澜沧—耿马7.6级地震前中小地震活动信息熵和分维的研究

从信息论原理和分形几何学的观点出发,采用多种方法,分析研究1988年澜沧—耿马7.6级地震前地震活动的信息、信息熵和分维的变化特征表明,地震前1—2年内,中、小地震活动的信息熵、缺信量和容量维、信息维出现明显的低值变化过程,反映了地震前兆的减熵、降维特点,从一个侧面反映了大震前,一定区域内中、小地震活动的时空变化从无序向有序的演化过程。     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

Research of pattern dynamics parameters of crustal deformation field in seismogenic process

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测量平差模型的抗差最小二乘解及影响函数

抗差Ｍ估计是使用最广泛、计算较简明的抗差估计法。基于多维Ｍ估计原理，本文建立了经典测量平差函数模型的抗差解，并推导出相应的误差影响函数；为了使抗差估计适于不同类型以及不同先验精度的各类观测值的混合平差，将使用等价权原理构造抗差最小二乘解式。     

东亚地区天气吸引子特征的研究

利用东亚地区１１个有代表性测站（１９７９－１９８８年）连续１０年的５００ｈＰａ逐日位势高度时间序列，全面计算了它们的浑沌特征量。结果表明，各测站相应的关联维数都是分数；完整的Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数谱中，不仅都有正值、零和负值，而且Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数之和都小于零。因此，从整体来看，相应于东亚地区天气尺度的吸引子是由一个有限窨支撑起来的。东亚地区的天气吸引子所显示的系统平均Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｌｏｖ熵约为０     

川滇交界地区构造应力场及强震趋势的统计预测

本文对川滇地区中、强震震源机制解和中小地震平均节面解分析，指出川滇地区现今构造应力场在北西－北西西向压应力作用下，以水平剪切错动为主。同时，采用极值理论、最大信息熵、线性预测和灰色理论等方法综合分析，预测川滇地区未来强震的趋势。     

台风运动内在随机性的研究

本文用差分方法，对决定性的正压涡度方程实施了四组数值积分。根据模式输出量，求得了台风中心移速的一维序列和二维序列。计算了移速序列的关联维数和Ｋ熵。结果表明模式大气中台风中心的移动具有内在随机性。最后讨论了局域热源和基流对台风移动路径随机性和可预测性的影响。     

Molecular weight distribution,analytical and spectroscopic characterization of humic fractions sequentially isolated by organic solvents from a brown coal humic acid

A sequential fractionation procedure employing a series of selected mild organic solvents of different polarity has been applied for the isolation of chemically different organic fractions from a brown coal humic acid. Elemental composition, molecular weight distribution, i.r. and electron spin resonance analysis were carried out on the isolated humic fractions. They were characterized by: (a) a low polydispersity, (b) a decreasing aliphatic and increasing aromatic character along the series, (c) very different molecular weight which significantly correlated with E₄/E₆ ratios (particle aggregation and molecular association) and free radical concentrations (chemical and biochemical activity). Significant correlations were found between physico-chemical parameters of the isolated humic fractions, i.e. M_n, M_w, E₄/E₆ ratios, spins/g contents and the dielectric constants of the solvents used. This suggested the efficiency of the applied procedure in isolating chemically different organic fractions from the bulk, original humic acid.     

顾及起始数据误差影响时单位权中误差的估值

本文推导了在附有条件的间接平差和附有未知数的条件平差两种方法中,顾及起始数据误差影响时,计算单位权中误差估值(?)的公式,并以两个实例说明,平差时应该考虑起始数据误差对(?)的影响。