黄土高边坡稳定性影响因素分析 ——以宝鸡峡引水工程为例

黄土高边坡稳定性受多种因素影响,对高边坡稳定性影响因素进行敏感性分析非常必要。通过建立合理的计算模型,采用灰色关联度法,对影响宝鸡峡引水工程黄土高边坡稳定性的主要因素进行了分析。结果表明,土体的内摩擦角和黏聚力对其稳定性影响最大;采用正交实验分析可知,除土体的内摩擦角、黏聚力和坡高外,地震作用对黄土高边坡稳定性的影响也较大。以上分析表明,抗剪强度指标是影响黄土高边坡稳定的主要敏感性因素,提出了在黄土高边坡稳定性分析时应尽量使抗剪强度指标的选取准确、合理,同时也应考虑边坡高度和地震的影响,进而为黄土高边坡类的工程设计和运行管理提供重要参考。     

Discovering environmental data: metadatabases,network information resource tools and the GENIE system

Abstract

The existence of global computer networks in conjunction with various computer based tools offers the GIS community the possibility of identifying existing spatial data in a faster and more complete way. Using such tools could help the GIS community reduce the high costs of data collection. This paper focuses on the discovery of environmental data using metadatabases and network information resource tools and includes comments on some of the limitations of these computer based tools. The article will conclude by describing how the system developed by the GENIE project attempts to overcome some of these limitations.     

Hydrological model for urban catchments – analytical development using copulas and numerical solution

Abstract

A model based on analytical development and numerical solution is presented for estimating the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the runoff volume and peak discharge rate of urban floods using the joint probability density function (pdf) of rainfall volume and duration together with information about the catchment's physical characteristics. The joint pdf of rainfall event volume and duration is derived using the theory of copulas. Four families of Archimedean copulas are tested in order to select the most appropriate to reproduce the dependence structure of those variables. Frequency distributions of runoff event volume and peak discharge rate are obtained following the derived probability distribution theory, using the functional relationship given by the rainfall–runoff process. The model is tested in two urban catchments located in the cities of Chillán and Santiago, Chile. The results are compared with the outcomes of continuous simulation in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and with those from another analytical model that assumes storm event duration and volume to be statistically independent exponentially distributed variables.

Citation Zegpi, M. & Fernández, B. (2010) Hydrological model for urban catchments – analytical development using copulas and numerical solution. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1123–1136.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A new method is presented to generate stationary multi-site hydrological time series. The proposed method can handle flexible time-step length, and it can be applied to both continuous and intermittent input series. The algorithm is a departure from standard decomposition models and the Box-Jenkins approach. It relies instead on the recent advances in statistical science that deal with generation of correlated random variables with arbitrary statistical distribution functions. The proposed method has been tested on 11 historic weekly input series, of which the first seven contain flow data and the last four have precipitation data. The article contains an extensive review of the results.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilich, N., 2014. An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85–98.     

中国大陆东南缘地震接收函数与地壳和上地幔结构

从2008-2011年,分别在中国大陆东南缘沿海和内陆两条NE向剖面上进行了宽频地震观测,利用记录到的远震波形资料提取得到1446个远震P波接收函数,用H-κ叠加扫描和CCP偏移叠加方法研究了中国大陆东南缘地壳及上地幔过渡带的结构及其变化特征.结合固定台网25个台站的H-κ结果,获得中国大陆东南缘(福建地区)地壳厚度从内陆到沿海逐渐减薄的图像:地壳从闽西北山区的33 km减薄到厦门沿海一带的29 km以下,平均地壳厚度为31.3 km,具有陆地向洋壳过渡的特征;地壳泊松比从内陆到沿海显示出分带特征,闽中西部内陆地区小于0.26,沿海地带高于0.26,且在断裂带的交汇区域表现为相对异常高值.地壳上地幔顶部(0~200 km)的CCP偏移叠加成像结果显示闽江断裂等NW向断裂深切Moho界面,在断裂两侧Moho面急剧抬升或下沉,产状改变,这些特征向内陆地区逐渐变得不明显.闽江等NW向断裂对研究区地壳厚度、地震等有明显控制作用.上地幔尺度(300~700 km)的CCP偏移叠加成像,未见410 km和660 km速度间断面突变和起伏异常,其绝对深度略大于IASP91模型的,上地幔转换带厚度正常(250±5 km),表明中国大陆东南缘上地幔转换带未受欧亚与菲律宾板块碰撞的明显影响,推断中国大陆东南缘及台湾海峡下方不存在俯冲板块,或俯冲前缘未扰动到410 km的深度.     

The Spatial Restructuring of Population in Metropolitan Beijing: Toward Polycentricity in the Post-Reform ERA

Based on data from the third (1982), fourth (1990), and fifth (2000) Population Census of China, this research examines the changing patterns of population distribution in the Beijing metropolitan area in the post-reform era. In the mid-1980s, China launched a series of urban land use reforms aimed toward achieving a market economy. A direct impact of these reforms in Beijing was the restructuring of land uses, evidenced by the relocation of central-city residents to the suburbs to make room for commercial development. This residential suburbanization trend emerged during the 1980s and accelerated in the 1990s. Population change rates varied significantly across subdistricts, and variation was much greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s, indicating an increasingly diverse set of growth trajectories across metropolitan Beijing over time. Various population density functions are tested. The population density pattern is best characterized by a monocentric model in 1982, a dual-centered model in 1990, and a seven-centered model in 2000. This transition in Beijing's urban form toward polycentricity is similar to trends in most Western cities.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment using three bivariate models considering the new topo-hydrological factor: HAND

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to assess the relative contribution of the state-of-the-art topo-hydrological factor, known as height above the nearest drainage (HAND), to landslide susceptibility modellling using three novel statistical models: weights-of-evidence (WofE), index of entropy and certainty factor. In total, 12 landslide conditioning factors that affect the landslide incidence were used as input to the models in the Ziarat Watershed, Golestan Province, Iran. Landslide inventory was randomly divided into a ratio of 70:30 for training and validating the results of the models. The optimum combination of conditioning factors was identified using the principal components analysis (PCA) method. The results demonstrated that HAND is the defining factor among hydrological and topographical factors in the study area. Additionally, the WofE model had the highest prediction capability (AUPRC = 74.31%). Therefore, HAND was found to be a promising factor for landslide susceptibility mapping.     

土壤饱和导水率空间预测的不确定性分析

当土壤转换函数应用于土壤水力性质估计时,对于预测值的不确定性往往容易被忽视。为了有针对性地提出减少这种不确定性的方法和措施,提高土壤转换函数的实际应用能力,以两种现有的土壤转换函数(Vereecken和HYPRES模型)为例,将其应用于山东省平度市土壤饱和导水率的空间预测,并利用拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)方法对预测结果的不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,饱和导水率空间预测的不确定性主要来源于土壤基本性质的空间插值误差和土壤转换函数自身的预测误差。当Vereecken模型应用于饱和导水率空间预测时,预测结果的不确定性主要由土壤基本性质空间插值误差所决定,土壤转换函数预测误差的影响较小,而HYPRES模型则是受二者的双重影响。     

不同覆盖物抑制铀尾矿氡析出的效果

对5种不同覆盖物（红土、砂、废石、砂与红土混合物、废石与红土混合物）降低铀尾矿氡析出的效果进行了现场实验研究。结果表明,不同覆盖物的效果存在较大差异,在相同覆盖厚度条件下,氡析出率降低系数是红土〉红土与废石混合物〉红土与砂混合物〉废石〉砂。表面氡析出率随覆盖物厚度增大而减小,氡析出率降低系数的对数与覆盖厚度成正比,所得到的各种覆盖物的拟合线性方程可用来评价覆盖效果。建立了各种覆盖物覆盖厚度估算的经验公式。综合考虑降氡效果、经济成本、生态环境效应,废石与红土混合物是该地区铀尾矿库最佳覆盖物。     

用经验模型判断能力验证统计分析结果的合理性

能力验证是检测实验室识别与同行差异的一种途径,但中国合格评定国家认可委员会( CNAS)在组织能力验证时发现由于种种原因,有些实验室并不能秉承诚信的原则参加能力验证活动,导致统计分析结果“失真”.如何甄别这种情况,确保所有参加CNAS能力验证活动的实验室都获得公平的评价,这是CNAS亟待解决的问题.本文在用国内文献数据对经验模型进行修正的基础上,提出用上报数据目标标准偏差(或稳健标准偏差,sR)与基于经验模型的计算值之比(H值)是否小于0.5作为判据来审核上报数据统计分析结果的合理性.对13套能力验证数据分析表明:其中10套上报数据sR正常,3套数据存在问题.当目标标准偏差偏小,H＜0.5时,建议采用同样是稳健统计方法的迭代法代替四分位法来计算目标标准偏差(sR),或用经验模型计算结果代替实验值计算Z值.通过验证表明,借助Horwitz经验模型可以判断能力验证数据统计分析结果的合理性,并能有效地识别并防止由于某种原因导致对能力验证结果评价失效的情况.