经济空间场与ESDA结合的公共卫生事件应急策略制定

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情引起了人们对国家公共卫生事件应对能力的广泛关注。基于波及效应梯度场提出了生产诱发梯度,进一步完善了经济空间场理论,并将其与探索性空间数据分析(exploratory spatial data analysis,ESDA)相结合,对医药制造业波及效应及空间布局进行了研究,制定了有效的公共卫生事件应急策略。经济空间场理论分析结果揭示了产业经济空间中医药制造业与各产业部门之间的波及效应,并由此得到了医药密切相关产业。同时,经济空间场理论与ESDA方法的结合能在区分中国大陆各省空间聚集类型的基础上,评估各省公共卫生事件的应对能力,从而为各省提出相应的应急策略和医药制造业发展建议。该方法综合考虑了产业波及效应和产业空间布局现状,不仅能够促进各省医药制造业的健康合理发展,也有助于增强各省突发公共卫生事件的应对能力。     

Mattig's relation and dynamical distance indicators

We discuss how the redshift (Mattig) method in the Friedmann cosmology relates to dynamical distance indicators based on Newton's gravity (Teerikorpi 2011). It belongs to the class of indicators where the relevant length inside the system is the distance itself (in this case the proper metric distance). As the Friedmann model has a Newtonian analogy, its use to infer distances has instructive similarities to classical dynamical distance indicators. In view of the theoretical exact linear distance‐velocity law, we emphasize that it is conceptually correct to derive the cosmological distance via the route: redshift (primarily observed) → space expansion velocity (not directly observed) → metric distance (physical length in “cm”). Important properties of the proper metric distance are summarized. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

方程误差系统的多新息辨识方法

多新息方法可以用于线性系统和非线性系统的自适应滤波、参数估计、自校正控制、自适应故障检测与诊断等.线性系统包括两种基本类型:方程误差类系统和输出误差类系统.本文将多新息辨识应用到方程误差滑动平均(EEMA)系统(即CARMA系统),研究多新息增广随机梯度算法和多新息增广最小二乘算法,应用到方程误差自回归滑动平均(EEARMA)系统(即CARARMA系统),提出基于分解的多新息广义增广随机梯度算法和基于分解的多新息广义增广最小二乘算法,以及基于滤波的多新息广义增广随机梯度算法和基于滤波的多新息广义增广最小二乘算法.     

On turbulence in the quasi-perpendicular bow shock

In this paper we propose to review the fundamental aspects of turbulence theories and their relevance to particle distribution functions observed by the cluster satellites in the quasi-perpendicular shock. The paper focusses on the hierarchical model describing the different levels of plasma turbulence; from the linear theory, through the quasi-linear remedy, to strong turbulence theories in the context of the earth's bow shock. We will discuss very briefly the validity of these approximations, and their relevance as far as satellite observations are concerned. In particular, we will discuss the development of non-Gaussian features in the ion distribution functions through the evaluation of higher order moments such as the kurtosis or flatness and the skewness. We have found that the profile of the kurtosis versus skewness tends to collapse to a parabolic line. This in turn allows us to draw analogies with neutral fluid turbulence where such a collapse of the kurtosis-skewness profile has been observed.     

Formation of one-dimensional waves for resonant flow in a channel

When a forcing moves in a shallow channel at a velocity near the phase velocity for linear long waves, energy cannot escape from the forcing at the linear group velocity and nonlinear effects become important in describing the resulting flow. This flow is termed resonant or transcritical. It has been found both experimentally and numerically that large amplitude upstream propagating waves are generated by the forcing. These waves are straight crested, even though the forcing is two-dimensional. It is shown that these upstream waves become straight crested due to geometrical effects aided by the presence of side walls. Using energy conservation, approximate values of the amplitude of the upstream waves are obtained which are compared with recent experimental and numerical results.     

Primordial black holes

Primordial black holes (PBHs) are a profound signature of primordial cos-mological structures and provide a theoretical tool to study nontrivial physics of the early Universe. The mechanisms of PBH formation are discussed and observational constraints on the PBH spectrum, or effects of PBH evaporation, are shown to re-strict a wide range of particle physics models, predicting an enhancement of the ul-traviolet part of the spectrum of density perturbations, early dust-like stages, first or-der phase transitions and stages of superheavy metastable particle dominance in the early Universe. The mechanism of closed wall contraction can lead, in the inflation-ary Universe, to a new approach to galaxy formation, involving primordial clouds of massive BHs created around the intermediate mass or supermassive BH and playing the role of galactic seeds.     

基于灰色理论的地下水埋深预测分析

根据灰色理论预测的基本原理,建立GM（1,1）预测模型,对河北省沧州市东辛店乡地下水位埋深进行实例预测,并对预测结果进行精度检验,分析灰色理论模型在地下水位埋深预测的可行性,结果表明：灰色GM（1,1）可以在数据较少的情况下进行短期预测,且预测精度高,计算简单;另外,通过预测结果和采取措施后的实际水位埋深的比较,可以清晰的看到所采取措施的效果。     

降雨对工程弃土堆积体稳定性的影响分析

基于重庆库区工程弃土在经历极端降雨条件下达到不同的饱和度,应用GEO-SLOPE软件对其进行计算,采用非饱和土强度理论对其结果进行分析,结果表明:库区内工程弃土天然含水量较小,一定量的前期降雨量有利于增强其稳定性,但是在极端降雨情况下,高强度的降雨使土体迅速达到饱和,低强度且长时间的降雨使土体经历较长的时间达到饱和,最后由于基质吸力丧失,稳定性降低,导致滑坡。     

基于半数值方法的限弯器剪弯刚度分析

柔性管缆限弯器存在接触非线性导致剪弯刚度分析困难。为此先基于悬臂梁方程建立剪弯刚度理论模型;然后构建考虑接触边界的锁合结构数值模型,得到其扭转刚度曲线;最后结合理论分析和数值计算求得考虑接触非线性的限弯器剪弯刚度曲线,并同传统的整体数值方法相比较,验证该半数值分析方法的有效性。对比发现基于半数值方法的限弯器剪弯计算效率远高于传统数值方法,其结果误差也满足工程需求;并且限弯器锁合结构处受接触边界影响有明显的非线性;限弯器子梁这一短梁结构基于Timoshenko梁理论计算的结果精度更高也更保守。相较于传统数值方法,该半数值方法用方程直接表达部分参数与剪弯刚度关系,并可以高效地分析限弯器剪弯刚度,使设计工作更加高效。     

双向地震荷载下崩塌堆积体盲数稳定可靠性分析

为了能考虑地震双向性和岩土体参数多种不确定性,提出了地震荷载下崩塌堆积体稳定可靠性分析方法,进一步研究水平和竖向地震荷载对崩塌堆积体的可靠性影响.运用极限平衡法和拟静力法分析了双向地震下崩塌堆积体的安全稳定性,采用响应面法和JC法建立崩塌堆积体的地震极限状态方程,然后,运用盲数理论对岩土体参数进行盲数化处理,进一步推导...