Bather density as a predominant factor for health effects related to recreational bathing: results from the Greek bathers cohort study

Our aim was to examine the health effects on bathers from exposure to recreational seawater on three beaches with different microbiology quality and bather density through a cohort study. An initial questionnaire and a 10 day follow up were used. Univariate and backward logistic regression analyses were used to asses the risk of developing symptoms or diseases among the bathers. In total, 3805 bathers were included in the study and 149 samples were collected from the three beaches. Despite all the beaches being characterized of high quality the levels of bacterial indicators differed among them. Health effects among bathers were not associated with bacterial indicators. A statistically significant increased risk for symptoms related to respiratory illness, gastroenteritis, medical consultation and use of medication was observed among bathers at the higher bather density beaches. Beach bather numbers should always be taken into account when considering a risk assessment approach.     

Probabilistic risk assessment of common booster biocides in surface waters of the harbours of Gran Canaria (Spain)

The presence of booster biocides in the aquatic environment has been associated with a risk to non-target species due to their proven toxicity. The aim of the present study was to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of common booster biocides in different harbours of the island of Gran Canaria (Spain) and evaluate, by means of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the ecological risk posed by these compounds. With these objectives, a monitoring campaign was conducted between January 2008 and May 2009, collecting a total of 182 seawater samples. Four common booster biocides (TCMTB, diuron, Irgarol 1051 and dichlofluanid) were monitored. Diuron levels ranged between 2.3 and 203 ng/L and Irgarol 1051 between 2.4 and 146.5 ng/L. The ecological risk associated with these levels was always low, however, with probabilities of exceeding the 10th percentile of autotroph toxicity below 3.5%.     

Polychaete/amphipod ratio as an indicator of environmental impact related to offshore oil and gas production along the Norwegian continental shelf

Benthic faunal data is regularly collected worldwide to assess the ecological quality of marine environments. Recently, there has been renewed interest in developing biological indices able to identify environmental status and potential anthropogenic impacts. In this paper we evaluate the performance of a general polychaete/amphipod ratio along the Norwegian continental shelf as an environmental indicator for offshore oil and gas impacts. Two main trends are apparent: first, a contamination gradient is discernible from where production takes place compared to stations 10,000 m away. Second, the quality of the marine environment has improved over time. These results are consistent with monitoring reports employing a combination of uni- and multi-variate statistics. Thus, we consider this ratio as a relatively simple, useful and potentially cost-effective complement to other more demanding assessment techniques. Because of its strong theoretical basis, it may also be useful for detecting ecological change as a result of other activities.     

地震易损性分析方法研究综述

结构的地震易损性分析对于预测结构的抗震性能、进行结构的抗震设计、加固和维修决策具有重要的应用价值。本文将对近几十年来地震易损性评估方法领域内的重大发展做全面综述,并对易损性分析方法的类别和优缺点及其应用作了总结和讨论。     

福建城乡震灾快速评估系统设计

充分借鉴目前国内外工程地震和震害预测研究成果,结合福建实际震例,利用GIS技术、Web技术,设计开发区域范围震害预测及震灾快速评估系统,即福建城乡震灾快速评估系统.利用该系统平台对1992年以来发生在福建有较大影响的6次中强地震进行震灾快速评估,并将系统评估计算结果与实际震害调查评估结果进行对比分析,给出系统评估结果与...     

县(市)绝对地震应急能力评估方法的初步研究

县(市)地震应急能力的高低直接关系到中国整个地震应急工作的成效.从县(市)绝对地震应急能力的内涵分析出发,结合汶川地震灾区县(市)地震应急能力实地调研工作取得的认识,首先初步构建了县(市)绝对地震应急能力指标体系框架;然后以四川省县(市)为例,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性原则的基础上,构建了围绕着1个目标层,设定5...     

淮河上游暴雨事件评估模型

暴雨灾害是我国面临的主要气象灾害之一,对其进行评估具有重要的理论和现实意义。该文以气象降水数据为基础建立数据集,采用统计分析的方法建立暴雨事件评估模型,对淮河流域上游的暴雨事件进行评估。该模型选取了4项描述暴雨事件的指标:区域平均日降水量、区域最大日降水量、覆盖范围和持续时间,通过对淮河上游16个站1961—2007年逐日降水量资料的统计分析,按概率分布划分出这4项指标的各等级标准,从而建立暴雨事件等级标准评估矩阵,而需要评估的暴雨事件等级则通过计算该暴雨事件各指标所组成的向量与等级标准评估矩阵中各等级所组成的列向量之间的欧式距离来确定。通过对历史资料及2008年4月—2010年7月发生的暴雨事件实况资料进行评估,发现评估结果与其所造成的实际影响对应较好,说明该模型对暴雨事件等级的划分较为合理。     

徐州农业生产面临气象灾害风险的评估

根据徐州市历年来各种气象灾害对农业造成影响的资料, 应用信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型, 对徐州地区洪涝、干旱、风雹和霜冻等气象灾害进行风险评估, 并对客观风险评估值进行分析, 得到与历史上实际灾害发生的概率较吻合的结论, 使用这种方法为我们开展气象灾害风险评估提供了客观的数据。     

气象灾害应急管理能力评价

建立气象灾害应急能力评价指标体系对增强应对气象灾害管理能力和提高灾害的应急响应能力有重要的意义。从系统理论的角度出发,基于气象灾害应急管理的特征和结构的分析,运用层次分析法原理,构建了由气象灾害预警防御能力、政府组织能力、支撑保障能力3个1级指标和15个2级指标组成的气象灾害应急管理能力的评价指标体系,可为提高气象灾害应急管理能力和防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。