国际工序贸易的空间经济分布效应研究——克鲁格曼开放度假说的再考察

基于开放经济新中心是否与封闭经济原有中心空间重合的视角,以中国为背景对国际工序贸易影响空间经济分布的三大渠道进行理论阐释,在全球价值链背景下重新考察克鲁格曼的开放度假说。在理论分析基础上,借助加工贸易集聚熵指数和空间赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数（及校正地理集中指数）分别度量各省国际工序贸易嵌入程度和空间经济集聚水平,以中国23个省2001~2016年的面板数据构建动态面板模型,利用差分和系统广义矩估计对提出的理论假说进行实证分析和稳健性检验。结果表明：与开放度假说相反,国际工序贸易促进省域空间经济集聚;且工序贸易对经济集聚的促进作用在沿海要大于内陆。     

高速影像中风沙颗粒灰度和表观粒径的变化特征及对多假设追踪算法的意义

沙粒轨迹形成过程是理解风沙两相流输运力学机制的关键问题。多假设追踪算法通过融合追踪目标的多个信息特征和建立后验概率控制的动态递归算法来实现对目标的准确追踪,其精度可能优于传统的基于位置信息的轨迹追踪算法。基于多假设追踪算法的需要,以沙粒灰度和表观粒径(沙粒在影像上显现的大小)为对象,通过分析沙粒在轨迹形成过程中灰度和表观粒径的辨识度及稳定性来揭示它们作为多假设轨迹算法的特征参数的可能性和可靠性。结果表明:沙粒灰阶25~255,具有多峰分布的特征,表明不同沙粒灰度具有很好的区分度;80%~85%的沙粒在入射、反弹过程及粒-床碰撞后,灰度差在1倍标准偏差之内,表明大多数沙粒的灰度具有相对的稳定性;沙粒的表观粒径分布于77~1 001μm,表明表观粒径具有较好的区分度;97%~100%的沙粒在入射、反弹过程中、77%的沙粒在粒-床碰撞后,表观粒径差均是稳定的(77~154μm);仅有15%~23%的沙粒发生了显著的侧向运动或自旋,表明多数沙粒的灰度和表观粒径的稳定性不受侧向运动或自旋的影响;灰度和表观粒径可以作为多假设追踪算法的重要辨识参数。     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PROCESSES OF WANDERING-BRAIDED RIAVER CHANNEL EVOLUTION

1INTRODUCTIONErgodichypothesisisoneofthebasicconceptsofmoderngeomorphology.Itsuggeststhatundercertaincircumstancessamplinginspacecanbeequivalenttosamplingthroughtime;andthatspace-timetransformationsarepermissibleasaworkingtool.Thisisbasedontheassumptionthat,whenindividualmembersofapopulationoflandformsarechangingregularlythroughtime,thespatialfrequencyofoccurrenceofgiventypesoflandformsisinverselyproportionaltotheirrateofchange(Chorley,etal.,1985).TheconceptofthecycleofDavis'erosioninwhi…     

Ecohydrologic separation alters interpreted hydrologic stores and fluxes in a headwater mountain catchment

Recent studies have demonstrated that compartmentalized pools of water preferentially supply either plant transpiration (poorly mobile water) or streamflow and groundwater (highly mobile water) in some catchments, a phenomenon referred to as ecohydrologic separation. The omission of processes accounting for ecohydrologic separation in standard applications of hydrological models is expected to influence estimates of water residence times and plant water availability. However, few studies have tested this expectation or investigated how ecohydrologic separation alters interpretations of stores and fluxes of water within a catchment. In this study, we compare two rainfall‐runoff models that integrate catchment‐scale representations of transport, one that incorporates ecohydrologic separation and one that does not. The models were developed for a second‐order watershed at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon, USA), the site where ecohydrologic separation was first observed, and calibrated against multiple years of stream discharge and chloride concentration. Model structural variations caused mixed results for differences in calibrated parameters and differences in storage between reservoirs. However, large differences in catchment storage volumes and fluxes arise when considering only mobile water. These changes influence interpreted residence times for streamflow‐generating water, demonstrating the importance of ecohydrologic separation in catchment‐scale water and solute transport.     

Modeling the effect of saltation on surface layer turbulence

Particle–turbulence interaction has been a research focus in the field of pneumatic transport, especially in aeolian environments. However, knowledge regarding the effect of saltating particles on the turbulence characteristics is very limited. In this article, a process of sand-laden flow from forming sand streamers to stability is investigated via a coupled mathematical model of wind-blown sand that includes the spatiotemporal development. The variations in the turbulence characteristics, such as the mean velocity and turbulence intensity in clean air or sand-laden flow field, are analyzed. The results show that the splash process of sand grains near the wall decrease the wind speed in the saltation layer and destroy the low-speed streaks. Moreover, the profiles of streamwise turbulence intensity exhibit a transition from ‘decreasing’ to ‘increasing’ and approximately intersect at an ‘intensity focus’, which is presented for the first time. Furthermore, it was found that saltating particles could enhance the Reynolds stress. Meanwhile, it was also noticed that the shear stress at the wall surface is greater than the impact threshold and that there is a tendency towards the impact threshold. Therefore, saltation makes the particle Reynolds number of sand-laden flow higher than that under non-saltation conditions, thus changing the particles’ effect on the turbulence intensity. Gravity-dominated saltation is probably the most essential difference between wind-blown sand and other traditional two-phase flows. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强降雨下基于Green-Ampt模型的边坡稳定性分析

降雨入渗分析方法直接影响降雨型滑坡的预测与防范。Green-Ampt（GA）模型物理意义明确、参数较少,在降雨型滑坡分析中逐渐得到了重视,但该方法忽略了湿润层非饱和层的存在以及饱和层渗流而影响计算精度。针对以上不足,基于GA模型,建立了适用于边坡并且能综合考虑湿润层土体含水率分布情况与饱和层内平行于坡面渗流作用的降雨入渗分析（LSGA）模型,并提出了该模型下边坡稳定性系数表达式。结果表明：对于不考虑分层的无限长边坡,LSGA模型可简化为GA模型,说明GA模型是LSGA模型的一个特例;与LSGA模型相比,GA模型在失稳深度和时间上有较大延缓;饱和层渗流作用对湿润层特性影响较小,对边坡稳定性影响较大;相反,坡体长度方向尺寸效应则对湿润层特性影响明显,而对边坡稳定性影响较小;利用LSGA模型和稳定性评价方法得到的结果与模型试验揭示的现象基本吻合,证明了该方法有较好的精确性和可靠性。     

基于K2结构学习算法的多光谱影像贝叶斯网络分类器

用基于启发式搜索的结构学习算法,学习得到多光谱影像的贝叶斯网络结构,分析了TM的波段（特征）间条件独立性假设的合理性,给出了贝叶斯推理中后验概率计算的公式,并通过和最大似然法对比试验分析了简单贝叶斯网络应用于多光谱影像分类的优势。     

The application of range of variability approach to the assessment of a check dam on riverine habitat alteration

This report uses the intermediate disturbance hypothesis to assess the influence of constructing a check dam on river environment. HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS programs were used to generate hydraulic parameters such as flow discharge, water depth, velocity, water surface width and sediment discharge. Indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) and indicator of habitat alteration (IHabA) were used to evaluate the flow and habitat conditions before and after check dam construction. The range of variability approach was used to calculate the degree of hydrologic alteration for each IHA, degree of habitat alteration and overall alteration for IHabA. Variability of river habitats before and after check dam construction was contrasted. Alteration became larger the closer to the dam body. An assessment method for check dam construction is offered which does not require ecological investigation data and combines ecology concepts and hydraulics.     

Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya

The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km² headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty²) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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