三门峡新一代天气雷达冰雹回波特征分析

利用三门峡新一代天气雷达资料，分析了冰雹天气时雷达产品的特征，并确定冰雹天气预报指标。     

禹州小麦吸浆虫发生程度与气象因素的关系

小麦吸浆虫的发生程度与温度、湿度、日照密切相关。适宜的气温、湿度及日照条件以及2005年土壤中虫源基数较高，是2006年禹州吸浆虫发生严重的主要原因。依据温度条件，建立了吸浆虫发生期预测方程；依据温湿条件，建立了发生量预测方法。此外，还提出了麦播期、孕穗期（蛹期）和抽穗期（成虫期）的防治方法。     

Role of land-surface temperature feedback on model performance for the stable boundary layer

At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme, in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role.     

中国冬季气温的集合典型相关分析和预报

以欧亚大陆地面温度、北半球500 hPa高度、热带印度洋SST(sea surface temperature)以及北太平洋SST为预报因子,通过典型相关分析(canonical correlation analysis,简称CCA)建立预报关系,然后用集合典型相关分析预报(ensemble canonical correlation prediction,简称ECC)方法预报中国冬季气温,并分析预报技巧及进行独立样本检验.结果表明,不同的预报因子对各个地区有不同的预报技巧,以欧亚大陆地面温度为预报因子预报技巧较高,而ECC模式对中国冬季气温有更好的预报能力,预报技巧高于任何一个单因子场的CCA预报;采用回归法的集合平均比简单的等权集合平均预报技巧更稳定.     

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

基于UML的农用地估价信息系统建模与实现

根据农用地估价的基本原理和方法,以ComGIS为系统开发平台,利用UML技术,从系统整体设计入手,提出了采用多层次用例描述法建立农用地估价信息系统(ALEIS)用例模型的过程,在此基础上介绍了ALEIS设计、编码与测试,最后提出了ALEIS的特点与发展趋势。在农用地估价信息系统开发过程中,利用UML对系统进行建模分析能够取得较好的效果。     

GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析

GRAPES是中国新一代数值天气预报模式。使用GRAPES中尺度模式产品和常规观测资料,分析检验了2005、2006年汛期发生在长江流域的11次主要降水天气过程,得到:GRAPES模式对于长江流域的预报,无论是降水、天气形势还是物理量都有比较强的预报能力;GRAPES模式对级别较大的降水预报容易出现漏报,而不易出现空报,对于10mm以下的雨区预报比较准确,而对于大于50mm的雨区预报,尤其是大于100mm的降水中心存在较大的偏差;对于西太平洋副热带高压的预报比实际情况偏南、偏东;对于水汽通量散度的预报与实际情况比较吻合。     

吉林省煤层气资源赋存的地质特征分析

通过对吉林省煤层气的地质特征分析可以看出,煤层气藏的形成是多种地质因素共同作用的结果,它在时空上的分布和区域构造、沉积环境、含煤岩系的岩性组合密切相关。煤层气聚气区多分布在成煤条件相对好的地区,而含煤盆地的沉积类型则控制着聚气带在盆地内的展布。冲积平原类型的含煤盆地,聚气带多发育在远离河道的河流沉积旋回的上部,而山间湖泊类型的含煤盆地,聚气带则发育在山麓相前缘的湖相泥岩上下。长春煤田、辽源煤田和通化煤田是开发利用煤层气资源最有利的首选地区。     

鲁西南邵庄-双庙水源地地下水环境质量现状评价

按照单项组分、综合评价法,对邵庄-双庙水源地第四系孔隙水和寒武-奥陶系岩溶水环境质量现状进行了评价。第四系孔隙水,总体上,以京杭运河为界,运河以西水质较差,运河以东地区、邵庄、双庙水源地所在地段水质较好;蜀山背斜岩溶水系统内大多地段岩溶水水质较好,邵庄水源地岩溶水水质良好,其它地段及双庙地垒岩溶水系统岩溶地下水质量普遍较差。     

浅谈煤田地质勘探中煤质研究和评价的意义

通过我国煤田地质勘探中煤层煤质的分析,研究认为煤炭不仅是重要的能源,同时也是重要的化工原材料,长期以来在煤田地质勘探中侧重于煤炭资源的勘探,忽视了对煤质的分析研究,建议在今后的煤田地质勘探中加强对煤质的分析研究,为煤炭的综合利用提供必要的参数。