Estimating economic impacts in New Zealand: Technical issues

Abstract: This technical paper describes the techniques used to calculate future economic impacts, using two quite different situations: a technology park in a major urban area and the suspension of fees at a tertiary institution in a provincial town. A number of issues arose which required assumptions to be made. Notable among these were the lack of regionalized input–output tables and estimating the ‘leakage’ to economies outside the specified target area.     

屋面雨水回灌裂隙岩溶水工程风险评价

济南城市雨洪水回灌岩溶含水层是维护自然水循环,增加地下水补给量,维持济南泉群喷涌以及城市防洪的有效途径。但由于裂隙岩溶含水层具有渗透系数大、水流速度快,地下水一旦污染很难短时间恢复等特点,需要对回灌工程开展风险评价。本文以济南大学西校区的屋面雨水深井回灌裂隙岩溶水工程为例,利用澳大利亚MAR指南对工程进行风险评价。主要由初级风险评估、试运行调查、试运行风险评价及风险控制与管理4部分组成。初级风险评估结果显示屋面雨水回灌裂隙岩溶含水层工程的总体难度水平较低,项目可行。试运行调查期间监测的屋面雨水和回灌前后地下水水质可知屋面雨水经初期弃流、沉淀和过滤后,除浊度外基本达到地下水Ⅲ类标准,且处理后达标的雨水可迅速补充地下水。试运行风险评价结果显示屋面雨水中浊度经预处理后仍较高,使其成为该系统的最大风险项和关键控制点,故本项目的风险控制措施为改进预处理设施,降低雨水中的浊度。为保证工程能够高效持续运行,加强后期管理也尤为重要。      

天津市热储规划分区和地热井审批系统研发

为解决天津市地热工作中大量地热地质专业数据处理工作周期长与管理决策快速、科学要求相矛盾的问题,满足地热开发利用科学规划发展的要求,为资源的可持续开发利用提供操作简单、智能的工具和手段;在过去天津地热工作的基础上,提出了"两线一面"三维动态分区方法,利用MapGIS SDK及Visual Basic开发了地热工程热储规划分区及地热井审批查询系统。该系统的开发为规划的制定和落实提供了快速、全面、直观的规划分区,并且具有动态跟踪功能。在规划期间内,每年根据热储动态观测数据,利用该系统制作一套年度规划分区图,供管理部门掌握规划情况和动态审批。     

证据权模型与含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法相结合的资源潜力评价新方法

本文提出了计算含矿单元数概率分布函数的新方法,在此基础上,把证据权模型矿产资源评价方法得到的含矿网格单元作为蒙特卡洛模型中的统计对象,得到了与证据权模型找矿法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法矿产资源潜力评价方法。该方法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需估计矿床个数分布,减少了工作步骤和评价误差,可提高工作效率和自动化。对实际案例的应用表明该方法是可行的。     

GlobeLand30产品精度抽样测试与分析

GlobeLand30的发布为全球生态系统评价、环境规划、气候变化等研究提供了高分辨率的基础地表覆盖数据。以Landsat TM影像轨道号/行号分别为123/032所对应的区域为研究区,通过目视解译的方式在原始影像上选取地表覆盖类型作为地面参考数据,对2000和2010年两期的GlobeLand30的地表覆盖类型中的人造地表、农田、林地和水体进行了精度评定,并对比了两期产品数据的精度。此外,为了突出GlobeLand30产品的错分误差及其易于混淆的地物,以面的形式对产品的用户精度进行了计算和比较。研究表明,研究区内GlobeLand30数据具备很好的精度,与2010年数据相比,无论是总体精度,还是Kappa系数,2000年的产品其精度更高。本成果可以为研究区内GlobeLand30产品的使用提供参考。     

基于ANUSPLIN软件的逐日气象要素插值方法应用与评估

气象要素是资源、环境、灾害以及全球变化等领域研究的数据基础,格点化数据在未来研究应用中显得日益重要。本文基于中国境内667个基本和基准地面气象观测站点的基本气象资料,使用ANUSPLIN专用气候插值软件对1961-2006年逐日气温、降水进行插值,并利用未参与插值的全国1667个加密站点对插值结果的准确性进行检验,同时与反向距离权重法和普通克吕格法等插值方法的结果进行对比。结果表明,利用667个站点使用ANUSPLIN软件进行逐日平均气温插值有92.0%的误差在2.0℃以内,75.0%的误差在1.0℃以内,0.9%的误差在5.0℃以上,平均绝对误差为0.8℃;对逐日降水进行插值,75.0%的误差小于5.0mm,85%的误差小于10.0mm,平均绝对误差为6.4mm,误差大小与降水量呈现出正相关性,对局地强降水的插值效果不好,这可能与参与局部拟合插值的样本数太少有关;同时,夏季的温度插值误差小于冬季,而冬季的降水误差小于夏季。将ANUSPLIN的局部薄盘样条插值结果分别与反向距离权重法和普通克吕格法的插值结果进行对比,显示ANUSPLIN软件的插值误差最小。结果同样表明,适当增加站点数量和提高DEM精度可进一步提高ANUSPLIN软件的插值精度。     

Barriers to movement: Modelling energetic costs of avoiding marine wind farms amongst breeding seabirds

Proposals for wind farms in areas of known importance for breeding seabirds highlight the need to understand the impacts of these structures. Using an energetic modelling approach, we examine the effects of wind farms as barriers to movement on seabirds of differing morphology. Additional costs, expressed in relation to typical daily energetic expenditures, were highest per unit flight for seabirds with high wing loadings, such as cormorants. Taking species-specific differences into account, costs were relatively higher in terns, due to the high daily frequency of foraging flights. For all species, costs of extra flight to avoid a wind farm appear much less than those imposed by low food abundance or adverse weather, although such costs will be additive to these. We conclude that adopting a species-specific approach is essential when assessing the impacts of wind farms on breeding seabird populations, to fully anticipate the effects of avoidance flights.     

Semi‐active tuned mass damper building systems: Application

Seismic performance attributes of multi‐story passive and semi‐active tuned mass damper (PTMD and SATMD) building systems are investigated for 12‐story moment resisting frames modeled as ‘10+2’ stories and ‘8+4’ stories. Segmented upper portion of the stories are isolated as a tuned mass, and a passive viscous damper or semi‐active resetable device is adopted as energy dissipation strategy. The semi‐active approach uses feedback control to alter or manipulate the reaction forces, effectively re‐tuning the system depending on the structural response. Optimum tuned mass damper control parameters and appropriate matching SATMD configurations are adopted from a companion study on a simplified two‐degree‐of‐freedom system. Statistical performance metrics are presented for 30 probabilistically scaled earthquake records from the SAC project. Time history analyses are used to compute response reduction factors across a wide range of seismic hazard intensities. Results show that large SATMD systems can effectively manage seismic response for multi‐degree‐of freedom systems across a broad range of ground motions in comparison to passive solutions. Specific results include the identification of differences in the mechanisms by which SATMD and PTMD systems remove energy, based on the differences in the devices used. Additionally, variability is seen to be tighter for the SATMD systems across the suites of ground motions used, indicating a more robust control system. While the overall efficacy of the concept is shown the major issues, such as isolation layer displacement, are discussed in detail not available in simplified spectral analyses, providing further insight into the dynamics of these issues for these systems. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

灾害风险科学与灾害易损性研究实践

在收集、整理和编译国外有关论坛和研讨会资料的基础上,给出了目前国际风险科学研究的动态,综述了地震灾害风险评估和减轻地震易损性方面的研究进展,介绍了目前有关国家的地震灾害风险减轻的理论研究和减灾计划与行动。