天气相关物理量的EFI作为特征值开展训练,构建的预报模型对于非局地强对流天气有较好的预报效果,其中短时强降水的误判率明显低于雷暴大风。     

广平地震台地磁异常与地震关系的研究

利用加卸载响应比、日变幅逐日比、空间相关分析法,研究分析了广平台1982-2006年地磁垂直分量观测资料与河北省及邻近地区Ms≥5.0地震之间的关系,发现它们之间有较好的对应关系;同时给出了适用于广平地磁台的地震分析预报参数,为今后广平台依磁报震提供了依据.     

断裂和裂缝的分形特征

在详细剖析断裂和裂缝组成和结构相似性的基础上, 计算了贝尔断陷T₅和T₂两层构造图上断裂信息维和10口井布达特群岩心裂缝信息维, 分析了影响断裂和裂缝信息维的因素, 达到了从断裂信息维去预测裂缝分布的目的.影响断裂和裂缝信息维的因素包括密度、延伸长度、断层性质以及岩性, 但从根本上讲断层性质及岩性对信息维影响体现在断裂的密度上, 因此信息维应该是断裂发育程度的度量, 利用断裂信息维与裂缝信息维关系、裂缝信息维与裂缝密度关系预测裂缝的分布, 有利的裂缝发育带有3个区域, 与现今见油气井分布吻合.      

准噶尔盆地西北缘扇体形成演化与扇体油气藏勘探

准噶尔盆地西北缘广泛发育二叠纪-侏罗纪冲积扇、水下扇、扇三角洲等砾质粗碎屑沉积,其形成演化严格受不同时期活动的同生断裂控制.二叠纪以乌尔禾组扇体最为发育,呈由盆缘向盆地方向逐渐增强的前展式推覆冲断及渐进式扇体迁移响应模式.三叠纪-侏罗纪以百口泉组、克拉玛依组扇体最为发育,呈由盆内向盆缘方向逐渐减弱的退覆式冲断活动及后退式扇体迁移响应模式.已知扇体油气藏主要富集于水下扇扇根及扇中、扇三角洲平原及前缘4个亚相带,及二叠系佳木河组、乌尔禾组、三叠系百口泉组、克拉玛依组、侏罗系八道湾组、头屯河组6个层位.二叠-三叠纪扇体含油层多、规模大、储量丰度高,侏罗纪扇体反之.受断裂、不整合、岩相岩性、物性4种因素控制,扇体主要形成断块、地层不整合及构造岩性油气藏.断阶带及扇根-扇中相带主要发育构造(断块)油藏,为扇体与断层相配置的垂向运聚成藏模式;斜坡区及扇中-扇缘相带主要发育岩性油藏,为扇体与不整合相配置的侧向运聚成藏模式.西北缘扇体成藏条件好,探明程度总体较低,剩余资源潜力大,进而指出了七大有利勘探区块和方向.     

Estimation and prediction of plastic waste annual input into the sea from China

Marine plastic debris has been a pervasive issue since the last century, and research on its sources and fates plays a vital role in the establishment of mitigation measures. However, data on the quantity of plastic waste that enters the sea on a certain timescale remain largely unavailable in China. Here, we established a model using material flow analysis method based on life cycle assessment to follow plastic product from primary plastic to plastic waste with statistical data and monitoring data from accurate sources. This model can be used to estimate and forecast the annual input of plastic waste into the sea from China until 2020. In 2011, 0.547 3–0.751 5 million tons of plastic waste entered the seas in China, with a growth rate of 4.55% per year until 2017. And the amount will decrease to0.257 1 to 0.353 1 million tons in 2020 under the influence of governmental management. The amount of plastic waste discharged from coastal areas calculated in this study was much larger than that from river, thus it is suggested to strengthen the governance and control of plastic waste in coastal fishery activities in China in order to reduce the amount of marine plastic waste input.