江淮锋面和华南暖区两次暴雨过程可预报性对比

以2008年6月9—10日江淮地区的锋面暴雨和2008年6月6—7日华南地区的暖区暴雨为例,采用模式试验的方法,研究了这2个不同地域不同类型的暴雨的模式可预报性的差异．控制试验的结果表明,2个地区的暴雨都可以用WRF模式得到较好的模拟再现．通过在控制试验的初始场上对温度场和风场添加高斯随机扰动误差构造敏感性集合成员,结果表明初始场的微小误差在24 h内使得华南暴雨与江淮暴雨的模拟结果都发生较大改变,但华南暴雨的误差增长快于江淮暴雨,导致华南暴雨模拟结果发生更大的改变．通过对集合离散度的分析表明,华南暴雨与江淮暴雨的离散度都随积分时间延长而不断增大,但华南暴雨的集合离散度增长更快,华南暴雨的集合离散度在模式各层上都远大于江淮暴雨．从误差增长和集合预报的角度讲,华南暴雨的模式可预报性比江淮暴雨的模式可预报性差     

The use of Lagrangian trajectories for the identification of the environmentally safe fairways

We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.     

LOCALIZED HADLEY CIRCULATION AND ITS LINKAGE TO PACIFIC SSTA

The 1979-2001 ERA-40 monthly mean meridional winds are used to calculate the mass streamfunctions in the monsoon region (60-140° E) and Nio zone (160° E-120° W),with which the climate characteristics and intensity variation of the localized Hadley circulation (LHC) are analyzed over the two regions and the linkage of this LHC to Pacific SST is explored.Evidence suggests as follows.1) The climatological LHC is stronger in the monsoon than in the Nio zone,with its position in the former northward of the lat...     

岫岩陨石撞击坑结构高精度地震探测研究

我国的岫岩陨石撞击坑位于辽东半岛北部低山丘陵地区,直径1.8 km,保存完好,已被多方面的证据证实为陨石撞击坑.陨石的撞击和此后的沉积作用在坑内形成了特殊的地球物理场,使坑内与坑外的介质在速度、密度等方面存在差异.本次通过采用反射和折射地震相结合的探测方法,利用陨石撞击所形成的岩石的地震波速度和波阻抗差异,获得了陨石坑...     

利用精密单点定位求解电离层延迟

近年来,高时空分辨率的全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)观测信号已成为电离层研究的重要资源.利用GNSS研究电离层,需首先将观测资料转换成包含电离层信息的可观测量(Ionospheric 0bservables,称之为"电离层观测值").目前,最常用的电离层观测值一般采用联合无几何影响组合的码和相位观测,利用相位平滑伪距方法...     

Characterization of permeability and porosity from nanosensor observations

In this paper, we investigate the information content in “nanosensors” with limited functionality that might be injected into a reservoir or an aquifer to provide information on the spatial distribution of properties. The two types of sensors that we consider are sensors that can potentially measure pressure at various times during transport, and sensors can be located in space by perturbations in electrical, magnetic, or acoustic properties. The intent of the study is to determine the resolution of estimates of properties that can be obtained from various combinations of sensors, various frequencies of observations, and various specifications on sensor precision.Our goal is to investigate the resolution of model estimates for various types of measurements. For this, we compute linearized estimates of the sensitivity of the observations to the porosity and permeability assuming gaussian errors in the pressure and location observations. Because the flow is one-dimensional and incompressible, observations of location are sensitive to the porosity between the injection location and the sensor location, while the location of particles is sensitive to the effective permeability over the entire interval from injector to producer. When only the pressure is measured but the location of the sensor is unknown, as might be the situation for a threshold sensor, the pressure is sensitive to both permeability and porosity only in the region between the injector and sensor.In addition to the linearized sensitivity and resolution analyses, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to estimate the posterior pdf for model variables for realistic (non-Gaussian) likelihood models. For a Markov chain of length one million samples approximately 200-500 independent samples are generated for uncertainty and resolution assessment. Results from the MCMC analysis are not in conflict with the linearized analysis.     

三维土-结构动力相互作用体系分析的两步时域显式波动有限元过程

为减少直接分析三维大尺度复杂土-结构动力相互作用问题的计算量,提高计算效率,本文直接从波动方程出发,提出了较常规子结构法更简单的两步简化计算过程,即第一步简化上部复杂结构体系为集中质量杆系模型,并求基础处等效输入,第二步通过等效输入求上部结构各位置的动力反应.其中第一步计算主要采用集中质量显式有限单元法结合局部透射人工...     

实时子结构混合试验中的数值积分方法对比分析

将CR方法运用到振动台子结构混合试验中,并结合作动器的时滞和外插时滞补偿方法进行了研究.文中将改造的中心差分法、改造的算子分解法、改造的Chang方法、改造的显式Newmark方法均与CR方法进行了对比分析.结果表明,改造的算子分解法的稳定性最差,当不考虑阻尼影响时改造的显式Newmark方法的稳定界限为2,改造的中心...     

Relocation of aftershocks of the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake and its implication to seismotectonics

From 14:28 (GMT+8) on May 12th,2008,the origin time of MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,to December 31th,2008,more than 10 000 aftershocks (M≥2.0) had been recorded by the seismic networks in Sichuan and surrounding areas.Using double difference algorithm,the main shock and more than 7 000 aftershocks were relocated.The aftershocks distribute about 350 km long.The depths of aftershocks are mainly between 10 km and 20 km.The average depth of aftershocks is about 13 km after relocation.In the southwest,the distribut...     

利用小震分布和区域应力场确定磁县1830年7.5级强震断层面参数

对邯郸地震台网1984-2008年记录的磁县小地震,作双差定位,然后根据定位结果,对磁县历史强震断层参数作反演计算,求解磁县历史强震断层走向、倾角等特征参数,根据当地应力场来估算磁县历史强震断层的滑动角.