从强化弱化性质建立大理岩本构模型

强化和弱化性质在岩石变形过程中对立统一,分别或同时主导了应力及时间效应下形变特征,在上地壳温压条件下,弱化和强化的微观观机制主要是裂纹扩展和位错滑移及成核,本文在关于大理岩等应变率循环中载全过程的实验结果基础上,通过含有强化弱化函数的弹粘塑模型与无穷个弹簧连续夫并联的力学物理模型,建立和描述了大理岩的流变本构关系,根据该模型,可由等应变率的实验结果,预测出蠕变曲线。     

Optimal design of SDOF envelope systems for the responses of MDOF dynamic systems

The concept of envelope system for a given dynamic system is proposed in this paper which refers to those systems whose module of transfer function in the whole range of frequency domain is always bigger than that of a given system. This concept opens a new way to study the problems of robust design and modelling for dynamic systems. The condition that an envelope system has to satisfy is rendered as the determination of the positiveness of a real polynomial function and Sturm's sequence method is used to establish an easily implemented criterion for evaluating the positiveness of the polynomial in terms of its coefficients. The optimization for the envelope system is expressed as the minimization of the 2-norm of its transfer function and simplex method is employed to search for the optimal solution. Two dynamic systems are used to illustrate the optimal design for the envelope systems of some of their responses. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高应力状态下的黄土抗剪强度特性研究

土体抗剪强度包络线在一定的应力范围内可近似看做直线, 一般工程中直剪试验正应力和三轴试验围压常为0～400kPa, 试验可得出以黏聚力c和内摩擦角确定的强度。在黄土地区, 人工和自然边坡可超百米, 坡内应力自低到很高变化范围大, 对该类高边坡需考虑强度参数随应力状态的变化。本文先通过线弹性有限元模拟一黄土高边坡应力场。以潜在滑面上关键点的应力为固结应力进行三轴压缩试验(NCTC)。为了对比分析, 又进行了100kPa、200kPa、300kPa、400kPa围压下的三轴压缩试验(CTC)。结果表明, 考虑黄土高边坡应力状态时, 由总应力莫尔圆得到的强度包络线为曲线, 直线型莫尔-库伦强度准则不适用; 而有效应力莫尔圆的到的强度包络线可为直线, 其有效强度参数高于CTC试验。在-应力空间中, NCTC试验总强度包络线和有效包线均位于CTC试验强度包线之上, 抗剪强度高, 这同固结应力高且为偏压固结有关。     

测井曲线概率分布法识别四川盆地火山岩气水层

火山岩的矿物成分复杂,主要矿物有石英、正长石、斜长石、云母、角闪石、辉石和橄榄石.不同岩性的储层物性和孔隙结构类型各不相同,这给火山岩气水层判别造成很大困难.基于测井资料,首先采用中子-密度交会图的方法求取孔隙度,然后结合实验室的岩电参数以及测井的电阻率曲线,构建P1/2概率分布曲线,根据概率曲线的分布形态来识别火山岩...     

Testing a statistical curve‐fitting procedure for quantifying sediment populations within multi‐modal particle‐size distributions

This paper describes a series of tests designed to evaluate the capacity of a personal computer (PC) based statistical curve‐fitting program called MIX to quantify composite populations within multi‐modal particle‐size distributions. Three natural soil samples were analysed by a Coulter Multisizer, and their particle‐size distributions analysed using MIX software to identify the modes, standard deviations and proportions of their composite populations. The particle‐size distributions of the three natural soil samples were then numerically combined in equal proportions using a spreadsheet program to create synthetic particle‐size distributions of known populations. MIX was then tested on the synthetic particle‐size distributions to see if the modes and proportions it identified were similar to those modes and proportions known to characterize the synthetic particle‐size distributions. The main outcome is that MIX can very accurately describe the modal particle size and proportions of the major composite populations within a particle‐size distribution. However MIX has difficulty in identifying small populations (those contributing <10 per cent of a total particle‐size distribution), particularly when they are located in the central sections of particle‐size distributions, overlain by larger populations, or when positioned in the fine tails of distributions. Despite these minor shortcomings, MIX is a valuable tool for the examination and interpretation of particle‐size data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

辽宁沿海经济带工业环境效率分析

环境效率是生态效率的重要组成部分。基于环境效率对于指导区域经济与环境协调发展的重要意义,以重工业基地辽宁沿海经济带为例作环境效率研究,应用数据包络分析(DEA)和随机前沿分析(SFA)测算辽宁沿海经济带2001~2009年工业环境效率和产出弹性。在此基础上利用Tobit模型构建多元线性回归,分析工业环境效率的关键影响因素。结果表明:2001~2009年辽宁沿海经济带工业环境效率有大幅提高,但与理想状况仍有一定差距。其中大连的工业经济增长主要依靠劳动力推动,对环境成本的依赖正在减小,丹东、营口和葫芦岛3市的工业增长需要牺牲更多的环境成本。重工业化、资本密集化和高新技术化不利于工业环境效率提高,经济发展水平的提高则极大地促进了工业环境效率的提高。所有制结构、生产规模、外商投资和环境管理力度等因素因其作用的两面性,对工业环境效率无有效影响。     

长三角制造业转型升级的粘性机理及其实现路径——基于“微笑曲线”成因的视角

利用"微笑曲线"指导制造业的转型升级已经成了众多研究者的选择,且得出的结论基本都是制造业要转型升级就要向两端攀升,而对"微笑曲线"成因的研究则较为鲜见。用创新论、劳动论、市场论阐释了"微笑曲线"的成因,并以此作为突破影响长三角制造业转型升级粘性的基础理论,指出长三角制造业转型升级的路径为:遵循竞争优势理论,针对应该重点发展的制造业,根据劳动的复杂程度以及产品是否有标准接口对制造业进行分类,继续做好做优精细复杂的行业、转移出去粗放简单的行业,同时,还应该积极促进产业融合,发展新兴产业,在积累的基础上实现转型升级。     

基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,而且碳排放在大气中的积累会使全球气候不断变暖,因此经济增长与碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。传统的基于EKC曲线的经济计量学方法一般是对经济与排放历史数据的相关关系研究,不能很好地反映二者之间的动力学机制。为此本文在内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn基础上进行改进,首先从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在倒U曲线关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于0.5;接着将投入产出分析得到的反映技术进步下的能源强度代入模型,对中国未来经济增长路径进行了预测,同时得到了最优增长路径下的能源消费走势,进而通过对能源消费结构和不同能源品种的碳排放系数的预测和估计,以及对分品种能源碳排放的汇总计算得到了中国未来能源消费所产生的总的碳排放走势。结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,我国分别在2043年和2040年达到能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰。此外,本文对能源强度不同下降速率对能源消费高峰的影响进行模拟发现,当降速为4.5%~5%时,能源高峰将出现在2040年前,此时的人均GDP为10万元左右,与OECD国家的高峰时收入一致;而且分3种情景模拟了可再生能源替代政策对...     

曲线简化中节点重要性度量方法比较及垂比弦法的改进

在曲线简化过程中,一个最基础的问题是如何度量曲线上节点的重要性程度.该文简要回顾了现有的一些节点重要性度量方法,即角度度量法、面积度量法、弧比弦度量法和垂比弦度量法,指出其局限性.结合弧比弦度量法与垂比弦度量法的优点,提出了一种改进的垂比弦度量方法,并给出具体的评价方法.最后,根据曲线简化实验结果,发现相比于弧比弦度量法.改进后的垂比弦度量法选取的节点能较好地保持曲线的形状.