基于广义极值分布的巴颜喀拉块体中部地震危险性分析

本文对广义极值分布模型的构建机理进行了深入详细的阐述,给出了逻辑意义更加合理的的重现期和重现水平定义,以及相关的地震危险性评价指标。在此基础上,应用构建模型对巴颜喀拉块体中部的地震危险性做了客观的评价,得出巴颜喀拉块体中部每年的平均最大发震为M_s5.1,每20年发生M_s6.0以上强震可能性超过97%,M_s7.5左右的超强震约100年一遇,块体内部孕育地震的能量积累迅速。     

线性矩法与常规矩法对太湖流域降雨频率分析的比较研究

介绍了线性矩法的基本理论,并与常规矩法进行了初步的比较与分析,说明了其理论上的优越性;以太湖流域的雨量资料为例,选取4个站点分别应用线性矩法和常规矩法估计其不同重现期下年极值降雨频率设计值;最后,利用Monte Carlo方法对太湖流域内96个站点数据进行模拟,比较线性矩法和常规矩法所估计的统计参数。结果表明:线性矩法估计的参数在精确性、不偏性及稳健性方面较常规矩法更优。     

Modelling liquefaction-induced building damage in earthquake loss estimation

The assessment of building damage caused by liquefaction-induced ground deformations requires the definition of building capacity and vulnerability as a function of the demand, as well as damage scales to describe the state of the damaged building. This paper presents a framework for resolving these issues within the context of earthquake loss estimations, where large variations in building stock and ground conditions must be considered. The principal modes of building response to both uniform and differential ground movements are discussed and the uncertainties in their evaluation are highlighted. A unified damage scale is proposed for use in both reconnaissance and assessment of all modes of building damage, including ‘rigid body’ response of structures on stiff foundations to uniform or differential ground movements. The interaction of ground shaking and liquefaction in the context of induced structural damage is also briefly considered. The paper raises important aspects of earthquake loss estimations in regions of liquefaction potential, which remain relatively poorly defined at present.