自然类比法对张北──尚义6.2级地震序列类型和震后趋势早期判断实例

用自然类比法对1998年1月10日张北─尚义6．2级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行了早期判断,找出了与之最相似的四个序列是1976年9月23日巴音木仁6．2级地震（S17）、1996年5月3日包头6．4级地震（558）、1985年4月18日禄劝6．3级地震（S34）和1984年5月21日南黄海6．0级地震（S33）。由此判断张北地震序列为主震余震型,推算最大余震震级应在4．3～4．7之间,一个月内4级以上余震数可能在11～22次之间。实测结果张北地震最大余震震级4．6,一个月内4级以上余震数18次,均在预测范围内。     

VSP上下行反射波联合成像方法研究

VSP资料上下行波场发育丰富.本文在分析VSP直达波、上行反射波、下行反射波传播路径及其照明范围的基础上,指出了常规VSP波动方程偏移方法缺陷,进而通过修改波场延拓方式,提出了上下行反射波联合成像方法,并在高频近似下分析了该方法的成像原理.该方法不需要进行VSP上下行反射波场分离,能够同时对VSP资料中的一次反射波、自由表面多次波、层间多次波进行成像,比常规成像剖面具有更宽的成像范围和更好的成像效果.该方法能够对下行一次反射波进行成像,从而可以实现常规偏移方法难以处理的高陡倾角构造成像.模拟资料和实际资料处理证明了本文方法的正确性.     

Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N₂] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes) above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs). The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help to create the positive ionospheric disturbances both at middle and low latitudes. Minor contributions arise from the general density enhancement of all constituents during geomagnetic storms, which favours ion production processes above ion losses at fixed height under day-light conditions.     

Assessment of regional air pollution distribution by point cumulative semivariogram method at Erzurum urban center, TURKEY

In the assessment of air quality, regional distribution and dispersion with distance are important, together with the variations of pollutants in time. On this occasion, the point cumulative semi-variogram (PCSV) method is used in order to find simply regional distribution of pollutants of Erzurum urban centre. This method is based simply on the summation of square differences in air pollutant concentrations between different sites. Monthly regional variation maps of Erzurum are constructed by finding radius of influence (for SO₂, from 1000 m to 3500 m and, for TSP, 1000–2000 m) and PCSV scattering diagram data at different levels by using monthly average sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and total suspended particulate (TSP) matter concentrations in 2001–2002 winter season. Consequently, the air pollution distribution of Erzurum is assessed.     

外部利润、产权界定与土地资源优化配置——成都市农村土地股份合作制改革的制度经济学解析

以"外部利润——产权界定——资源优化配置"为研究主线,对成都市农村土地股份合作制改革进行了制度经济学解析。研究发现,制度创新空间的形成、土地的增值收益、土地规模利用效应和土地集约利用效应构成了成都市农村土地股份合作制改革的外部利润。成都市农村土地股份合作制改革,一方面可以提高土地规模和集约利用效应,促进土地资源优化配置;另一方面可以明晰集体土地产权主体,健全基层组织治理机制。要采取诸如放松法律限制、加强理论研究、规范机制建设等措施,从而推动土地股份合作制的生成和发展。     

用CAPPI和PPI资料测定区域降水量精度比较

应用上海中心气象台７１４数字化天气雷达的体积扫描资料所得的不同高度上的ＣＡＰＰＩ资料和低仰角时ＰＰＩ资料。估算区域降水量并得到降水量分布形势。然后采用平均校准法进行了校准，最后又与用雨量计网测量的区域降水量及其分布形势作了比较，得到一些有意义的结果。     

基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

HITRAN数据库对卫星1.6 μm通道CO2辐射传输特性计算的影响

卫星遥感器中的CO21.6μm弱吸收带通道测量信号可以反映CO2的近地层浓度分布,是温室气体卫星反演的重要通道之一。HITRAN数据库是建立卫星遥感CO2浓度算法依赖的重要分子光谱参数数据库,目前已经更新到了2012版,不同版本中大气分子谱线参数存在差异。本文利用逐线积分模式LBLRTM,研究了最近3个版本HITRAN数据库(04、08、12版)在CO2的弱吸收带通道上大气光学厚度、透过率的差异,发现04版计算的气体光学厚度普遍偏高,可对CO2造成约38 ppm的低估;08版本得到的气体光学厚度与12版本接近,反演相差2 ppm以内。在此基础上,分析了不同HITRAN数据库对整层CO2变化和近地层CO2变化的敏感性,结果表明:04版对整层和近地面大气的变化敏感性最强,并且放大了近地层信号;08版与12版对整层或近地层CO2的敏感度接近,两者经过卷积后得到的信号无差异。     

The Spatial Pattern of Complementary and Alternative Medical Offices Across Ontario and Within Intermediate-Sized Metropolitan Areas

Complementary and alternative medical approaches such as chiropractic, massage, acupuncture, holistic, and naturopathic therapies act as complements to, and in some cases replacements for, conventional medical techniques. The growing acceptance of the benefits of "traditional" medicine in the Canadian province of Ontario continues to provide complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) practitioners with business opportunities, but to date little attention has been directed toward the spatial patterns exhibited by these operations. A province-wide database of 4,599 records, containing addresses and selected characteristics (e.g., sales, employment) of CAM offices, is utilized to describe the geographic pattern across Ontario. An additional database allows for the assessment of four intermediate-sized census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Ontario (Kingston, Guelph, Thunder Bay, and Greater Sudbury), and it is determined (using a general nearest neighbor analysis and a nearest neighbor hierarchical clustering procedure) that CAM offices are significantly clustered in specific portions of each CMA. The results from a survey administered to CAM practitioners suggests that the benefits of urbanization economies are biasing location decisions within these CMAs, and that localization economies advantages appear to be influencing complementary and alternative healthcare specialists to share offices.     

Invariant manifolds, phase correlations of chaotic orbits and the spiral structure of galaxies

In the presence of a strong   m = 2  component in a rotating galaxy, the phase-space structure near corotation is shaped to a large extent by the invariant manifolds of the short-period family of unstable periodic orbits terminating at L ₁ or L ₂. The main effect of these manifolds is to create robust phase correlations among a number of chaotic orbits large enough to support a spiral density wave outside corotation. The phenomenon is described theoretically by soliton-like solutions of a Sine–Gordon equation. Numerical examples are given in an N -body simulation of a barred spiral galaxy. In these examples, we demonstrate how the projection of unstable manifolds in configuration space reproduces essentially the entire observed bar–spiral pattern.