A Connectivity Index for Discrete Fracture Networks

Connectivity is an important measure for assessing flow transport in rock, especially through fractures. In this paper, rock fracture systems are modelled by a discrete fracture model simulated by a marked point process. A connectivity index is then introduced to quantify the connectivity between any two points in space. Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the connectivity index for stationary cases and relationships between the connectivity index and the parameters of the discrete fracture model are analysed. The average number of intersections per fracture, X_f, and the fracture intensity, P12 (P32), are calculated and the relationships between these parameters and the connectivity index are investigated, concluding that X_f is the more suitable parameter for the classification of rock mass flow properties. The relationships between the connectivity index and the percolation state of the fractured medium are also discussed. An edge correction is briefly discussed and a practical example is used to demonstrate the method of computing the connectivity index.     

长江口水域多光谱遥感水深反演模型研究

利用Landsat-7 ETM 遥感影像反射率和实测水深值之间的相关性可以探测水深。该文介绍单波段、双波段比值和多波段3种线性回归模型以及动量BP人工神经网络水深反演模型。选择长江口北港河道上段作为研究区,利用上述模型,分两种情况进行水深反演:一是以河道全部历史样本建模;二是将河道按自然水深划分为浅水区和深水区分别建模。结果表明:神经网络模型预测精度高于线性回归模型;水深分区后线性回归和神经网络模型预测误差均有所减小。     

宁夏产业结构演进与经济增长系统研究

产业结构的演进与升级一定程度上反映了区域经济的发展阶段与发展能力。以1978-2003年的统计数据为基础,系统研究了宁夏产业结构变迁与区域经济发展的关系。研究结果表明:(1)宁夏产业结构的变化符合产业结构变迁的一般规律,但产业结构高度化水平依然低下;(2)宁夏产业结构变迁的空间集聚效应明显;(3)宁夏产业结构演进对经济增长的影响形成产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为负型、产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为正型和产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为正型三种类型;(4)产业结构变迁对各地区经济增长的影响差异较大。研究指出,在西部大开发和区域经济一体化进程中,以及在国家和地区产业政策调整的背景下,建立产业协调与分工合作机制,发展特色优势产业,推进重点地带布局开发,形成区域性“群落型”经济优势,成为新时期宁夏产业结构调整的战略选择。     

湿地生态系统碳循环过程及碳动态模型

从地上、地下有机物质生产对湿地碳输入的贡献,湿地土壤碳库以及土地利用变化对湿地土壤碳库和碳排放的影响,甲烷排放和可溶性有机碳输出以及影响因子,湿地生态系统碳循环动态模型4个方面对湿地生态系统碳循环国内外研究进展和研究成果进行综述、分析,提出了我国亚热带区域天然湿地碳循环研究的主要热点和方向:⑴沿海湿地碳库估算及土地利用转化对土壤碳库和温室气体排放的影响;⑵酸沉降对于我国东南沿海低纬度地区湿地甲烷排放的影响;⑶沿海湿地生态系统碳循环动态模型的应用与开发;⑷湿地系统可溶性有机碳的输出机理探讨.     

Evolution of the Bonneville shoreline scarp in west-central Utah: Comparison of scarp-analysis methods and implications for the diffusion model of hillslope evolution

Wave-cut pluvial shoreline scarps are ideal natural experiments in hillslope evolution because the ages of these scarps are often precisely known and because they form with a range of heights, alluvial textures, and microclimates (i.e., orientation). Previous work using midpoint-slope methods on pluvial scarps in the Basin and Range concluded that scarp evolution is nonlinear and microclimatically controlled. The purpose of this study was to further examine the influence of scarp height, texture and microclimate in an attempt to calibrate a nonlinear model of scarp evolution. To do this, over 150 profiles of the Bonneville shoreline in the adjacent Snake and Tule Valleys, west-central Utah were collected and analyzed by fitting the entire scarp profile to diffusion-equation solutions, taking into account uncertainty in the initial scarp angle. In contrast to previous studies, this analysis revealed no evidence for nonlinearity or microclimatic control. To understand the reason for this discrepancy, we undertook a systematic study of the accuracy of each scarp-analysis method. The midpoint-slope-inverse method was found to yield biased results, with systematically higher diffusion ages for young, tall scarps. The slope-offset method is unbiased but has limited resolution because it requires many scarp profiles to yield a single diffusion age. A method that incorporates the full scarp profile and uncertainty in the initial scarp angle was found to be the most accurate technique. The application of the full-scarp method to the Bonneville shoreline supports the use of a linear diffusion model for scarps up to 20 m in height. Scarp orientation had no discernable effect on diffusivity values. Soil texture was found to have a weak but significant inverse relationship with diffusivity values.     

Modelling net erosion responses to enviroclimatic changes recorded upon multisecular timescales

Land use change has been recognized throughout the Earth as one of the most important factors influencing the occurrence of rainfall-driven geomorphological processes. However, relating the occurrence of historical soil erosion rates is difficult because of the lack of long-term research projects in river basins. Also, complex models are not adequate to reconstruct erosion rate changes because they require significant input data not always available on long timescales. Given the problems with assessing sediment yield using complex erosion models, the objective of this study is to explore a parsimonious scale-adapted erosion model (ADT) from the original Thornes and Douglas algorithms, which aims at reconstruction of annual net erosion (ANE) upon multisecular timescales. As a test site, the Calore River basin (3015 km² in southern Italy) provides a peculiar and unique opportunity for modelling erosion responses to climate and land cover changes, where input-data generation and interpretation results were also supported by documented hydrogeomorphological events that occurred before and after land deforestation. In this way, ANE_ADT-values were reconstructed for the period 1675–2004 by using precipitation indexes, complemented by recent instrumental records, and by using land cover statistics from documented agrarian sources. Pulses of natural sedimentation in the predeforestation period have been related to Vesuvius volcanic activity and changes in rainstorm frequency. After deforestation, the basin system became unstable with sudden fluctuations in the hydrogeomorphological regime contributing significantly to increased erosion and, in turn, sediment transport sequences via river drainage towards the Tyrrhenian coast.     

The formation and evolution of the barrier islands of Inhaca and Bazaruto, Mozambique

The barrier islands of Inhaca and Bazaruto are related to the extensive coastal dune system of the Mozambican coastal plain, south-east Africa. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of key stratigraphic units indicates that accretion of sediment within these systems is episodic. Both islands appear to have been initiated as spits extending from structural offsets in the coastline. Superposition of significant quantities of sediment upon these spits during subsequent sea-level highstands formed the core of the islands, which were anchored and protected by beachrock and aeolianite formation. At least two distinct dune-building phases occurred during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, tentatively attributed to marine transgressions during sub-stages 5e and 5c. Although some localized reactivation of dune surfaces occurred prior to the Holocene, large quantities of sediment were not deposited on either island during the low sea-levels associated with MIS 2. Significant dune-building and sediment reworking occurred immediately prior to and during the Holocene, though it is not clear whether these processes were continuous or episodic. Significant erosion of the eastern shoreline of Bazaruto suggests that it is far less stable than Inhaca and may suffer further large-scale erosion. A model is presented for the formation of barrier islands along the Mozambican coastal plain.     

Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China

Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.