矿床,同步耦合断层和惯量差假说

根据找矿预测中发现的问题,从探索矿床的本质特征入手,重新定义了矿床。根据本文定义的“矿床”及其所规定的矿床学研究要点,又继续探索并发现了板块构造理论中的基本概念———转换断层的本质特征,并将具有此类特征的断层定义为“同步耦合断层”。产生同步耦合断层的地球动力学机制是：非均质的地球作变速自转时,在经向和纬向惯性力同时作用下,惯量不同的相邻板块因惯量差诱发的相对运动。为此,提出了新的地球动力学原理———惯量差假说。根据此假说的基本原理分别构思了地球自转处于减速期、过渡期和加速期的全球构造体系框架。指出同步耦合断层的张性耦合区是控制大型、超大型矿床成带分布的重要空间。以此认识指导找矿预测实践,取得了一定的成效。     

Estimating Variogram Uncertainty

The variogram is central to any geostatistical survey, but the precision of a variogram estimated from sample data by the method of moments is unknown. It is important to be able to quantify variogram uncertainty to ensure that the variogram estimate is sufficiently accurate for kriging. In previous studies theoretical expressions have been derived to approximate uncertainty in both estimates of the experimental variogram and fitted variogram models. These expressions rely upon various statistical assumptions about the data and are largely untested. They express variogram uncertainty as functions of the sampling positions and the underlying variogram. Thus the expressions can be used to design efficient sampling schemes for estimating a particular variogram. Extensive simulation tests show that for a Gaussian variable with a known variogram, the expression for the uncertainty of the experimental variogram estimate is accurate. In practice however, the variogram of the variable is unknown and the fitted variogram model must be used instead. For sampling schemes of 100 points or more this has only a small effect on the accuracy of the uncertainty estimate. The theoretical expressions for the uncertainty of fitted variogram models generally overestimate the precision of fitted parameters. The uncertainty of the fitted parameters can be determined more accurately by simulating multiple experimental variograms and fitting variogram models to these. The tests emphasize the importance of distinguishing between the variogram of the field being surveyed and the variogram of the random process which generated the field. These variograms are not necessarily identical. Most studies of variogram uncertainty describe the uncertainty associated with the variogram of the random process. Generally however, it is the variogram of the field being surveyed which is of interest. For intensive sampling schemes, estimates of the field variogram are significantly more precise than estimates of the random process variogram. It is important, when designing efficient sampling schemes or fitting variogram models, that the appropriate expression for variogram uncertainty is applied.     

有偏估计与LS估计的比较与选择

从假设检验的角度研究测量平差Gauss-Markov模型中有偏估计与LS估计的选择问题。首先在均方误差准则下对目前应用最广泛的2种有偏估计－－岭估计和主成分估计与LS估计进行了比较研究，得到了岭估计、主成分估计优于LS估计的条件；然后运用统计方法对这些条件的成立进行了假设检验；最后通过数值实验说明，在一定显著性水平下当原假设被接受时，说明没有理由不相信采用有偏估计来代替LS估计的合理性，可认为采用有偏估计将对LS估计做出比较有效的改进，当原假设被拒绝时，说明对采用有偏估计的优越性产生了怀疑，此时建议仍采用LS估计。     

On the possibility of quantifying diffusion and horizontal Lorentz forces at the Earth’s core surface

If the main magnetic field at the core surface changes in time only as a result of its advection by fluid motions (i.e. under the frozen-flux (FF) assumption), it should satisfy a number of integral constraints. Additional similar constraints should apply if the flow is further assumed to be tangentially geostrophic or purely toroidal. Those integral constraints have been used in the past to test each of these assumptions. Possible violation of some of the frozen-flux constraints have led to the suggestion that significant diffusion could have occurred below South Africa in the past century. This suggests that diffusion could indeed be quantified with the help of those integrals. Here, we consider this possibility in general terms, and show that when all assumptions are relaxed, the no-longer zero values taken by those integrals could be used, at least in principle, to infer some quantitative information about the amount of diffusion and horizontal Lorentz forces acting everywhere at the core surface. The extent to which those theoretical results could be of any practical use remains to be assessed.     

137Cs技术定量侵蚀速率常用模型及其讨论

土壤侵蚀将导致严重的土地退化和其它环境危害，侵蚀危害的评估需要关于侵蚀速率和侵蚀的时空分布模式的大量信息。^137Cs具有独特的输入来源和地球化学性质，使其它为研究自^137Cs首次沉降以来约30年的平均土壤侵蚀速率的最优示踪剂。比例模型、简化的质量平衡模型、基于^137Cs地表富集的质量平衡模型、剖面分布模型是近年来常用的几种模型，各有其优势和局限性。这些模型都是在一些假设的基础上推导出来的，这些假设是否成立需要理论论证和实验验证，文章对多数定量模型所含的假设条件进行讨论。     

GPS网平差中异常观测的平差补偿方法

首先分析了异常观测信息对参数结果的影响;然后以假设检验为手段通过残差向量构造粗差判别统计量,以一定的置信水平判定哪个观测值可能含有异常,有针对性地在相应的观测方程中引入新的平差参数。通过附加参数的平差补偿模型求出异常大小,从而控制异常数据对结果的影响。实测GPS算例表明,通过该方法能够有效地抵制参数先验信息异常的影响,并能解出异常误差的大小。     

拟稳平差在测量数据处理中的应用

拟稳平差是一种顾及基准点稳定性的平差方法,在变形监测领域有着广泛的应用。介绍了拟稳平差的基本原理,说明了拟稳平差在沉降观测中的应用;拟稳平差的关键是选取符合实际的“拟稳点”,讨论了拟口点选择的两种方法：假设检验法和模糊聚类法,并给出算例进行说明。     

区域经济增长俱乐部趋同：假说检验及解释

研究俱乐部趋同可以更加准确地观察区域经济增长的空间格局,针对性地分析不同类型区域经济增长的影响因素,这对于缩小区域经济差异具有重要意义。从俱乐部趋同假说的检验、解释及中国的相关研究等方面对现有国内外文献进行综述,并指出有待进一步拓展的研究方向,以期为国内该领域的深入研究提供借鉴。     

国际工序贸易的空间经济分布效应研究——克鲁格曼开放度假说的再考察

基于开放经济新中心是否与封闭经济原有中心空间重合的视角,以中国为背景对国际工序贸易影响空间经济分布的三大渠道进行理论阐释,在全球价值链背景下重新考察克鲁格曼的开放度假说。在理论分析基础上,借助加工贸易集聚熵指数和空间赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数（及校正地理集中指数）分别度量各省国际工序贸易嵌入程度和空间经济集聚水平,以中国23个省2001~2016年的面板数据构建动态面板模型,利用差分和系统广义矩估计对提出的理论假说进行实证分析和稳健性检验。结果表明：与开放度假说相反,国际工序贸易促进省域空间经济集聚;且工序贸易对经济集聚的促进作用在沿海要大于内陆。