Modelling the long-term distribution of significant wave height with the Beta and Gamma models

The paper suggests modelling the long-term distribution of significant wave height with the Gamma, Beta of the first and second kind models. The three models are interrelated, flexible and cover the three different tail types of Extreme Value Theory. They can be used simultaneously as a means of assessing the uncertainty effects that result from choosing equally plausible models with different tail types. This procedure is intended for those applications that require the long-term distribution of significant wave height as input rather than the prediction of extreme values. The models are fitted to some significant wave data as an illustration. Details about maximum likelihood estimation are given in A.     

莱州湾南岸第三陆相层年龄的铀系等时线法(TSD)测定

于莱州湾南岸ZK32-1钻孔第三陆相层上下边界处选取自生钙质结核,采用样品全溶铀系等时线法(TSD法)测定钙质结核的年龄。测试结果表明,所有等时线上的数据都有很好的线性关系,表明所获得的年龄数据是合理的。通过对样品代表性的讨论,说明所选取的钙质结核的年龄确可代表其所在地层的年龄,从而得出莱州湾南岸第三陆相层的沉积起止时间为72.16ka B.P.±7.41ka B.P.到45.34ka B.P.±5.35ka B.P.的结论。本研究首次获得莱州湾南岸地层的铀系TSD年龄,为全面认识该地区晚更新世地层年代学提供了一个新视角。     

Validation of ship manoeuvring models using metamodels

This paper describes how simplified auxiliary models—metamodels—can be used to create benchmarks for validating ship manoeuvring simulation models. A metamodel represents ship performance for a limited range of parameters, such as rudder angles and surge velocity. In contrast to traditional system identification methods, metamodels are identified from multiple trial recordings, each containing data on the ship’s inherent dynamics (similar for all trials) and random disturbances such as environmental effects and slightly different loading conditions. Thus, metamodels can be used to obtain these essential data, where simple averaging is not possible. In addition, metamodels are used to represent a ship’s behaviour and not to obtain physical insights into ship dynamics. The experimental trials used for the identification of metamodels can be found in in-service recorded data. After the metamodel is identified, it is used to simulate trials without substantial deviations from the ship state parameters used for the identification. Subsequently, the predictions of the metamodels are compared with the predictions of a tested manoeuvring simulation model. We present two case studies to demonstrate the application of metamodels for moderate turning motions of two ships.     

Prediction of diagenetic facies using well logs – A case study from the upper Triassic Yanchang Formation,Ordos Basin,China

Understanding diagenetic heterogeneity in tight sandstone reservoirs is vital for hydrocarbon exploration. As a typical tight sandstone reservoir, the seventh unit of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin (Chang 7 unit), central China, is an important oil-producing interval. Results of helium porosity and permeability and petrographic assessment from thin sections, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and cathodoluminescence analysis demonstrate that the sandstones have encountered various diagenetic processes encompassing mechanical and chemical compaction, cementation by carbonate, quartz, clay minerals, and dissolution of feldspar and lithic fragments. The sandstones comprise silt-to medium-grained lithic arkoses to feldspathic litharenites and litharenites, which have low porosity (0.5%–13.6%, with an average of 6.8%) and low permeability (0.009 × 10⁻³ μm² to 1.818 × 10⁻³ μm², with an average of 0.106 × 10⁻³ μm²).This study suggests that diagenetic facies identified from petrographic observations can be up-scaled by correlation with wire-line log responses, which can facilitate prediction of reservoir quality at a field-scale. Four diagenetic facies are determined based on petrographic features including intensity of compaction, cement types and amounts, and degree of dissolution. Unstable and labile components of sandstones can be identified by low bulk density and low gamma ray log values, and those sandstones show the highest reservoir quality. Tightly compacted sandstones/siltstones, which tend to have high gamma ray readings and relatively high bulk density values, show the poorest reservoir quality. A model based on principal component analysis (PCA) is built and show better prediction of diagenetic facies than biplots of well logs. The model is validated by blind testing log-predicted diagenetic facies against petrographic features from core samples of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, which indicates it is a helpful predictive model.     

Complementing coal seam gas facies modelling workflows with decompaction based processes

Differential compaction plays a key role in influencing the palaeogeographic organisation of many depositional systems. In the Jurassic Walloon Subgroup, Surat Basin, Eastern Australia, the process of compensational stacking contributes significantly to the complex coal layer architecture and is documented in mine exposure, borehole and seismic datasets. Despite this understanding, current best-practices do not formally consider the mechanics of compensational stacking when populating palaeogeography facies in coal seam gas (CSG) reservoir models. To address this limitation, a hybrid modelling workflow was developed in which numerical rules representing the process of differential compaction are used explicitly to condition an iterative workflow containing traditional geostatistical facies modelling algorithms. The workflow is facilitated by a newly developed open source plugin which allows grid decompaction in Schlumberger PETREL™ 2015. Application of the workflow was tested in a CSG production area containing closely spaced wellbores and a 3D seismic survey. In this area, facies models were constructed using both traditional geostatistical approaches and the newly developed hybrid methodology. Comparison of these models suggests that facies models constructed via unconstrained geostatistical approaches often result in unrepresentative realisations, inconsistent with coal seam architectures as observed in seismic and outcrop. The hybrid geostatistical-forward modelling approach developed during this study was better able to reproduce complex alluvial stacking patterns, particularly with respect to coal seam amalgamation, bifurcation and washout.     

Explicit stress–strain equations for modeling frictional materials

In this paper, a comprehensive study on simulating the shearing behavior of frictional materials is performed. A set of two explicit equations, describing the relationship among the shear stress ratio and the distortional strain and the volumetric strain, are formulated independently. The equations contain three stress parameters and three strain parameters and another parameter representing the nonuniformity of stress and strain during softening. All the parameters have clear physical significance and can be determined experimentally. It is demonstrated that the proposed equations have the capacity of simulating the complicated shearing behavior of many types of frictional materials including geomaterials. The proposed equations are used to simulate the stress–strain behavior for 27 frictional materials with 98 tests. These materials include soft and stiff clays in both reconstituted and structured states, silicon sands and calcareous sands, silts, compacted fill materials, volcanic soils, decomposed granite soils, cemented soils (both artificially and naturally cemented), partially saturated soils, ballast, rocks, reinforced soils, tire chips, sugar, wheat, and rapeseed. It has been demonstrated that the proposed explicit constitutive equations have the capacity to capture accurately the shearing behavior of frictional materials both qualitatively and quantitatively. A study on model parameters has been performed.     

珠江口盆地惠州凹陷恩平组源岩特征及勘探潜力

惠州凹陷是珠江口盆地已经证实的富生烃凹陷,存在文昌组和恩平组两套有效烃源岩,一直以来都是以文昌组中深湖相烃源岩为勘探重点。随着勘探的深入,惠州地区以恩平组为代表的浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩的贡献越来越明显,惠州凹陷东部新区基本都为浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩供烃,周边井钻探证实该套烃源岩已经成藏。通过构造-结构剖析、物源分析、地震相调研对比、沉积体系细致研究以及对浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩的特征分析,揭示了惠东地区浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩优势发育机理。经过计算,惠东新区浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩资源量为8.6亿t,占到惠东地区总资源量的3/4,具有较大的勘探潜力。在总结惠东新区浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩特征的基础上优选出惠东新区浅湖-沼泽相烃源岩最有利勘探区带。本次研究摆脱了惠州凹陷单一烃源岩勘探束缚,推动了新区勘探进程。     

长江口表层沉积物矿物磁性分区特征及其沉积环境指示意义

本研究旨在揭示现代长江口不同沉积环境铁磁性矿物的分布差异,寻找有效识别河口-陆架沉积环境的磁学指标,以便更好地将环境磁学应用于河口古环境研究。在长江口及邻近陆架的6个沉积环境:汊道、拦门沙、三角洲前缘斜坡、前三角洲、前三角洲-陆架过渡区和残留砂区,采集表层沉积物样品,进行粒度和磁性测量。结果显示,χ和SIRM在汊道和拦门沙呈现显著高值,HIRM、χfd%、χARM、χARM/χ和χARM/SIRM在前三角洲和前缘斜坡呈现显著高值,反映了陆源物质输运距离和河口沉积动力对磁性矿物分布的控制作用。因此,参数组合HIRM、χARM、χARM/χ和χARM/SIRM可用于识别全新世地层前缘斜坡和前三角洲-陆架;参数组合χ、SIRM和S-20mT可尝试用于识别汊道和拦门沙环境。     

基于相控地质统计学反演的薄储层岩性、物性预测

针对河流相储层厚度薄、纵向叠置严重、横向变化快、常规确定性反演方法受地震频带限制难以准确刻画的特点,尝试应用基于MCMC算法的地质统计学方法进行反演,以提高分辨率和储层预测精度,并全程应用成岩储集相控制建模,以便从储层地质学的角度加强模型约束,促进概念模型向定量模型的转化,建立合理的反映地下实际情况的油藏物性模型。具体实现方法是,首先利用对岩性识别敏感的测井曲线重构拟声阻抗曲线,再以声阻抗为中间变量,对岩性、物性参数空间变异性进行双重变差函数分析,最后基于MCMC算法实现了成岩储集相控制的地质统计学反演。得到的三维岩性、阻抗及孔隙度模型,其纵向分辨率为1 ms,既可以很好地展现不同期次砂体的叠置关系、隔夹层的分布以及沉积旋回纵、横向演变规律,又可以实现物性变异方向沿河道砂体弯曲方向变化的趋势,同时可对地震资料的多解性进行有效限制。     

海洋沉积地质过程模拟:性质与问题及前景

探讨了海洋沉积地质数值模拟的功能问题.地球科学研究以正演方法(以数值模拟为代表)和反演方法(以地层记录分析为代表)的结合为特征.数值模拟作为一种重要的研究工具,具有获得过程和机理分析结果、形成工作假说、指导现场观测和采样的作用.与此同时,在正反演交融中模型本身也得到了提高和完善.在海洋沉积地质领域,数值模拟在沉积物输运...