2017年洞庭湖特大洪水分析

2017年6月22日至7月1日,湖南省大部分地区发生了持续性强降雨过程。暴雨在湘水、资江、沅水及洞庭湖区来回摆动,三水(湘、资、沅)及湖区周边洪水接近于同时入湖,造成了洞庭湖历史罕见的特大洪水,入湖洪峰出湖洪峰均为1954年以来最大。     

Invariant manifolds, phase correlations of chaotic orbits and the spiral structure of galaxies

In the presence of a strong   m = 2  component in a rotating galaxy, the phase-space structure near corotation is shaped to a large extent by the invariant manifolds of the short-period family of unstable periodic orbits terminating at L ₁ or L ₂. The main effect of these manifolds is to create robust phase correlations among a number of chaotic orbits large enough to support a spiral density wave outside corotation. The phenomenon is described theoretically by soliton-like solutions of a Sine–Gordon equation. Numerical examples are given in an N -body simulation of a barred spiral galaxy. In these examples, we demonstrate how the projection of unstable manifolds in configuration space reproduces essentially the entire observed bar–spiral pattern.     

Differential uplift between Beihuaiyang and Dabie orogenic belt

Isotope dating, hornblende geobarometer, fission-track analysis and fluid inclusion homogeneous temperature analysis have been applied to Caledonian, Variscan and Yenshan plutons in Bei Huaiyang (BHY) and Dabie orogenic belt (DOB), and the emplaced depths and ages of these plutons have been obtained in order to obtain differential uplift time and uplift heights between BHY and DOB since late Paleozoic era. BHY had experienced three stages of uplift (C1-C2, T-J2, J3-K1) and its total uplift height is about 10 km, but, DOB had only experienced two stages of uplift (T-J2, J3-K1) and its maximum uplift height is more than 15 km. BHY uplift occurred mainly before the mid-Jurassic (about 150 Ma), but DOB uplift took place after the mid-Jurassic (about 150 Ma).     

Indosinian Tectonic Transition in Yunkai Massif: Petrological and Geochemical Constraints from Two-mica Granite in Yangchun Area,South China

The tectonic background of the Indosinian granites in South China Block remains highly debated. The Yunkai massif, connecting the Paleo-Tethys and Paleo-Pacific tectonic domains, is a key site for studying the tectonic background of the Indosinian granitoids in South China. In this paper, we select a two-mica granitic pluton from the Yangchun area of the Yunkai Massif to conduct comprehensive researches including petrology, geochronology, and geochemistry. Zircon U-Pb dating yield two concordant 206Pb/238U ages of 426.4±1.7 Ma (MSWD=2.4, n=8) and 239.1±1.7 Ma (MSWD=1.2, n=4), respectively. A further monazite U-Pb dating gives only one concordant 206Pb/238U age at 239.0±0.3 Ma (MSWD=1.2, n=31), consistent with the younger zircon U-Pb age. We therefore conclude that the Yangchun two-mica granite was formed during Triassic (ca. 239 Ma). The granite rocks belong to S-type granite with a peraluminous affinity. They also show enrichment in large ion lithophile elements and depletion in high field strength elements and relatively flat chondrite-normalized rare earth element patterns with negative Eu anomalies, and have low zircon saturation temperature of 725–747 ℃ as well. The bulk-rock and monazite Nd and zircon Hf isotope analyses yield whole-rock εNd(t) values from –10.8 to –9.4, monazite εNd(t) values from –10.9 to –8.4, and zircon εHf(t) values from –13.2 to –7.8, with depleted model age ranges of 1.8–1.9 Ga for whole rock tDM2(Nd), 1.7–1.9 Ga for monazite tDM2(Nd) and 1.8–2.1 Ga for zircon tDM2(Hf). The consistent Nd and Hf isotope data among the bulk rock, monazite and zircon in the Yangchun two mica granite indicate that the granite was derived from ancient recycled crustal components. The parent magma experienced a dominated fractionation of plagioclase and monazite which resulted in the negative Sr and Eu anomalies and low LREE concentrations. Considering the regional geological background, we propose that the two-mica granite in the Yangchun area formed during the tectonic transition between the oceanic slab subduction and orogenic collapse: The late Permian shallow-marine sedimentary sequences and I-type granitic magmatism indicate the subduction of Paleo- Tethys Ocean; the early-middle Triassic crustal shortening and thickening triggered the crustal anatexis to form the S-type granitic magmas such as the Yangchun two-mica granitic pluton; the late Triassic terrestrial red deposits and the occurrence of A2-type granite suggest a stage of orogenic collapse and the resultant lithospheric extension. © 2023 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

建立特殊条件下导向钻孔轨迹跟踪和控制的数学模型

建立了在特殊场地条件下,利用雷达探测仪对非开挖钻孔轨迹跟踪和控制的数学模型。在工程实践中,结合计算机技术,利用这个数学模型提供的方法,可以更有效地对非开挖导向钻孔轨迹进行跟踪和控制。     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

MIXTURE ANGLYSIS USING FACTOR ANGLYSIS I: CALIBRATION AND QUANTITATION

One of the major application areas of factor analysis, multivariate calibration and quantitation, is coveredin this review. The algorithms, methodologies and applications covered include principal componentregression, target transformation factor analysis, singular value decomposition and rank annihilationfactor analysis. Many important areas of research having relevance to multivariate calibration andquantitation problems are also covered in this review, including background correction, measurementerror, rank determination, cross-validation, figures of merit, detection of invalid samples, experimentaldesign, sample selection, statistical inference and wavelength selection.     

高台测震新旧台基记录地震及震相特征差异性对比分析

使用相同带宽、同类型地震计BBVS-120观测记录数据,对高台地震台新旧观测山洞的台基环境噪声、地震监测能力及震相记录特征进行对比分析,结果表明,高台测震新山洞的地震监测水平优于旧山洞,部分地区新山洞对于核面反射波的记录更加清晰。     

我国北方500hPa春、夏季平均长波年际异常的EOF分析

利用1958—2008年全球逐日2.5°×2.5°NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)和谐波分析方法对我国北方地区春、夏季平均长波进行了分析。结果表明:(1)我国北方春季平均长波主要表现为亚洲北部从咸海到日本存在一个完整的长波:巴尔喀什湖到我国罗布泊地区以长波脊活动为主,我国东北地区以长波槽活动为主,长波槽、脊的强度均呈增强趋势;夏季平均长波主要表现为乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖及鄂霍次克海地区的长波脊、槽、脊分布,蒙古国到我国北部地区多为长波槽活动,近51年来长波槽存在减弱趋势。(2)春季平均长波的距平变化主要表现为我国西北、华北地区与其上游和下游邻近地区存在反相关关系;夏季平均长波距平变化和春季相比有所东移,即我国北方大部分地区距平变化与其上游和下游地区存在反相关关系。     

Variable stars in the field of open cluster NGC 6819

We report on the discovery of 25 variable stars plus 13 suspected variables found in the field of the open cluster NGC 6819. The stars were identified from time-series photometric data obtained on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma, during two observing runs covering the 19 nights between 1999 June  22–30  and 1999 July  22–31  . The variables found include 12 eclipsing binaries with an additional three suspected, nine BY Draconis systems, plus four variables of other types, including one star believed to be a Cepheid. Three of the 15 eclipsing binaries are believed to be cluster members. Details of a further 10 suspected variable stars are also included.