RCP4.5情景下中国人口对高温暴露度预估研究

基于CMIP5的逐日最高温度模拟资料、GGI情景数据库逐年代人口数据,在RCP4.5情景下,以对应栅格高温日数与人口数量的乘积作为人口对高温的暴露度指标,通过多模式集合平均预估未来中国人口对不同强度高温的暴露度变化。结果表明：相比于基准时段（1981-2010年）,中国人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度从2021-2040年开始明显增加,至2081-2100年暴露度分别增加了5.7倍和17.5倍;除了中国西部部分地区外,全国大部地区人群均受高温的影响,在21世纪中后期中东部大部人口对高温的暴露度超过10.0×10⁶人?d;相比基准时段,随着年代的增长,中国人口对强危害性高温的暴露度在范围和强度上均有明显增加;2081-2100年,人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度增幅减缓。从气象地理区域上看,未来各时段人口对高温、强危害性高温的暴露度均有一定程度增加,但增加明显的区域主要集中在华北、黄淮、江南和江淮地区,华南地区对强危害性高温的暴露度增幅较小。高温日数变化对全国人口对高温暴露度的变化所产生的作用最明显。多模式集合的预估结果可以为防控未来高温风险提供重要的参考价值。     

Quaternary bedrock erosion and landscape evolution in the Sør Rondane Mountains, East Antarctica: Reevaluating rates and processes

Rates and processes of rock weathering, soil formation, and mountain erosion during the Quaternary were evaluated in an inland Antarctic cold desert. The fieldwork involved investigations of weathering features and soil profiles for different stages after deglaciation. Laboratory analyses addressed chemistry of rock coatings and soils, as well as ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of the bedrock. Less resistant gneiss bedrock exposed over 1 Ma shows stone pavements underlain by in situ produced silty soils thinner than 40 cm and rich in sulfates, which reflect the active layer thickness, the absence of cryoturbation, and the predominance of salt weathering. During the same exposure period, more resistant granite bedrock has undergone long-lasting cavernous weathering that produces rootless mushroom-like boulders with a strongly Fe-oxidized coating. The red coating protects the upper surface from weathering while very slow microcracking progresses by the growth of sulfates. Geomorphological evidence and cosmogenic exposure ages combine to provide contrasting average erosion rates. No erosion during the Quaternary is suggested by a striated roche moutonnée exposed more than 2 Ma ago. Differential erosion between granite and gneiss suggests a significant lowering rate of desert pavements in excess of 10 m Ma^− 1. The landscape has been (on the whole) stable, but the erosion rate varies spatially according to microclimate, geology, and surface composition.     

Glacial survival of blockfields on the Varanger Peninsula, northern Norway

For more than hundred years it has been debated whether blockfields in mountain summit areas can be used to delimit the vertical extent of Pleistocene ice sheets. In this study the relationship between blockfields, developed in quartzites and sandstones on the Varanger Peninsula, northern Norway, and glacially derived features have been evaluated. Erratics and circular ablation moraines are superimposed on the blockfields and lateral meltwater channels are eroded into them. Glacial striations and other signs of glacial sculpturing are restricted to low-lying areas with channelled ice flow. Relative ages of the blockfields and the features in them are inferred, and the first measurements of in-situ produced cosmogenic nuclides from the Varanger Peninsula are reported. We conclude that the blockfields have survived underneath at least one thick, cold-based ice sheet. Thus, these blockfields cannot be used as indicators of ice-free conditions as previously suggested for southern Norway. Our results have implications for the potential for land surface preservation beneath ice sheets and for glacial reconstructions in northern Fennoscandia.     

Stress resistance strategy in an arid land shrub: interactions between developmental instability and fractal dimension

This paper investigates allocation of energy to mechanisms that generate and preserve architectural forms (i.e. developmental stability, complexity of branching patterns) and productivity (growth and reproduction) in response to environmental disturbances (i.e. grazing and resource availability). The statistical error in translational symmetry was used to detect random intra-individual variability during development. This can be thought of as a measure of developmental instability caused by stress. Additionally, we use changes in fractal complexity and shoot distribution of branch structures as an alternate indicator of stress. These methods were applied to Anthyllis cytisoides L., a semi-arid environment shrub, to ascertain the effect of grazing and slope exposure on developmental traits in a 2×2 factorial design. The results show that A. cytisoides maintains developmental stability at the expense of productivity. Anthyllis cytisoides was developmentally more stable when grazed and when on south-facing, as opposed to north-facing slopes. On the contrary, shoot length, leaf area, fractal dimension and reproductive-to-vegetative allocation ratio were larger in north- than in south-facing slopes. As a consequence, under extreme xeric conditions, shrub mortality increased in north-facing slopes, especially when not grazed. The removal of transpiring area and the reduction of plant competition favoured developmental stability and survival in grazed plants. Differences between grazed and ungrazed plants were most evident in more mesic (north-facing) areas.     

Late Pleistocene climate of the northern Iberian Peninsula: New insights from palaeoglaciers at Fuentes Carrionas (Cantabrian Mountains)

New ¹⁰Be dates for glacial landforms in the Fuentes Carrionas area (Cantabrian Mountains, nothern Spain) are presented. Mapped and dated landforms in Fuentes Carrionas made possible a palaeoglacier reconstruction for four glacial stages. Results were compared to other nearby palaeoenvironmental proxies, so a final approximation on the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation that caused the four glacial advance stages is proposed. Glaciers reached their maximum extension at 36 ka, in a cold and dry environment. A second advance stage took place between 18.5 and 19.5 ka, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when glaciers advanced in a wet environment, with positive rainfall anomalies. A third glacial advance was dated during the Oldest Dryas, in which climate shifted to extremely cold and dry conditions. Finally, a last stage has been identified and proposed to the Younger Dryas, in which precipitation anomalies are negligible. Our results confirm some of the previously made palaeoglacial and palaeoenvironmental inferences for the Iberian Peninsula, as well as provide valuable and accurate anomalies, which are useful for climate modelling.     

井巷揭煤地面预抽辅助消突技术

井巷如何安全、高效揭穿突出煤层是防突工作不断探索的课题,地面预抽煤层瓦斯辅助消突不失为一种有效的解决途径。基于井巷揭煤突出机理和防突核心任务分析,研究了地面预抽辅助消突技术特点和适应性。工程应用表明,采用洞穴完井和水力压裂强化预抽,可有效降低井巷揭煤区煤层瓦斯含量和瓦斯压力,使揭煤区应力释放或泄压,破坏煤与瓦斯突出的物质基础和动力来源,从而变突出区域（煤层）为非突出区域（煤层）。地面预抽煤层瓦斯能够有效降低井巷揭煤防突工作难度,提高揭煤效率,适合复杂地质条件下石门、井筒揭煤防突工作。     

Palaeosols and palaeokarst beneath subaerial unconformities in an Upper Devonian isolated reef complex (Judy Creek), Swan Hills Formation,west‐central Alberta,Canada

Subaerial unconformities are used widely for palaeoenvironmental and palaeogeographic reconstructions, sequence stratigraphy and petroleum reservoir assessments. Recognition and interpretation of these unconformities, particularly those with associated palaeosols, may be problematic in Lower and Middle Palaeozoic carbonate successions because of the collective effect of limited land plant development, superficial similarities between some pedogenic and marine features, and overprinting by later diagenesis. The isolated Judy Creek reef complex in the Lower Frasnian Swan Hills Formation in west‐central Alberta, Canada, contains two subaerial unconformities, R0.5 and R4, which formed as a consequence of relative sea‐level falls of at least regional scale. Deposits beneath these unconformities have distinctive palaeosol and palaeokarst features. The lower unconformity, R0.5, occurs at the top of a progradational reefal phase of stromatoporoid rudstones–floatstones and peloidal packstones–grainstones and has been recognized in at least one other isolated Swan Hills reef complex (Snipe Lake). Palaeosol–palaeokarst profiles beneath this unconformity extend as deep as ca 2 m below the unconformity. These profiles are characterized by the presence of small rhizoliths, laminar calcretes, ferroan dolomite glaebules, desiccation cracks, breccias, green shale and solution vugs. The upper unconformity, R4, occurs at the top of a backstepping phase of reef growth and has been correlated widely between isolated reefs and carbonate banks on both the western and eastern shelves of the Central Alberta Basin. Palaeosol–palaeokarst profiles, extending as deep as ca 9·5 m beneath the R4 unconformity, are distinguished by abundant, sub‐horizontal desiccation cracks filled with green shale, occurring in peloidal wackestones–packstones. Comparison of the R0.5 and R4 profiles indicates that the major intrinsic controls on the development and modification of the profiles are parent‐material lithology, particularly the prior degree of induration and particle size; the low topographic relief at the top of the reef interior; and limited vegetation of the exposed reef top due to unfavourable growth conditions and geographic isolation. In addition to climate, the major extrinsic controls are the extent of relative sea‐level fall, estimated to be 2·5 to 3 m and 13 to 14 m associated with the R0.5 and R4 unconformities, respectively, and the degree of shoreface erosion during the ensuing marine transgression, estimated to be up to 3 m. This study highlights the complex interplay of mainly physical and chemical processes influencing the formation of subaerial unconformities in carbonate environments during the Devonian, before major evolutionary innovations among vascular land plants led to more intense pedogenesis.     

高强耐热铝合金钻杆材料优选

铝合金钻杆的使用性能是制约深部钻探技术发展的“瓶颈”。本文综合考虑孔内工况因素和钻杆性能因素,以钻柱组合设计为基础准则,从特深孔钻探工程技术需求出发,开展了高强耐温铝合金钻杆材质选择和评价的试验研究。试验结果表明：2219铝合金固溶时效制度分别为535 ℃/1 h、165 ℃/20 h,2618铝合金固溶时效制度分别为530 ℃/1 h、200 ℃/20 h;2219铝合金在高温长时间暴露后的室温力学性能优于2618铝合金,在高温瞬时条件下的力学性能劣于2618铝合金;2219铝合金中含有Zr,该元素在热暴露过程中起到减缓溶质扩散速率的作用,这对提高热暴露后的剩余强度是有利的。     

地表岩石侵蚀速率对宇生核素暴露测年影响的研究

利用原地生宇生核素测定暴露年代时,通常会假设地貌体侵蚀速率为0。研究表明,该假设会低估地貌体的真实暴露年代。搜集2009~2012年全球不同区域56个岩石样品的宇生核素¹⁰Be测年数据,探讨侵蚀速率为0对于侵蚀速率为0.5、1以及2 mm/ka的样品,在不同暴露尺度上对暴露年代计算的影响幅度。结果表明,对于1×10⁴a尺度的样品暴露年代可能低估约0.5%,1%,2%;对于10×10⁴a尺度的样品可能低估约5%,7%,20%;对于50×10⁴a尺度的样品可能低估约40%,70%甚至100%以上。     

Computing least air pollution exposure routes

Personalized routing counts on traveler’s preferences which are usually based on different criteria, such as shortest, fastest, least traffic, or less expensive (e.g., less fuel cost, toll free). However, people are increasingly becoming concerned about the adverse health effects of exposure to air pollution in chosen routes. Exposures to elevated air pollution concentrations particularly endanger children, pregnant women, elderly people, and people with asthma and other respiratory conditions. Choosing routes with least air pollution exposure (APE) is seen as one approach to minimize the level of pollution exposed, which is a major public health issue. Routing algorithms use weights on segments of road networks to find optimum routes. While existing weights are commonly distance and time, among a few others, there is currently no weight based on APE to compute least APE routes. In this paper, we present a weight function that computes weight based on APE. Two different approaches, geostatistical and non-geostatistical, were used to compute APE weight. Each approach was evaluated, and the results indicate that the APE weight is suitable for computing least APE routes.