Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.     

正理庄高89-1区块CO2混相驱参数优化数值模拟研究

为了确保高89-1区块CO2混相驱项目的顺利实施,依据该区块的精细油藏描述成果,在优化适于CO2混相驱模型基础上,建立了符合油藏地质特点的三维地质模型。在此基础上对开发指标进行计算,对五个参数（井网、开发方式、压力水平、注入量和采油速度）进行优化,并提出了推荐方案,预测采收率可达23.10%,比弹性开采方式提高15.16%。     

低渗油藏采收率确定新方法

通过对油藏相渗曲线的归一化处理,利用达西定律理论,建立采油指数与含水率的关系;再通过油藏确定的单井经济极限采油量和油藏极限生产压差求出极限采油指数,从而得到极限含水率;最后以最终水驱体积波及系数与储层退汞效率计算出采收率。并以低渗透油藏为实例验证了该方法的正确与适用性,说明该方法对油田开发中确定低渗油藏采收率具有科学的指导意义。     

提高机采水平的配套技术及应用

随着濮城油田的持续性高速开发,油田综合含水逐渐上升,油水井井况进一步恶化,作为油田生产主体的机械采油井躺井频繁、管杆泵使用寿命缩短。近几年中原油田采油二厂濮城油田年平均躺井数达560井次之多,导致机械采油井维护费用增加,管杆泵投入增大,严重制约着油田的生产和经营。通过加缓蚀剂在油管内壁形成保护油膜,起到润滑作用;应用特殊抽油杆防腐止磨;应用尼龙扶正器对抽油杆体扶正,避免了钢体与钢体的硬磨;应用旋转井口通过地面人力转动改变油管与抽油杆的偏磨面;配合合理生产参数;各种配套技术的合理应用,使濮城油田躺井减少,避免了频繁作业,增加长寿井,管杆泵投入节约了19.3%。     

Fish Assemblage Responses to a Low-head Dam Removal in the Lancang River

Dam removal is becoming an effective approach for aquatic biodiversity restoration in damming river in order to balance the aquatic ecosystem conservation with large-scale cascade damming. However, the effects of dam removal on fish communities in Asian mountainous rivers, which are dominated by Cypriniformes fishes, are still not well known. To determine whether dam removal on a mountainous river benefit restoration of fish diversity, we investigated the response of fish assemblage to dam removal using a before-after-control-impact design in two tributaries of the Lancang River(dam removal river: the Jidu River, and control river: the Fengdian River). Fish surveys were conducted one year prior to dam removal(2012) and three years(2013–2015) following dam removal. We observed rapidly and notably spatio-temporal changes in fish biodiversity metrics and assemblage structure, occurring in the Jidu River within the first year after dam removal. Overall, fish species richness, density and Shannon-Wiener diversity all increased immediately in above-and below-dam sites, and maintained a stable level in subsequent years, compared to unchanged situation in the control river. All sites in the Jidu River experienced shifts in fish composition after dam removal, with the greatest temporal changes occurred in sites below-and above-the former dam, resulting in a temporal homogenization tendency in the dam removed river. These findings suggest that dam removal can benefit the recovery of habitat conditions and fish community in Asian mountainous rivers, but the results should be further evaluated when apply to other dammed rivers since the dam age, fluvial geomorphology and situation of source populations could all affect the responses of fish assemblages.     

考虑冲刷影响的筒型基础竖向极限承载力研究

大直径宽浅式筒型基础,阻水宽度大,在位工作期间受波浪海流作用,其周围土体易被冲刷。为研究单侧地基土体受冲刷后筒型基础的竖向极限承载力变化,通过引进冲刷率的概念,采用有限元方法研究了不同冲刷率下筒型基础的竖向极限承载力;并基于Meyerhof理论建立了计算不同冲刷率下筒型基础竖向极限承载力的极限平衡方法。研究结果表明,随着冲刷率增大,筒型基础的极限承载力出现不同程度的下降,当冲刷率为0.8时,即筒型基础单侧土体冲刷深度达6.4 m时,筒型基础的竖向极限承载力折减率为3.28%。建立的极限平衡算法可准确计算冲刷条件下筒型基础的竖向极限承载力。     

基于数字全息显微的海洋浮游生物三维形貌快速重建方法研究

针对海洋浮游生物实时探测中,三维形貌特征难以快速获取的问题,本文提出了一种海洋浮游生物三维形貌快速重建的方法。基于离轴菲涅尔数字全息显微系统,通过改进相位恢复方法预消除相位畸变,直接得到正确的相位信息,进而对浮游生物三维形貌重建。该方法不需要进行后期复杂的相位补偿计算,就可以对浮游生物三维形貌进行快速重建,有利于对动态、微小尺寸的浮游生物进行实时探测及分析。论文对青岛近海岸浮游生物桡足类和夜光虫进行了三维形貌重建,分辨率可达到3.5μm。实验结果为离轴菲涅尔数字全息显微系统用于海洋浮游生物原位、实时探测的可行性提供了依据。     

重要信息系统的灾难恢复刍议

现代社会和生活越来越依赖于IT系统,信息系统遭到灾难和毁灭性打击将是社会公众的灾难和噩梦。美国“9.11”事件中纽约交易所成功实施了信息服务灾难恢复计划,使得全球对于“业务连续和灾难恢复”有了重新的认识。在我国,信息安全也日益成为政府部门管理层、企业和公众关注的重要话题。企业的弹性、系统的健壮性,信息系统的抗毁性与灾难恢复日益深入人心,风险管理越来越为业界所重视。地震部门在政府应急联动系统中具有重要作用,其本身的信息系统安全已逐步引起重视。     

超声回弹综合法检测单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率分析

在实际工程检测数据的基础上,利用M on te C arlo试验对单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率问题进行了分析。30片梁板实测数据分析结果表明:将构件各测区混凝土强度换算值的最小值作为该构件的混凝土强度推定值的保证率范围为79.0%~94.2%,小于《超声回弹综合法检测混凝土强度技术规程》(CECS 02:88)规定的95%保证率要求,因此,对结构性能鉴定而言该混凝土强度推定值是偏于不安全的,应引起试验检测人员的充分重视。     

Single epoch GPS deformation signals extraction and gross error detection technique based on wavelet transform

IntroductionGPS technique is widely used for deformationmonitoring thanks for the high precision. Usual-ly , there are three working modes associatedwith GPS deformation observation: periodicalGPS deformation monitoring net , GPS monito-ring array and rea…