Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.     

Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.     

Metamorphic petrology and zircon geochronology of high-grade rocks from the central Mozambique Belt of Tanzania: crustal recycling of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic material during the Pan-African orogeny

New data on the metamorphic petrology and zircon geochronology of high‐grade rocks in the central Mozambique Belt (MB) of Tanzania show that this part of the orogen consists of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic material that was structurally reworked during the Pan‐African event. The metamorphic rocks are characterized by a clockwise P–T path, followed by strong decompression, and the time of peak granulite facies metamorphism is similar to other granulite terranes in Tanzania. The predominant rock types are mafic to intermediate granulites, migmatites, granitoid orthogneisses and kyanite/sillimanite‐bearing metapelites. The meta‐granitoid rocks are of calc‐alkaline composition, range in age from late Archean to Neoproterozoic, and their protoliths were probably derived from magmatic arcs during collisional processes. Mafic to intermediate granulites consist of the mineral assemblage garnet–clinopyroxene–plagioclase–quartz–biotite–amphibole ± K‐feldspar ± orthopyroxene ± oxides. Metapelites are composed of garnet‐biotite‐plagioclase ± K‐feldspar ± kyanite/sillimanite ± oxides. Estimated values for peak granulite facies metamorphism are 12–13 kbar and 750–800 °C. Pressures of 5–8 kbar and temperatures of 550–700 °C characterize subsequent retrogression to amphibolite facies conditions. Evidence for a clockwise P–T path is provided by late growth of sillimanite after kyanite in metapelites. Zircon ages indicate that most of the central part of the MB in Tanzania consists of reworked ancient crust as shown by Archean (c. 2970–2500 Ma) and Palaeoproterozoic (c. 2124–1837 Ma) protolith ages. Metamorphic zircon from metapelites and granitoid orthogneisses yielded ages of c. 640 Ma which are considered to date peak regional granulite facies metamorphism during the Pan‐African orogenic event. However, the available zircon ages for the entire MB in East Africa and Madagascar also document that peak metamorphic conditions were reached at different times in different places. Large parts of the MB in central Tanzania consist of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic material that was reworked during the Pan‐African event and that may have been part of the Tanzania Craton and Usagaran domain farther to the west.     

Geomechanical model for the post-Variscan evolution of the Permocarboniferous–Mesozoic basins in Northeast Germany

The Permocarboniferous basins in Northeast Germany formed on the heterogeneous and eroded parts of the Variscan orogene and its deformed northern foreland. Transtensional tectonic movements and thermal re-equilibration lead to medium-scale crustal fragmentation, fast subsidence rates and regional emplacement of large amounts of mostly acidic volcanics. The later basin formation and differentiation was triggered by reversals of the large-scale stress field and reactivation of prominent zones of weakness like the Elbe Fault System and the Rhenohercynian/Saxothuringian boundary that separate different Variscan basement domains in the area. The geomechanical behaviour of the latter plays an important role for the geodynamic evolution of the medium to large-scale structural units, which we can observe today in three dimensions on structural maps, geophysical recordings and digital models. This study concentrates on an area that comprises the southern Northeast German Basin, the Saale Basin, the Flechtingen High, the Harz Mountains High and the Subhercynian Basin. The presented data include re-evaluations of special geological and structural maps, the most recent interpretation of the DEKORP BASIN 9601 seismic profile and observations of exposed rock sections in Northeast Germany. On the basis of different structural inventories and different basement properties, we distinguish two structural units to the south and one structural unit to the north of the Elbe Fault System. For each unit, we propose a geomechanical model of basin formation and basin inversion, and show that the Rhenohercynian Fold and Thrust Belt domain is deformed in a thin-skinned manner, while the Mid-German Crystalline Rise Domain, which is the western part of the Saxothuringian Zone, rather shows a thick-skinned deformation pattern. The geomechanical model for the unit north to the Elbe Fault System takes account to the fact that the base of the Zechstein beneath the present Northeast German basin shows hardly any evidence for brittle deformation, which indicates a relative stable basement. Our geomechanical model suggests that the Permocarboniferous deposits may have contributed to the structural stiffness by covering small to medium scale structures of the upper parts of the brittle basement. It is further suggested that the pre-Zechstein successions underneath the present Northeast German basin were possibly strengthening during the Cretaceous basin inversion, which resulted in stress transfer to the long-lived master faults, as indicated for example by the shape of the salt domes in the vicinity of the latter faults. Contrary to this, post-Zechstein successions deformed in a different and rather complex way that was strongly biased by intensive salt tectonic movements.     

Neoarchaean magmatism and metamorphism of the western granulites in the central domain of the Mozambique belt, Tanzania: U–Pb shrimp geochronology and PT estimates

U–Pb sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) dating of zircons from charnockitic and garnet–biotite gneisses from the central portion of the Mozambique belt, central Tanzania indicate that the protolith granitoids were emplaced in a late Archaean, ca. 2.7 Ga, magmatic event. These ages are similar to other U–Pb and Pb–Pb ages obtained for other gneisses in this part of the belt. Zircon xenocrysts dated between 2.8 and 3.0 Ga indicate the presence of an older basement. Major and trace element geochemistry of these high-grade gneisses suggests that the granitoid protoliths may have formed in an active continental margin environment. Metamorphic zircon rims and multifaceted metamorphic zircons are dated at ca. 2.6 Ga indicating that these rocks were metamorphosed some 50–100 my after their emplacement. Pressure and temperature estimates on the charnockitic and garnet–biotite gneisses were obscured by post-peak metamorphic compositional homogenisation; however, these estimates combined with mineral textures suggest that these rocks underwent isobaric cooling to 800–850 °C at 12–14 kbar. It is considered likely that the granulite facies mineral assemblage developed during the ca. 2.6 Ga event, but it must be considered that it might instead represent a pervasive Neoproterozoic, Pan African, granulite facies overprint, similar to the ubiquitous eastern granulites further to the east.     

Can flat-ramp-flat fault geometry be inferred from fold shape?: A comparison of kinematic and mechanical folds

The inference of fault geometry from suprajacent fold shape relies on consistent and verified forward models of fault-cored folds, e.g. suites of models with differing fault boundary conditions demonstrate the range of possible folding. Results of kinematic (fault-parallel flow) and mechanical (boundary element method) models are compared to ascertain differences in the way the two methods simulate flexure associated with slip along flat-ramp-flat geometry. These differences are assessed by systematically altering fault parameters in each model and observing subsequent changes in the suprajacent fold shapes. Differences between the kinematic and mechanical fault-fold relationships highlight the differences between the methods. Additionally, a laboratory fold is simulated to determine which method might best predict fault parameters from fold shape. Although kinematic folds do not fully capture the three-dimensional nature of geologic folds, mechanical models have non-unique fold-fault relationships. Predicting fault geometry from fold shape is best accomplished by a combination of the two methods.     

Orbitolinidae and Alveolinidae (Foraminiferida) from the uppermost Albian-lower Cenomanian of Monti d'Ocre (Abruzzi, Italy)

A biostratigraphic study carried out in the Monti d'Ocre area, Abruzzi, Central Apennines, allowed us to recognize Orbitolina (Conicorbitolina) moulladei ‘Strata 5 (1985) 1’, Praealveolina iberica Reichel and Praealveolina simplex Reichel in uppermost Albian–lower Cenomanian shelf-edge deposits of the Fossato Machè succession. These foraminifers have now been found for the first time in the Apennines of central Italy; their finding is quite important from a palaeobiogeographic viewpoint, as it contributes to the improvement of our knowledge on facies distribution in the circum-Mediterranean regions during the Cretaceous Period. In the study area, the coeval Monte Rotondo and Monte Orsello sections also crop out; these are characterized by bauxite deposits and stratigraphic gaps reflecting episodes of emergence on the carbonate platform. The Monte Rotondo and Monte Orsello sections accumulated in a platform back-reef environment; consequently, in this sector of the Monti d'Ocre area, the depositional environment shifted from a back-reef westward and southward to a shelf-edge northward, during the latest Albian–early Cenomanian. Owing to synsedimentary tectonics, the area investigated underwent differential subsidence: westward and southward, wide areas were uplifted and subjected to emergence, karstification and bauxite accumulation, whereas sedimentation continued in a shelf-edge environment in the north-eastern area.     

Petrographic of Northwestern Sudan

The sedimentology of the Northwestern Sudan consists of lower, middle and upper cycles. The lower and upper cycles are composed of intercalated fluvial and shallow marine facies, whereas the middle cycle consists entirely of fluvial and glaciofluvial facies. The petrographic analysis shows that the lower and upper cydes consist of quartz and lithic arenite sandstones, whereas the middle cycle consists of arkosic and lithic arenite sandstones. The lower and upper cycle sandstones reflect derivation mainly from recycled orogens with minor contribution from craton interior provenances. However, the middle cycle sandstones indicate derivation from basement uplift, transitional and mainly recycled orogens provenances.     

SARS疫情控制的模拟分析

应用系统动力学模型，定量地分析“早发现、早隔离、早治疗”措施，对于控制SARS疾病扩散与传播的重要性。结果表明，“得病后入院时间”与“隔离措施强度”对于SARS疫情态势发展，具有很大的敏感性与相关性，其中得病后的患者几时去医院治疗，对于疫情的控制具有更重要的意义。同时应用动力学模型，对北京的SARS疫情进行分时间段的模拟与SARS实施控制因素影响分析，结果表明，2003—04—20以后一段时间内实行的各种控制措施，以及5月1日—5月5日的长假对于北京SARS疫情的控制是非常有效的；而4月27日左右北京市社     

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.