Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models

Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.     

安徽冬季地面降水相态的判别研究

文章对安徽省2000—2009年11月至次年4月的雨、雨夹雪、雪和冻雨四类降水相态样本的温度、相对湿度和假相当位温分布特征进行了分析。从地面到500 hPa,气温、相对湿度和假相当位温对平原、山区的地面降水相态的区分能力均逐渐减弱,且相对湿度对降水相态的区分能力远弱于气温和假相当位温。在同一气压层上,假相当位温与气温对平原地区地面降水相态的区分能力相当,而假相当位温在某些气压层上对山区降水相态的区分能力略优于气温。在不同气压层上,平原地区各降水相态的气温和假相当位温均接近正态分布,山区假相当位温相对于气温更接近正态分布。因此假相当位温更适合作为地面降水相态的判别因子。选取地面到500 hPa共6个气压层(山区5个)的假相当位温作为地面降水相态的判别因子建立多级判别方程,利用2010年的降水相态样本对所建立的多级判别方程进行独立性检验。结果表明:多级判别方程对雨、雨夹雪或雪、冻雨的区分能力较好,对雨夹雪与雪的区分能力相对较弱。利用T639模式资料对两个降水相态复杂个例进行预报检验,多级判别方程能较好地预报雨雪转换的时间及区域,对降水相态的预报具有较高的参考价值。     

岩体裂隙等效水力隙宽的统计确定方法

针对天然裂隙岩体等效水力隙宽确定的复杂性,利用平行板水流的立方定律及流量等效原理,推导出光滑平行板单裂隙的等效水力隙宽公式,同时对隙宽分布的频率特性进行了探讨,认为非均匀隙宽单裂隙的等效水力隙宽可近似取40%频率的隙宽,或取隙宽的几何平均值与调和平均值的算术平均值.     

砂泥岩间互地层等效岩石力学参数计算模型及其应用

以地层岩石的变形分析为基础,从能量的角度出发,利用应变能理论及能量守恒定律推导出了等效岩石力学参数的一般计算公式,并建立了测井资料计算模型;利用该模型计算了库车坳陷克拉A气田目的层系巴什基奇克组的等效岩石力学参数,并以计算结果为基础进行了应力场及储层裂缝的数值模拟;最后讨论了等效岩石力学参数测井资料计算模型的优点及适用条件。模拟结果显示,储层裂缝集中发育在背斜高点及单斜构造部位,与气田目前的开发实践基本一致,表明了所建模型的合理性;等效岩石力学参数适用于区域性的横向应力场及储层裂缝预测,不适于预测局部或垂向上的储层裂缝分布规律。     

Numerically based proposals for the stiffness and strength of masonry infills with openings in reinforced concrete frames

Aimed at investigating the effect of openings on the in‐plane behaviour of masonry infills in reinforced concrete frames, a parametric study is presented based on model calibration via experimental tests. Two types of openings are investigated: central window openings and different combinations of door and window openings based on the typologies of southern European countries. First, a finite element model of the structure is made using the DIANA software program. Then, after calibration with experimental results, a parametric analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of the presence and location of the different types of openings on the in‐plane behaviour of the infilled frame. Finally, different equations for predicting the initial stiffness and lateral strength of infilled frames with any types of openings were obtained. An α factor related to the geometry of the piers between openings is proposed to take into account the location of the openings in the developed equations. Subsequently, the masonry infill panel is replaced by a diagonal strut. An empirical equation is also proposed for the width of an equivalent strut to replace a masonry infill panel with openings in such a way that they possess the same initial stiffness. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

没水倾斜板式防波堤消波性能分析

提出了一种将波浪中倾斜板问题等效化简为波浪中水平板单元组的方法,该方法建立在使用分离变量法求解水工结构边值问题的基础上,并使用伽辽金法精确求解连续边界条件,确定考虑衰减波态的速度势函数,从而求解没水倾斜板结构的消波性能。等效化简法计算精度于边界元法相当,且计算单元数量少、开销低。基于二维线性势波理论,对没水倾斜板式防波堤消波性能分析显示,没水板的倾斜角度、没水深度与板长是结构消波性能的控制因素:没水倾斜板防波堤的消波性能优于没水水平板防波堤的消波性能,随着没水板结构的倾斜角度增大,没水倾斜板结构的波浪透射系数显著减小,且长板优于短板,浅板优于深板;与前人的水槽实验对比显示,相对没水深度与波陡影响结构的消波性能,且波陡造成的波浪破碎贡献了显著的波能消耗。该结论对板式防波堤的结构配置、优化设计有重要意义。     

Aquifer heterogeneity determination through the slope method

In arid‐region wadis, groundwater storage lies within shallow Quaternary alluvium deposits, which are connected with the present‐day hydrological cycle and, therefore, are replenished due to occasional runoff and flash flood occurrences. The groundwater resources are precious in these environments; therefore, their potentiality must be assessed with care in the best manner. The aquifer potentiality is calculated after the storativity and transmissivity parameter estimations, which require rather long‐duration field tests with restrictive assumptions in the theoretical model developments, such as the homogeneity and isotropy. It is the main purpose of this paper to expose the fundamentals of the slope‐matching procedure (SMP) and its application for short‐duration field tests in arid‐region aquifers. In this manner, the subsurface hydrogeological behaviours of the bored land pieces at and around the well locations are prospected in a detailed and refined manner. It is shown that in many cases the classical techniques are appropriate, inconvenient and inapplicable with conclusive reliable results and conclusions. The application of the SMP is presented for some aquifer tests from the central western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

在空间抽象中线状目标间拓扑关系的等价转换

拓扑关系在抽象过程中的等价转换是维护多尺度空间关系一致性的基础。本文以空间拓扑关系组合推理所描述的线状目标之间的拓扑关系为例,采用成分抽象的等价转换方法,研究了线之间拓扑关系等价转换的原则,并绘出了相应的等价转换图。     

海底双相随机介质声反射的SVM神经网络分类识别研究

考虑海底沉积介质为双相介质,为了更好地模拟实际海底底质的不均匀性,将随机介质理论引入双相介质理论。首先,通过基于随机-双相介质理论的高阶有限差分数值技术模拟计算海底底质分别为泥质砂、泥、泥质砾时的地震反射波信号。然后利用小波变换分别求取不同底质的一次反射波的包络作为其特征向量,最后利用基于粒子群智能算法优化的支持向量机神经网络对这些反射波信号进行分类识别。为了进一步考察所用方法的抗噪能力,对正演得到的海底底质反射波信号分别加入10%、30%、50%的高斯白噪音之后再进行分类,支持向量机仍然取得了较好的分类预测效果。基于上述正演模拟及分类识别方法的论证,提出了一套行之有效的微机软件模拟海底沉积物分类识别的一般化流程,这将有利于开展海底沉积物反射特征的进一步研究。     

中国和日本梅雨锋区（个例）结构的比较

通过１９８２年梅雨期的个例分析，研究和比较了中国和日本梅雨我的结构。分析表明：１．梅雨锋区系统对流层上部宽广的斜压区和对流层低层较狭窄的弱斜压区共同组成；２．在两个个例中，中国剖面上锋区均呈“椅”型结构。日本剖面上，６月呈均匀倾斜结构，７月略呈“椅型”，涡度场上中国剖面为相当正压结构，日本剖面为斜压结构；３．梅雨锋区系统可民是均匀斜压区在不均匀和加热情况下结构改变结果；４．中国大陆雨区高层大量潜热