渤海莱州湾地区晚更新世以来有孔虫特征反映的古环境变化

Controlled by climate changes, there were three large-scale transgressions and regressions around the Bohai Sea during the late Quaternary, which were accepted by most geologists. However, a big controversy still exists about the time when the transgressions occurred separately. In order to find out the process of the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary, the foraminifera assemblages from a new borehole Lz908 in the southern coast of the Laizhou Bay were studied, and then the transgressive strata were indentified. Combined with accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon 14C（AMS14C） and optically stimulated luminescence（OSL） ages, the occurrence time of these transgressions were re-determined. The result showed that three major large-scale transgressions occurred separately at the beginning of marine isotopic stage 7（MIS7）, the last interglacial period（MIS5） and the Holocene. In addition, a small-scale transgression occurred in the mid-MIS6, and the corresponding transgressive stratum was deposited. The transgressive deposition of MIS3 was also discovered in this study. However, the characteristics of the foraminifera indicated the environment during this period was colder than that in the MIS5. By comparison with the global sea-level changes, the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary can be consistent with the global climate changes.     

Uplift of symmetrical anchor plates by using grid-fixed reinforced reinforcement in cohesionless soil

Uplift response of symmetrical anchor plates with and without grid fixed reinforced （GFR） reinforcement was evaluated in model tests and numerical simulations by Plaxis. Many variations of reinforcement layers were used to reinforce the sandy soil over symmetrical anchor plates. In the current research, different factors such as relative density of sand, embedment ratios, and various GFR parameters including size, number of layers, and the proximity of the layer to the symmetrical anchor plate were investigated in a scale model. The failure mechanism and the associated rupture surface were observed and evaluated. GFR, a tied up system made of fiber reinforcement polymer （FRP） strips and end balls, was connected to the geosynthetic material and anchored into the soil. Test results showed that using GFR reinforcement significantly improved the uplift capacity of anchor plates. It was found that the inclusion of one layer of GFR, which rested directly on the top of the anchor plate, was more effective in enhancing the anchor capacity itself than other methods. It was found that by including GFR the uplift response was improved by 29%. Multi layers of GFR proved more effective in enhancing the uplift capacity than a single GFR reinforcement. This is due to the additional anchorage provided by the GFR at each level of reinforcement. In general, the results show that the uplift capacity of symmetrical anchor plates in loose and dense sand can be significantly increased by the inclusion of GFR. It was also observed that the inclusion of GFR reduced the requirement for a large L/D ratio to achieve the required uplift capacity. The laboratory and numerical analysis results are found to be in agreement in terms of breakout factor and failure mechanism pattern.     

Multilateralism in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore

This paper analyzes International Maritime Organization (IMO) involvement in maritime cooperation regime in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore through multilateralism. It begins by introducing the maritime cooperation regime prior to 2001, which was mainly trilateral in nature through Tripartite Technical Expert Group on the Safety of Navigation (TTEG). Although TTEG managed to increase the level of safety of navigation in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore through the implementation of the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) in 1981 and Mandatory Ship Reporting System (STRAITREP) in 1998, such cooperation was beset by financial strain and conflict of interests. Subsequently, there was a change in the cooperation regime after 9/11 incident. This paper identifies that the change was contributed by the IMO through a methodology called multilateralism. Three important principles were adopted by IMO in implementing multilateralism in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, namely generalized principles of conduct (respect for sovereignty and compliance with burden sharing principle under Article 43 of UNCLOS 1982), diffuse reciprocity, and indivisibility. This paper concludes that multilateralism by IMO has transformed trilateral cooperation into multilateral cooperation in the Straits of Malacca, combining state actors (littoral states and user states) and non-state actors (non-governmental organizations and international shipping industries).     

青海高原干热风的分布特征及其对气候变化的响应

基于青海省56个气象站1961—2010年50年气象资料对干热风的发生日数、空间分布及其变化特征分析表明:青海高原干热风主要分布在柴达木盆地且以小灶火为高发地,其次为东部农业区且以循化为高发地;近50年来干热风日数、强度均呈逐年上升趋势,2001—2010年年平均达到29站次,分别较20世纪60和70年代偏多17和ll站次;近年来平均最高气温的明显升高与相对湿度逐年减小是干热风日数增多的主要原因。     

Constructed peer groups and path dependence in international organizations: The case of the international climate change negotiations

International organizations sometimes institutionalize country groupings by specifying differentiated commitments that may, in turn, affect negotiation dynamics. Drawing on incentive-based and socialization arguments, we develop a “constructed peer group” hypothesis suggesting that by creating these groups those organizations may actually construct new lines of confrontation over and above the substance-based disagreements existing between countries. This generates a particular type of path dependence, rendering broad-based international agreements more difficult in the future.We analyze this question at the example of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's increasingly politicized split between Annex I and non-Annex I countries. Using a self-coded dataset of country oral statements during the negotiations between December 2007 and December 2009 we assess whether Annex I membership influences a country's stance toward other countries’ arguments, while controlling for country characteristics that may drive their preferences and the affiliation to Annex I. We find that the split between Annex I and non-Annex I has indeed influenced negotiation behavior and amplified the divide between developing and industrialized countries in the climate negotiations.     

Assessing changing vulnerability to dengue in northeastern Brazil using a water-associated disease index approach

Water management practices and access to safe water supplies have major implications for human health. While a range of assessments has been developed to assess water vulnerability, limited work has extended these concepts to health and wellbeing. Water-associated disease cycles are characterized by complex linkages between social and ecological determinants, thus conceptualizing vulnerability in the context of health offers a useful framework for analysis. This paper applies a water associated disease index (WADI) as a tool to deepen understanding of changing vulnerability to dengue, comparing conditions in 2000 and 2010 in Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil. Multi-dimensional data were integrated into indicators of exposure and susceptibility using the WADI approach, including water access, land cover, climate, and solid waste collection, and outputs were validated and visualized in map form. The findings illustrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability to dengue in the region, and highlight trends of seasonal and long-term changes. Highest vulnerability was observed in densely populated Recife and the surrounding coastal region in both time periods, with climate conditions creating seasonal trends in exposure to dengue. While more remote areas in the semi-arid Sertão showed low vulnerability overall, increases were observed in some areas between 2000 and 2010 due to land use intensification and growing population densities. These findings suggest that interventions should consider the dynamic nature of social and ecological factors that contribute to health outcomes and address current as well as future populations vulnerable to dengue transmission. This vulnerability mapping approach can be applied to other water-associated diseases impacted by global environmental change to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving interventions.     

基于历史数据的黄海浒苔爆发规模预测

依据黄海浒苔初始覆盖面积及最大覆盖面积的历史数据,选取温度、光强、降水3种对于浒苔生长扩散最重要的影响因子,本文提出并建立了基于BP神经网络确定转换系数R的浒苔覆盖面积预测模型,可在浒苔出现初期即实现对本年度浒苔最大覆盖面积的模拟预测,并通过历史数据进行验证。结果表明,所预测的浒苔最大爆发情况与真实情况相符,研究成果可为浒苔的应急准备工作争取更多的时间提供一定参考。     

非卫生垃圾填埋场渗滤液污染防治对策研究

针对非卫生垃圾填埋场环境污染问题,以某垃圾填埋场为例,通过 WHI UnSat Suite软件 HELP模块计算不同填埋条件下渗滤液渗漏量。利用GMS模拟了该垃圾场中心抽水条件下污染物迁移变化规律。结果表明,简单地表防渗条件下,渗滤液渗漏量为现状条件下的50%,增铺 HDPE土工膜后,渗漏量可减少99%。卫生填埋渗滤液仅为现状条件下的3.6＆#215;10-3倍。当抽水量为2000 m3/d时,Cl-浓度呈明显下降趋势,由84 mg/L降至80.1 mg/L。     

西安地区地裂缝带黄土动力特性试验研究

汾渭盆地是我国乃至世界上地裂缝最为发育,灾害最为严重的地区。考虑到地裂缝灾害对场地条件的影响,尤其是对场地土体的动力特性及动力响应的影响,本文在等压固结条件下,对西安地区地裂缝带黄土进行不同围压下的固结不排水(CU)动三轴试验,获取动力学参数,在此基础上分析了地裂缝带黄土动剪切模量随动剪应变变化特征曲线以及阻尼比随动剪应变变化特征曲线,并对所获得实验曲线进行回归拟合,进而建立了地裂缝带黄土的等效黏弹性动力本构模型,为进一步分析场地土体的动力响应奠定基础。