海上矿石运输最优船队的组建

针对海上矿石运输，介绍了一种完成定量任务并能使投资费用最少为目标的最优船队组建方法，同时对易变参数进行了灵敏度分析，使决策更加科学化     

协方差阵二次型容许估计的一个必要条件

研究协方差阵Σ的二次型容许估计问题。设 y1,y2 ,… ,yniid,n≥ 2 ,y1与 p维正态分布N (β,Σ )有相同的前四阶矩。其中β =(β1,β2 ,… ,βp)′∈ Rp与Σ =(σij) p× p >0均未知。记 y =△ (y1,y2 ,… ,yn)′。在二次损失 L (d ,Σ ) =tr(d -Σ) 2下给出Σ的二次型估计 a S2 + nby-y-′是容许估计的必要条件为 :(n - 1) a + b + 2 max(a,b)≤ 1。此必要条件比张立振等协方差阵的二次型容许估计中的必要条件有了明显的加强     

我国陆上大中型气田分布规律与有利勘探区带优选

“八五”、“九五”期间我国天然气探明储量幅度增长,大中型气田分布规律的深化研究密切关系到天然气储量的增长势头。克拉通盆地下层序古隆起控气理论和上层序非构造圈闭控气机理是克拉通大中型气田富集分布的基本规律,前陆盆地是我国富气盆地类型之一,其冲断带下盘大型造圈闭群、前缘斜坡岩性尖灭区带与浅层次生气藏、前缘隆起上的断块圈闭群等是该类盆地有利的天然气富集区带。依据充分的地质资料,结合我国天然气勘探实际,提     

山东胜利油田海洋石油勘探开发现状及前景分析

胜利油田海上勘探区 ,位于渤海湾南部的极浅海海域 ,其范围为 :西起四女寺河口 ,经套儿河口、老黄河口、新黄河口、小青河口 ,东到潍河口 ,海岸长 4 1 4km,胜利矿产登记线内面积 4 870 km2 ,水深一般 0～ 5m,最深 1 8m。截止 2 0 0 0年年底 ,已完成二维地震 71 3 6.1 km,三维地震 1 588.58km2 ,完钻探井 1 0 2口 ,测井解释油气层井 87口 ,试油 85口 ,其中 74口获工业油流 ,6口获低产油流。发现了埕岛、埕北 3 0、新滩 3个油田 ,在明化镇组、馆陶组、东营组、沙河街组、中生界、上古生界、下古生界、太古界中发现了 8套含油层系 ,6种类型的油气藏 ,已探明含油面积 1 45.8km2 ,石油地质储量 3 860 9万 t;控制含油面积57.5km2 ,石油地质储量 894 8万 t,其中埕岛油田是渤海域发现最早的亿吨级油田 ,目前已建成 2 1 6万 t年生产能力 ,累积产油 1 0 57万 t。根据两轮资源评价及勘探实践的认识 ,与本区有关的 8个生油凹陷 (岐口、沙南、渤中、埕北、桩东、青东、莱州湾、潍北 )总资源量约 1 2 .0亿 t,目前已找到探明加控制石油地质储量为 4 .75亿 t,仍有较大的勘探开发潜力。今后将对 8个构造带 (埕子口、埕岛、埕北 3 0、长堤、垦东、青东、青坨子、潍北 )进行勘探 ,落实探明储量 ,进一步投入开发 ,为胜利油田     

Nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics in relation to the hydrological pattern in a confined Mediterranean salt marsh (NE Iberian Peninsula)

The role of the hydrological regime in the nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics has been analysed in five lagoons of La Pletera salt marshes (NE Iberian Peninsula) during a complete hydrological cycle (2002–2003). Two of the lagoons have their origin in the old river mouths while the other three were recently created in the framework of a Life Restoration project. This fact has also allowed us to study the effect of the lagoon age on nutrient and zooplankton composition and dynamics. The salt marsh hydrology is determined by a prolonged period of confinement without water inputs, irregularly interrupted by sudden water inputs due to flooding events (sea storms or intense rainfalls). While the dynamics of oxidized nitrogen compounds in the lagoons depends on the water inputs variability within each hydrological cycle, the internal load of phosphorus, total nitrogen and organic matter is related more to the cumulative mechanisms during the confinement periods. Accumulation processes may be easily related to lagoon age, since old lagoons have higher content of nutrients and organic matter, suggesting that these lagoons progressively accumulate nutrients during the successive confinement events. This is the usual case for most Mediterranean salt marshes without an artificially manipulated water regime. The zooplankton community in La Pletera integrates the effects of both the hydrological regime and the lagoon age since the former determines the temporal pattern of the main zooplankton species and the latter explains differences in composition and structure between old and new lagoons.     

Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario).     

关于海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的基础研究

随着海水网箱养殖业的迅速发展,制约海水网箱养殖发展的种种因素也逐步显露出来(风暴潮等恶劣气候、环境污染、人为的破坏等等),海水网箱养殖在预期获得丰厚利润的同时也面临遭受巨大损失的风险。本文对海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的可操作性进行了基础研究,提出了一套适合海水网箱养殖系统的风险评估方法,并就数据的收集和专家评审表做了一些研究,以此客观的反映系统的安全性和可靠性,使决策者实现对养殖系统生命周期的最佳控制。     

Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.     

Are invasive species most successful in habitats of low native species richness across European brackish water seas?

European brackish water seas (Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Caspian Sea) are subject to intense invasion of non-indigenous species (NIS). In these seas, salinity is the most important range limiting factor and native species seem to reach a minimum species richness at intermediate salinities. This trend, revealed by Remane in 1934 and later on confirmed by many other scientists, was compared to the salinity range of already established NIS in the European brackish water seas. It turned out that most NIS are well adapted to the salinities holding lowest native species richness, already in their native area, and that NIS richness maximum in brackish water seas occurs in the salinity intervals of native species richness minimum. A predictable pattern in the salinity range of NIS can be used as a tool in initial risk assessment of future invasions in brackish water seas, especially when mapping highly potential donor and recipient areas. A product of empty niches, suitable environmental conditions, and availability of proper vectors might be the most effective predictor for the invasibility of brackish water areas.