动力作用下砂土的残余体变及其时域连续模型

通过对砂土动力剪切荷载作用过程中的土骨架的弹性和塑性分析,研究了土骨架接触面部分可能发生的弹性恢复和永久变形以及破碎引起的最剧烈的塑性变形;并且,提出了可以通过液化前后颗粒粒径的质量百分含量的对比试验,来验证破碎模型的合理性;为进行砂土动力非线性变形和液化的数值模拟,结合砂土的剪切非线性的本构,总结了更为简化的时域连续的函数经验公式,使得在时域内进行土壤动力特性和动力非线性反应分析,以及用剪胀性理论解释动力液化和变形问题易于进行。     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

STUDIES ON TERRACES AND RIVER SYSTEM CHANGES OF THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER

Ｉ.ＴｈｅＴｅｒｒａｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＵｐｐｅｒＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒＴｈｅｔｅｒｒａｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｕｐｐｅｒＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒａｒｅｍｏｓｔｌｙｄｉｓｐｅｒｓｅｄａｌｏｎｇｔｈｅｗｉｄｅｒｃｏｕｒｓｅｓｉｎｓｅｖｅｒａｌＭｅｓｏｚｏｉｃＣｅｎｏｚｏｉｃｂａｓｉｎｓ(Ｆｉｇｕｒｅ1).1.ＴｅｒｒａｃｅｓｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＮｇｏｒｉｎｇＬａｋｅａｎｄＧｙａｒｉｎｇＬａｋｅＴｈｅｓｕｒｆａｃｅｌａｙｅｒｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｉｎｔｈｅｗｉｄｅａｎｄｓｈａｌｌｏｗｂａｓｉｎｓｗｈｅｒｅｔｈｅＹｅｌｌ…     

中国城市居民的家庭代际分/合居行为及其影响要素——以成都市为例

1978年以来,中国家庭小型化趋向非常显著,尤以代际分居为核心诱因,代际分居对转型期中国的社会稳定、家庭和睦乃至住房市场都构成了很大的影响。而且,中国的代际分居现象及其机制和西方社会存在根本的不同,此文讨论了转型期基于代际分居率和家庭生命周期的中国城市居民分/合居行为的概念模型,随后选择成都市主城区进行了实证,因为该地区不但社会经济发展速度快,户籍居民的老龄化趋向明显,而且兼受中国传统文化和西方文化的耦合影响。与西方发达社会基于家庭生命周期先合居、后分居的规律不同,中国城市居民家庭居住行为呈现出合居—（小）分居—合居—分居—（小）合居—（小）分居—（小）合居的变化过程。采用2012-2013年的实地调研数据,采用Pearson相关性分析法提取主要影响因素,后采用二元logistic 回归方法研究了主要因素对居民分/合居行为的显著性和正负影响,并对不同年龄段的城市居民家庭代际分/合居行为的代际分/合居选择及其影响因素进行了分析。结论如下：① 文化程度、配偶健在、家庭人均收入、父母应帮子女成家、父母应帮子女买房、与子女/父母代际分居意愿、作息习惯、饮食习惯、安静/热闹偏好、卫生习惯、居家习惯和私密空间习惯与家庭代际分居率正向显著;② 年龄、家庭居住面积、父母应帮忙抚养孙辈、（子女）应该养老、父母/子女应临近居住、养儿防老、养育习惯等变量与家庭代际分居率负向显著;③ 不同年龄段居民的代际分/合居选择的影响因素及其显著度有所差异。     

中国城市地理学近期进展

中国城市地理学的兴盛时期始于70年代中期,至80年代进入历史以来最旺盛的发展时期。城市地理学主要研究城市体系、城市化、城市地域结构与具体的大小城镇。其重要的实践领域则主要通过城市规划和区域规划、国土规划。特别是70年代中期借助于我国城市规划工作的复兴,为城市地理学的发展提供了广阔的实践基础。     

Protecting Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS) by Industrial Integration Development (IID): Practices from China

With Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) increasing in number around the world, their conservation has become a new international research theme. From the perspective of combining theoretical analyses and practical case applications, this study examines the Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS) conservation pathways and operation mechanisms through industrial integration development (IID). First, the theoretical framework of IID in IAHS sites was constructed according to the requirements of IAHS conservation, which include analyses of the connotation and basic principles of IID, the necessity of IID for IAHS sites, the resource conditions, and the IID pathways. And then based on the theoretical framework, the IID of Longji Terraces in Guangxi, Honghe Hani Rice Terraces System in Yunnan (HHRTS), Aohan Dryland Farming System in Inner Mongolia (ADFS), and Huzhou Mulberry-dyke & Fish-pond System (HMFS) in Zhejiang are analyzed systematically. The main finding is that IID is an effective pathway for IAHS conservation. However, the IID in IAHS sites must stress the ecological and cultural values of the resources; IID should be based on local resource advantages; and IID should attach importance to the combination of different policies and coordination between different stakeholders.     

内蒙古黄旗海不同粒级湖泊沉积物Rb、Sr组成与环境变化

内蒙古黄旗海湖泊沉积物剖面层次结构清晰完整,通过对该剖面全样、77 μm~20 μm和小于20 μm三个不同粒级Rb、Sr含量和磁化率的系统测定,结果表明,湖泊沉积物中小于20 μm粒级成分的Rb、Sr含量和Rb/Sr值变化阶段明显,Rb/Sr值与磁化率分布曲线十分吻合,因此,小于20 μm粒级成分的Rb/Sr值与磁化率包含更加真实的古气候环境信息。Rb/Sr值反映了风化的强度,因而可以作为指示夏季风环流强度的代用指标。黄旗海湖泊沉积物的地球化学Rb、Sr元素含量和Rb/Sr值以及磁化率值波动特征具有深刻的环境演变背景,由此揭示的环境特征在一定程度上反映了全新世气候千百年尺度的波动变化,与全球气候波动有关。     

Structure of the Potential Vorticity of an Explosive Cyclone over the Eastern Asian Region in Late November 2013

An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.     

THE HOLOCENE SEDIMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC AND PALEOCLIMATIC EVOLUTION OF EBINUR LAKE，XINJIANG

ＴＨＥＨＯＬＯＣＥＮＥＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＡＬＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＡＮＤＰＡＬＥＯＣＬＩＭＡＴＩＣＥＶＯＬＵＴＩＯＮＯＦＥＢＩＮＵＲＬＡＫＥ，ＸＩＮＪＩＡＮＧ吴敬禄，王苏民，吴艳宏ＴＨＥＨＯＬＯＣＥＮＥＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＡＬＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴ...     

主成分分析和熵值法相结合的水质综合评价模型及其在郑州市金水河的应用

水质评价对决策者决定水的使用功效尤为重要。水质综合评价系统中涉及到大量因子与指标,因子之间相互作用,致使水质的评价工作相对困难。主成分分析法可以消除因子间的相关性,因而被广泛应用于水质评价,但其忽略了数据离散程度的问题。熵值法则考虑了数据的离散特点。为更好地进行水质的综合评价,本文提出把主成分分析法和熵值法结合起来确定指标权重的方法,建立了水质评价模型,并采用该模型对郑州市金水河再生水2009年的水质情况进行评价,将评价结果与单独采用主成分分析或熵值法的结果进行了比较。结果表明了该方法的可行性与实用性,能够为非常规水资源利用提供理论依据和决策参考。