秦岭造山带基础地质研究新进展

“八五”－“九五”期间秦岭的多项研究中，主要取得以下新认识：①创立了抽拉－逆冲岩片构造新理论，丰富和发展了岩石圈板块或壳块运动方式的多样性；②发现了东西向的秦岭造山带从显生宙以来有南北向的隆升带和沉积盆地，特别是太白、宝鸡－佛坪－汉南隆升带的发现，将从根本上改变秦岭乃至中国中东部构造格架的认识；③南北向沉积盆地转变为东西向造山带的Ⅱ型造山带，深部构造岩片抽拉－逆冲推覆在中（新）生代陆相沉积盆地之上所形成的Ⅲ型造山带，为地壳表层增添了两种新型的造山带；④提出秦岭造山带中存在3类沉积盆地，3种盆－山转换，3个发展阶段及3种型式（Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ）的造山带；⑤重新厘定商丹带、勉略带和二郎坪带的构造属性、形成时代，首次提出秦岭受3种体制，4个发展阶段的新观点，由抽拉构造形成的陆内造山带是秦岭最重要的划时代发展阶段；⑥提出立交桥式结构观点；⑦发现了一批前震旦系变质地层结晶岩系，重新厘定了一些地层的时代，特别是西秦岭、西成铅锌矿田中元古代地层的发现和超大型厂坝矿床产于其中，有重大的理论和实际意义；⑧提出准浊流态流体的新概念；⑨提出中国和秦岭大地构造发展演化的新全球动力学理论。     

物理上真实,数学上简洁--考虑复杂性问题的基本思路

就地壳及其动力学过程的复杂性，结合地震预报与机理的研究现状和方法，提出了个人的看法，简介了非线性动态有限元方法。     

钱塘江河口年最高潮位的随机特性

在海塘建设和工程设计中,将年最高潮位系列视为服从某一确定分布的随机变量,并以此为基础为海塘等工程建设提供设计参数。为确证年最高潮位不具有非随机特性,并提高频率分析法推求设计值的可信度,采用序列自相关系数、序列秩号相关系数、序列秩号和、序列秩号与序号的相关系数、序列游程数和序列转折点数等6种非参数假设检验的方法,分析了钱塘江河口8个水位站的年最高潮位系列的随机特性。实例分析的结果表明,提供的假设检验方法对分析水文时间序列的一致性具有实用意义。     

大尺度驱动因子对新疆极端冷事件的单一与耦合影响

全球变暖背景下,偶发极端冷事件产生的重大灾害损失不容忽视。探究区域极端冷事件的大尺度驱动因子的耦合影响,对预估和应对气候变化产生的极端灾害具有重要意义。本文基于新疆1961—2016年53个气象站点的逐日气温资料,通过反距离加权等方法对极端冷事件的时空演变特征进行分析;利用交叉小波变换对6个极端冷指数与大尺度驱动因子——北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）进行多尺度分析;使用参数假设检验对大尺度驱动因子单一/耦合模态下的冷指数变化进行统计学显著性检验,随后对大尺度环流机制进行距平合成分析。结果表明：年均冷指数在时间尺度上均有显著性变化,新疆气温有明显的变暖趋势;空间尺度上冷指数在北疆、东疆和伊犁河谷地区的变化幅度远大于其他区域,存在空间差异性。AO、NAO与冷指数的相关性较强,ENSO与冷指数相关关系最弱但存在明显的时滞效应,大尺度驱动因子对极端冷指数的总体影响程度为AO>NAO>ENSO。单一模态下,极端冷事件在AO负位相、NAO负位相和La Ni?a事件期间易发生。耦合模态下,EI Ni?o-AO正位相和EI Ni?o-NAO正位相配置下冷日日数偏多;EI Ni?o-NAO负位相配置时极端低温值更小;La Ni?a-AO负位相和La Ni?a-NAO正位相时极端冷事件发生的可能性更大。EI Ni?o（La Ni?a）事件对AO（NAO）有一定的调制作用。新疆极端冷事件更易出现在La Ni?a-AO负位相、La Ni?a-NAO正位相时期,成因与亚欧大陆中高纬度位势异常导致冷空气路径偏西、乌拉尔阻塞加强与偏北气流影响新疆有关。     

ˮ׼���ݴֲ�̽�����Ϸ�������

???Ч????????????????????????????????????????Baarda??????д???????????????????????Baarda??????????????????????????????????????÷????????Ч?????????????е??????????????????     

Assessing the South African sardine resource: two stocks rather than one?

Sardine Sardinops sagax distributed off the west and south coasts of South Africa have traditionally been assumed to comprise a single well-mixed stock for assessment and management purposes. New research, however, lends weight to the possibility of two stocks in this region. A precautionary management approach thus needs to consider the impact of management decisions on the hypothesised two individual stocks as well as on the resource as a whole. As a first step in this process, Bayesian assessments of South African sardine are presented, which compare results for the traditional single-stock hypothesis with those that follow from a new two-mixing-stock hypothesis. Recruits from the west stock are assumed to move to and remain part of the south stock in annual pulses of varying size. This movement is estimated to be appreciable, and to take place from a substantially more productive west stock to the south stock. This immigration makes a greater contribution to the south-stock biomass than do years of above-average south-stock recruitment. Importantly, this two-mixing-stock hypothesis is shown to be consistent with the data available. Further alternative sardine stock-structure hypotheses suggested by the most recent data are discussed.     

Possibilities for the detection of hydrogen peroxide-water-based life on Mars by the Phoenix Lander

The Phoenix Lander landed on Mars on 25 May 2008. It has instruments on board to explore the geology and climate of subpolar Mars and to explore if life ever arose on Mars. Although the Phoenix mission is not a life detection mission per se, it will look for the presence of organic compounds and other evidence to support or discredit the notion of past or present life.The possibility of extant life on Mars has been raised by a reinterpretation of the Viking biology experiments [Houtkooper, J. M., Schulze-Makuch, D., 2007. A possible biogenic origin for hydrogen peroxide on Mars: the Viking results reinterpreted. International Journal of Astrobiology 6, 147-152]. The results of these experiments are in accordance with life based on a mixture of water and hydrogen peroxide instead of water. The near-surface conditions on Mars would give an evolutionary advantage to organisms employing a mixture of H₂O₂ and H₂O in their intracellular fluid: the mixture has a low freezing point, is hygroscopic and provides a source of oxygen. The H₂O₂-H₂O hypothesis also explains the Viking results in a logically consistent way. With regard to its compatibility with cellular contents, H₂O₂ is used for a variety of purposes in terran biochemistry. The ability of the anticipated organisms to withstand low temperatures and the relatively high water vapor content of the atmosphere in the Martian arctic, means that Phoenix will land in an area not inimical to H₂O₂-H₂O-based life. Phoenix has a suite of instruments which may be able to detect the signatures of such putative organisms.     

卡尔曼滤波模型误差的识别

本文在简述卡尔曼滤波模型基础上讨论了模型误差的检验和估计问题,提出了检验卡尔曼滤波模型误差显著性的几种统计假设检验方法,探讨并给出了估计模型误差的方法和公式。     

Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

论鸟类飞行的起源

笔者简要介绍了有关鸟类飞行起源的两种假说,即“飞行的树栖起源”假说和“飞行的奔跑起源”假说,并根据近几年中国辽西发现的化石材料,对两种假说的立论依据和机理进行了分析和评述,初步认为两种可能性均存在,但因奔跑而飞地的机制更为普遍合理,“上树”是一种可能的条件,但既非必要条件也非充分条件。