2018年夏季我国极端降水及滑坡泥石流灾害预测

基于动力降尺度预测系统,中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心对2018年夏季我国极端降水日数及滑坡泥石流灾害的发生风险进行了超前4个月的实时预测试验。与实测结果相比,该系统对2018年夏季我国极端降水日数空间分布的预测与实况基本相符,但大部分地区存在明显低估;滑坡泥石流的预测结果与目前统计的由于降水引发的滑坡泥石流灾害事件的分布基本吻合。此次预测试验表明,中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心发展的动力降尺度预测系统对我国夏季极端降水和滑坡泥石流灾害具有一定的预测能力,具有实时预测价值。     

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region,China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations.The re-sults show that at most stations,there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights,as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days,cold nights,frost days,and annual diurnal temperature range(DTR).Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/10yr,3.95 d/10yr,-1.88 d/10yr,-4.27 d/10yr,-4.21 d/10yr and-0.20℃/10yr,respectively.Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results,but there is a large seasonal difference.A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales,which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem-perature.For precipitation indices,the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency,i.e.extreme precipitation days(RD95p),intensity(RINTEN),proportion(RPROP) and maximum consecutive wet days(CWD),but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD),which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation(PRCPTOT).Seasonally,PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer,but generally not significant.In summary,this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region,which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.     

时间序列的趋势转折点提取算法及应用研究

针对时间序列趋势转折点的提取,提出一种基于矢量转角和极值点相结合的改进算法,并应用到地震观测资料的分析中。结合地震对应规则,对山西断陷带北部小磨流动水准XM₁-XM₂测线的地震预测效能进行评估。结果表明：1）该算法可用于时间序列趋势转折点的自动提取,提高了人工判别的工作效率,实现了转折点的定量化识别;2）从数据统计的角度考虑,该测线与200 km范围内M4.5以上地震有较好的对应关系,预测效能评估结果R=0.63（R₀=0.43）;3）2000年以后该测线的地震虚报率较高,分析认为可能与远场强震引起的应力变化有关。     

Probabilistic Methods for Reliability Assessment of Floating Structures Based on Extreme Wave Simulation

With the increasing application of floating platforms in deep waters and harsh environments,a proper assessment of the reliability of floating structures is important to ensure that these structures can operate safely during their design lives.This study outlines a practical methodology for reliability analysis of a semi-submersible platform based estimating the probability distribution of the extreme response in rough sea conditions(survival conditions).The Constrained NewWave(CNW)theory combined with Monte Carlo simulations was first applied to simulate the random wave surface elevation process in the time domain.A Gumbel distribution was the best fitting to describe the dynamically sensitive extreme response statistics under extreme waves(drift and mooring tension).The derived probability distribution of the extreme response was subsequently used in estimation of the associated limit state func-tion,and a reliability analysis of the floating structure was conducted using the Monte Carlo method.A semi-submersible platform in a water depth of 1500 m subjected to extreme wave loads was used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.The probability of failure of the semi-submersible when considering mooring lines tension is greater than considering drift.     

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我国不同历时年最大降雨量的随机性及空间差异性

极端降水极易引发山洪和城市内涝等水灾害,给生态环境安全、社会经济发展、人民生命财产安全等带来极大损失,认识其（尤其是短历时）空间分布差异对洪涝灾害防治等具有重要意义。本文利用60 min、6 h和24 h共3种历时的年最大降雨量的统计特征参数,生成服从皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布的长序列样本,并选用信息熵指标研究其随机性及空间分布差异。结果显示：各历时年最大降雨量的随机性均呈现由东南向西北逐渐减小的空间格局,但不同历时降水随机性的空间分布存在差异,主要体现在青藏高原东部、海河流域和淮河流域3个区域。此外,所求年最大降雨量信息熵值主要考虑了其取值的相对离散情况,故该信息熵值与整个序列绝对离散程度（即标准差）的关系不明显,而主要由序列均值处峰值高低的峰度系数决定,二者呈现明显的负相关关系;且由于峰度系数和变差系数的良好相关性也导致了变差系数与信息熵值之间呈现出良好关系。季风、台风、局地天气系统和人类活动等因素综合影响,决定了不同历时极端降水的空间分布格局及其差异。信息熵指标可以很好地反映中国各历时年最大降雨量随机性的空间分布格局,因而结果可为洪涝灾害防治、农业规划布局、生态环境规划保护等提供科学依据。     

青藏高原臭氧谷极端事件的定义及其特征

利用1979—2016年ERA-interim逐日再分析资料,定义了青藏高原臭氧谷(Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau,OVTP)极端和普通强(弱)事件,并讨论了其特征。结果表明:1) OVTP极端强事件在夏秋季节多发,10月最多,频率达2. 0%; OVTP普通强事件在春夏季多发,7月最多,频率达1. 7%。OVTP极端弱事件在秋冬季多发,12月最多,频率达3. 8%; OVTP普通弱事件在冬季多发,1月最多,频率达2. 0%。2) OVTP极端强事件出现频率显著增加(0. 004%·a~(-1)),极端弱事件出现频率显著减少(-0. 015%·a~(-1))。OVTP普通事件的变化均不显著。3) OVTP极端强事件的面积和强度均在秋季最大,10月达到最大值,面积为4. 3×10~5km~2,强度为1. 5×10~5t; OVTP普通强事件的面积和强度均在夏季最大,7月达到峰值,面积为1. 7×105km~2,强度为4. 1×10~3t。OVTP极端弱事件的面积和强度在春夏较小,4月达到最小值,面积为3. 2×10~4km~2,强度为1. 1×10~2t; OVTP普通弱事件的面积和强度在春夏秋均较小,4月和10月达到极小值,4月面积为2. 5×10~4km~2,强度为68 t,10月面积为2. 2×10~4km~2,强度为97t。4) OVTP极端和普通强事件的面积(强度)均呈显著增大(增强)趋势,极端强事件的面积达2. 5×10~2km~2·a~(-1),强度达2. 5×10~2t·a~(-1),普通强事件的面积达4. 5×10~2km~2·a~(-1),强度达4. 5 t·a~(-1)。极端和普通弱事件的面积(强度)均呈显著减小(减弱)趋势,极端弱事件的面积达-1. 7×10~4km~2·a~(-1),强度达-7. 0×10~3t·a~(-1),普通弱事件的面积达-2. 3×10~3km~2·a~(-1),强度达-2. 7×102t·a~(-1)。     

1993年世界气候概况

１９９３年,是世界异常气候事件突出的年份。美国东部春季的“世纪暴风雪”,中西部夏季的特大洪水,日本和中国黄淮,江淮地区罕见的“低温”凉夏,巴西东北,澳大利亚东部严重的干旱,大西洋加勒比海地区猛烈的飓风以及西欧秋冬的洪水……,种种异常天气气候事件,多与热带太平洋１９９２年夏曾宣告结束,而１９９３年春再度发生,并持续至今的厄尔尼诺现象,以及中高纬地区年内多数朋份大气环流的经向型紧密相关。     

青藏高原微地形对极值风速的影响及其参数化模拟方法研究

利用青藏高原铁路沿线1961-2006年7个气象台站和2003年9月-2004年9月7个野外观测点风资料, 结合地理信息系统分析了青藏高原腹地微地形对极值风速的影响. 通过地形因子的参数化处理, 建立了极值风速随海拔和地形参数变化的拟合模型以精确推算复杂地形的极值风速, 并利用临时观测点风资料对其进行了检验. 结果表明, 利用地理信息系统和地形参数化处理方法研究青藏高原微地形对极值风速的影响具有可操作性.     

The great Atacama flood of 2001 and its implications for Andean hydrology

In February 2001, widespread flooding occurred throughout the Atacama Desert of northern Chile and southern Peru. It was particularly severe in the Río Loa basin, where roads and bridges were disrupted and the town of Calama inundated. The instantaneous peak flow in the Río Salado, a tributary of the Río Loa, reached 310 m³ s^?1, an order of magnitude higher than any previously recorded event. The flood is estimated to have a return period of 100–200 years and is shown to have been caused by intense, long‐duration rainfall in the western Cordillera associated with La Niña. The surface water response is typical of arid areas and highly dependent on antecedent conditions, but is quite different in perennial and ephemeral catchments. Ephemeral flood flows suffer high transmission losses, recharging phreatic aquifers. Perennial rivers have lower runoff coefficients, but baseflow levels remained high after the event for several months due to bank storage rebound and interflow. Extremely high energies of ～3000 W m^?2 were generated by the floods in the Cordillera, becoming less in the Precordillera and downstream. Erosion and sediment transport were consequently highest in the upper and middle reaches of the rivers, with mixed erosion‐deposition in the lowest reach. The new insights gained from the interpretation and quantification of this event have important implications for palaeoenvironmental analysis, hazard management, water resource evaluation and the palaeohydrological evolution of the Andes. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.