基于CMIP6的西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险未来预估

为预估全球变暖背景下中国西南地区未来暴雨洪涝灾害风险的变化特征,研究挑选5个CMIP6模式和5个极端降水指数,结合地形因子、社会经济数据和耕地面积百分比,构建暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型,对西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行基准期(1995—2014年)评估、未来两个时期(2021—2040年,2041—2060年)3种情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)下的预估和对比分析。结果表明：EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg两个单模式对5个极端降水指数的模拟效果较好,不等权重集合(UEWA-5)的效果整体优于等权重集合(EWA-5)。西南地区5个极端降水指数的高值区位于云南西部、广西东北部以及四川盆地西缘,社会脆弱性和辐射强迫越高,极端降水指数平均值和最大值越大; 从基准期到未来两个时期,5个极端降水指数均呈增大趋势。未来暴雨洪涝灾害的中高风险区和高风险区主要分布在四川成都市、重庆中心和四川盆地西部、云南昆明市、广西中南部和桂林市等局部较发达地区; 未来两个时期SSP2-4.5情景下的中高风险区和高风险区面积最大; 从基准期到未来远期,中高风险区和高风险区面积将随着时间增长而增加。     

太湖生态环境演化及其原因分析

太湖地处长江下游三角洲,水域面积为2338km²,平均水深1.9m,最大水深不足2.6m,为一典型的大型浅水湖泊。太湖流域地势平坦,河网密布,河湖水力关系复杂。其主要补给径流来自西南部的天目山区及西部的宜溧河流域。每年夏天,大部分入湖洪水通过位于东太湖的太浦河及东北部的望虞河分别排入黄浦江与长江,由于出入湖河道的特殊位置,使得太湖南部的换水周期较短而北部较长。近几十年来,太湖由于污染而逐步呈现富营养化特征,污染物主要来自北部的无锡市和常州市,通过河道排入太湖北部的五里湖与梅梁湾,因此上述两地的水质较南部差。在东太湖,水产养殖对水环境的影响很大,亦呈现出富营养化特征,并殃及该地区的供水,加之该地区为太湖主要的泄洪通道,因此泥沙淤积严重,而且水生植物生长旺盛,呈现出明显的沼泽化趋势;在太湖四周地区,由于湖泊围垦和水利工程建设,其污染净化能力将降低,从而加速水环境恶化的趋势。太湖所面临这些问题,有待于强化湖泊科学管理来解决。     

苏北盆地白驹凹陷古近系层序地层特征及充填演化模式

根据陆相断陷盆地层序界面在电测曲线和地震剖面上的识别标志、岩石类型组合特点以及古生物资料等方面的特征,在苏北盆地白驹凹陷古近系共识别出6个层序界面,划分出1个超层序组、2个超层序、5个三级层序,其中SQ1、SQ2～SQ4分别为断陷Ⅰ幕初始断陷、断陷-坳陷转化阶段的湖泊层序,SQ5为断陷Ⅲ幕断陷收敛阶段的河流层序.根据盆...     

环境模拟和GIS集成的初步研究

GIS与环境模拟在技术、研究内容、方法上的进一步集成,具有广泛的应用前景.以开展的流域土壤和水资源研究模型的集成和系统化及其应用项目的实际工作,说明了环境模拟和GIS技术集成的必然性;从GIS技术的发展,环境模拟模型的改进与完善,数据的初始化与管理等方面系统地论述了环境模拟模型和GIS集成的必要性.通过现有集成模式的分析,对二者集成的概念框架以及不同的集成方式进行了概念性的描述,结合研究项目给出了集成示例.     

我国无资料地区地表径流计算技术发展与展望

径流计算是水利工程规划及地下水资源评价的基础。通过总结国内无资料地区径流计算的常规方法（水文比拟法、参数等值线图法、径流系数法等）,列举SCS模型、IHACRES模型以及新安江模型等应用于无资料地区径流计算的水文模型,对今后无资料地区径流计算技术进行了展望。提出应尽可能选用多种方法进行径流分析计算,最终选择合理计算方法,以保证计算成果精度。     

区域地质调查文本中文命名实体识别

作为我国地质调查领域最重要的数据源之一,地质调查报告中蕴含着丰富的地学知识及地质体描述等关键信息,准确高质量地抽取地质命名实体为地学知识图谱构建、知识推理及知识演化提供基础。笔者等在阐述地质命名实体识别任务基础上,分析地质实体不仅包含大量专业术语,还存在实体嵌套、大量长实体等领域特性,进一步增加了地质命名实体识别难度。笔者等提出一种基于轻量级预训练模型(ALBERT)—双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM)—条件随机场(CRF)模型的地质命名实体识别方法。首先利用ALBERT对输入字符上下文特征进行建模,并采用BiLSTM对其进行进一步上下文特征表征,最后采用CRF实现标注序列预测。实验结果表明,在构建的地质命名实体识别数据集上,相比于主流的命名实体识别模型算法,本文所提出的方法具有更好的抽取性能,提出的命名实体识别模型能为领域实体识别提供借鉴,同时为地学领域实体关系抽取和地学知识图谱构建提供有力方法支撑。     

伸展区域平衡剖面法及其在构造分析中的应用

从伸展构造样式出发,针对不同的地质模型提出了不同的数学模型作为平衡剖面恢复实现的基础。“多米诺”骨牌模型采用刚体平移,旋转实现恢复,伸展断层转折褶皱模型采用剪切法恢复,也有用等岩层长度法作构造恢复。通过淮阜凹陷实际地质剖面的恢复,数学模型以正演,反演两种角度便捷的实现构造平衡,恢复控凹断层发育期次,通过各期伸展量和伸展速率的计算定量分析的盆地构造。     

Sedimentary facies,production rates and facies models for recent coralline algal gravels,Co. Galway,Ireland

Five sedimentary facies are described from SCUBA diving examination and sampling of Mannin Bay, Ireland. A Bank facies is built up by the unattached coralline algae Lithothamnium corallioides and Phymatolithon calcareum. This autochthonous facies occurs in shallow sheltered environments. In exposed areas a rippled Clean Algal Gravel facies is found composed of coralline and molluscan debris. In intermediate energy areas a Muddy Algal Gravel facies is found with small amounts of live corallines. Sheltered creeks have a Mud facies which is partly carbonate and partly terrigenous. The shallow water coralline algal sediments are overlapped by a Fine Sand facies of mixed biogenic composition. Each facies is characterized by particular phenotypic growth forms of the unattached corallines. Rates of organic calcium carbonate production are obtained which are found to be similar to rates from shallow tropical non-reef environments. The carbonate sediments of Mannin Bay are compared with similar sediments from Kilkerrin Bay. Ireland, from Brittany and from Falmouth Harbour. From these comparisons, facies models are proposed for these carbonate sediments. The major factor controlling facies distribution is coastal morphology. The present day shelf is considered to be too exposed to preserve complete sequences of the shallow water sediments.     

冰川区不同气温估算方法评估 ——以藏东南帕隆4号冰川为例

冰川作为地表特殊的下垫面,冰川区内气温明显低于同高度非冰川区大气温度。如何利用低海拔非冰川区观测资料精确估算高海拔冰川区气温,直接关系着青藏高原冰川消融估算及其水文效应的评估。利用架设在藏东南帕隆藏布4号冰川不同高度带的四台自动气象站资料,分析了冰川区与非冰川区气温的波动特征,评估了迄今为止通用的线性递推模型（DT模型）、分段拟合模型（SM模型）和简化热力学模型（GB模型）三种方法在藏东南冰川区气温估算方面的应用效果。对比研究发现：SM模型在帕隆4号冰川上的模拟效果最为理想且操作相对简单;传统DT模型在消融区存在严重的高估,帕隆4号冰川表面夏季（6-8月）正积温的高估比例接近39%;GB模型由于受到诸如冰川风边界层厚度等不确定性的影响,降低了大范围温度估算的可操作性。     

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.