珠江口西部海域表层沉积物重金属元素多尺度空间变化特征

笔者应用因子克里格分析方法,研究了珠江口西部海域388个表层沉积物中7种重金属元素Cd, Ni,Cu,Zn,Pb,Cr和As的空间结构特征,识别并分离了重金属元素不同尺度的空间主成分及其分布特征,探讨了不同空间尺度重金属的物源及控制因素。结果显示,研究区7种重金属元素在空间上存在块金尺度、局部尺度(变程为60 km的球状结构)和区域尺度(变程为160 km的球状结构)3种尺度的空间变化。以迭代算法模拟了研究区重金属元素线性协同区域化模型。根据不同尺度上区域化因子的主成分得分分布特征可知:局部尺度上,F₁因子(Zn,Cr,Ni,Cu)和F₂因子(As)的高值区表现为"牛眼"状局部特征,并分布在陆地沿海的河口或者港湾区,指示了可能受人为污染成分影响的重金属区域。其中,雷州半岛东部沿海是最可能的重金属污染区,其空间分布主要受控于局部的地形、海流等因素。F₂因子不同于F₁的空间分布,主要在于As不同于Zn,Cr,Ni,Cu等的地球化学行为。区域尺度上,F₁(Zn,Cr,Ni)和F₂(As)因子主要反映了不同陆源母岩物质的影响。Zn,Cr,Ni等主要源于华南大陆陆源母岩物质,而As主要受到海南岛陆源母岩物质的控制。F₁和F₂因子得分高值区整体上表现为NNE向自陆地向较深海域延伸的"片状"分布特征,推测其主要受到海平面变化及NNE向区域性海洋环流的控制。     

Optimal design of rain gauge network in the Middle Yarra River catchment,Australia

Rainfall data are a fundamental input for effective planning, designing and operating of water resources projects. A well‐designed rain gauge network is capable of providing accurate estimates of necessary areal average and/or point rainfall estimates at any desired ungauged location in a catchment. Increasing network density with additional rain gauge stations has been the main underlying criterion in the past to reduce error and uncertainty in rainfall estimates. However, installing and operation of additional stations in a network involves large cost and manpower. Hence, the objective of this study is to design an optimal rain gauge network in the Middle Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia. The optimal positioning of additional stations as well as optimally relocating of existing redundant stations using the kriging‐based geostatistical approach was undertaken in this study. Reduction of kriging error was considered as an indicator for optimal spatial positioning of the stations. Daily rainfall records of 1997 (an El Niño year) and 2010 (a La Niña year) were used for the analysis. Ordinary kriging was applied for rainfall data interpolation to estimate the kriging error for the network. The results indicate that significant reduction in the kriging error can be achieved by the optimal spatial positioning of the additional as well as redundant stations. Thus, the obtained optimal rain gauge network is expected to be appropriate for providing high quality rainfall estimates over the catchment. The concept proposed in this study for optimal rain gauge network design through combined use of additional and redundant stations together is equally applicable to any other catchment. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

动态构建福建紫金山铜金矿矿体模型

为了将不同边界品位情况下矿体的形态及由边界品位变化引起的矿体形态变化程度在计算机中动态、实时地展现,同时也为了解矿体在不同工业指标条件下的空间形态,进行了矿体动态建模方法研究。采用了一种新的、基于矿体属性模型向其几何结构模型转化的方法--克里格块体法。通过该方法,基于指示克里格估值技术,使用块体模型＋实体模型的三维数据模型结构,动态地构建出了福建上杭紫金山铜金矿矿体在不同边界品位条件下、信息充分、完备且具高可信度的矿体模型,达到了使建模结果能够真正服务于矿山勘探和生产实践的效果。该方法具有一定的可扩展和易推广的性质,能够完成大多数类似矿山及类似地质体的动态建模过程。     

Medical Geography: A Promising Field of Application for Geostatistics

The analysis of health data and putative covariates, such as environmental, socio-economic, behavioral or demographic factors, is a promising application for geostatistics. However, it presents several methodological challenges that arise from the fact that data is typically aggregated over irregular spatial supports and consists of a numerator and a denominator (e.g., population size). This paper presents an overview of recent developments in the field of health geostatistics, with an emphasis on three main steps in the analysis of areal health data: (1) estimation of the underlying disease risk, (2) detection of areas with significantly higher risk, and (3) analysis of relationships with putative risk factors. The analysis is illustrated by using age-adjusted cervix cancer mortality rates recorded from 1970 to 1994 of 118 counties in four Western USA states. Poisson kriging allows the filtering of noisy mortality rates computed from small population sizes, enhancing the correlation with two putative explanatory variables: percentage of habitants living below the federally defined poverty line, and percentage of Hispanic females. Area-to-point kriging formulation creates continuous maps of mortality risk, reducing the visual bias associated with the interpretation of choropleth maps. Stochastic simulation is used to generate realizations of cancer mortality maps, which allows one to quantify how uncertainty of the spatial distribution of health outcomes translates into uncertainty of the location of clusters of high values or the correlation with covariates. Finally, geographically-weighted regression highlights the non-stationarity in the explanatory power of covariates; the higher mortality values along the coast are better explained by the two covariates than the lower risk recorded in Utah.     

Downscaling in remote sensing

Downscaling has an important role to play in remote sensing. It allows prediction at a finer spatial resolution than that of the input imagery, based on either (i) assumptions or prior knowledge about the character of the target spatial variation coupled with spatial optimisation, (ii) spatial prediction through interpolation or (iii) direct information on the relation between spatial resolutions in the form of a regression model. Two classes of goal can be distinguished based on whether continua are predicted (through downscaling or area-to-point prediction) or categories are predicted (super-resolution mapping), in both cases from continuous input data. This paper reviews a range of techniques for both goals, focusing on area-to-point kriging and downscaling cokriging in the former case and spatial optimisation techniques and multiple point geostatistics in the latter case. Several issues are discussed including the information content of training data, including training images, the need for model-based uncertainty information to accompany downscaling predictions, and the fundamental limits on the representativeness of downscaling predictions. The paper ends with a look towards the grand challenge of downscaling in the context of time-series image stacks. The challenge here is to use all the available information to produce a downscaled series of images that is coherent between images and, thus, which helps to distinguish real changes (signal) from noise.     

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space–time joinpoint regression

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.     

各向异性矿化特征的分析与模拟 及其在储量估算中的应用

矿化作用往往是地质事件及局部过程共同作用的结果,导致矿体空间形态复杂多变、矿石品位呈各向异性、尺度不一的非线性空间变异模式.传统方法无论是在矿石量的计算方面还是在矿块内平均品位的确定上都存在多种误差,并且无法实现信息的动态管理及直观表达.文章以安庆铜矿中心矿区为例,采用对数块kriging与三维地学模拟技术相结合的方法...     

不同采样点数量下土壤有机质含量空间预测方法对比

运用普通克里格、泛克里格、协同克里格和回归克里格4种方法,结合由DEM获取的高程因子以及土壤全氮和阳离子交换量（CEC）,预测了黑龙江省海伦市耕地有机质含量的空间分布。不同样点数量下海伦市土壤有机质含量的空间变异结构分析表明,样点数量多并不一定能够识别土壤有机质含量的结构性连续组分,最优化的布置采样点位置可能比单纯增加...     

空间分析中几种插值方法的比较研究

针对常用的空间插值方法在精度分析方面比较的不足,从地质统计学、数学函数和几何方法方面分别选取普通克里金插值法、三次样条函数法和距离权重倒数法进行插值精度的比较与分析。文章分析了各个方法的优缺点和局限性,选取疏密差异较大的均匀和不均匀离散点数据进行实验,利用三次趋势面模型和MATLAB,ArcGIS,GS+Version...     

Rainfall network design using kriging and entropy

The spatial distribution of rainfall is related to meteorological and topographical factors. An understanding of the weather and topography is required to select the locations of the rain gauge stations in the catchment to obtain the optimum information. In theory, a well‐designed rainfall network can accurately represent and provide the needed information of rainfall in the catchment. However, the available rainfall data are rarely adequate in the mountainous area of Taiwan. In order to provide enough rainfall data to assure the success of water projects, the rainfall network based on the existing rain gauge stations has to be redesigned. A method composed of kriging and entropy that can determine the optimum number and spatial distribution of rain gauge stations in catchments is proposed. Kriging as an interpolator, which performs linear averaging to reconstruct the rainfall over the catchment on the basis of the observed rainfall, is used to compute the spatial variations of rainfall. Thus, the rainfall data at the locations of the candidate rain gauge stations can be reconstructed. The information entropy reveals the rainfall information of the each rain gauge station in the catchment. By calculating the joint entropy and the transmitted information, the candidate rain gauge stations are prioritized. In addition, the saturation of rainfall information can be used to add or remove the rain gauge stations. Thus, the optimum spatial distribution and the minimum number of rain gauge stations in the network can be determined. The catchment of the Shimen Reservoir in Taiwan is used to illustrate the method. The result shows that only seven rain gauge stations are needed to provide the necessary information. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.