Improving the prediction of extreme FPSO hawser tension,using another highly correlated hawser tension with a longer time record

The floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport. Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during the FPSO offloading operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during certain sea conditions, posing an operational risk. In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) software ANSYS AQWA has been employed to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions.In some practical situations, it would be useful to improve the accuracy of some statistical predictions based on a certain stochastic random process, given another synchronous highly correlated stochastic process that has been measured for a longer time, than the process of interest. In this paper, the issue of improving extreme value prediction has been addressed. In other words, an efficient transfer of information is necessary between two synchronous, highly correlated stochastic processes. Two such highly correlated FPSO hawser tension processes were simulated in order to test the efficiency of the proposed technique.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Normally Consolidated Clays

For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations.     

基于VMD和WinLSP相结合的GNSS-R海平面高度估测模型

全球导航卫星系统反射（Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry,GNSS-R）技术是一种新兴的监测海平面高度变化的技术。本文依据GNSS-R技术中的信噪比分析法的原理,通过分析其分离趋势项和提取振荡频率的过程,建立了新的估测模型以提高反演精度。针对传统模型存在的信号分离不佳的问题,本文提出使用变分模态分解（Variational Mode Decomposition,VMD）算法替换传统的最小二乘拟合法（Least Squares Fitting, LSF）进行趋势项分量的分离。在此基础上,本文引入基于凯塞窗函数改进的LSP（Lomb-Scargle Periodogram）频谱分析法（记为WinLSP）来减弱因频谱泄露带来的反演误差。在瑞典翁萨拉的GTGU站和美国阿拉斯加州的SC02站开展的海平面高度反演实验结果表明,本文建立的估测模型相比于传统模型具有更高的反演精度。基于VMD+WinLSP估测模型得到的GTGU站反演结果的均方根误差（RMSE）、相关系数和反演点数分别为4.70 cm、0.98和5 647。与传统的LSF+LSP估测模型相比,反演精度和GNSS数据利用率分别提高了约29.7%和15.0%。SC02站的RMSE、相关系数和反演点数分别为14.34 cm、0.99和1 785,反演精度和GNSS数据利用率分别提高了约12.3%和9.4%。     

基于Hv方法的三轴液压振动系统频响函数估计的研究

三轴液压振动系统是实验室内模拟振动环境的主要设备,其主要功能是精确地复现给定的功率谱和时间历程。振动控制技术是实现这一目标的关键技术,它以频响函数估计为基础。频响函数估计的精度影响控制过程的快速性和稳定性。本文对几种典型的频响函数估计方法进行了分析,针对传统方法精度低且受到矩阵病态条件约束等缺点,应用特征分析与摄动理论构造了一种多入多出的Hv方法,并且应用三轴液压振动系统的实测数据对其进行了检验。结果表明该方法是适用的。     

海洋沉积地质过程模拟:性质与问题及前景

探讨了海洋沉积地质数值模拟的功能问题.地球科学研究以正演方法(以数值模拟为代表)和反演方法(以地层记录分析为代表)的结合为特征.数值模拟作为一种重要的研究工具,具有获得过程和机理分析结果、形成工作假说、指导现场观测和采样的作用.与此同时,在正反演交融中模型本身也得到了提高和完善.在海洋沉积地质领域,数值模拟在沉积物输运...     

红树林孢粉-气候因子转换函数恢复古环境的可行性初探

红树林是一种对温、盐、流及土质等均具严格要求的植被类型，对定量化研究热带，亚热带沿海地区古环境具有重要的意义，通过对广西英罗湾、北海洞尾的红树林表土中孢粉的研究，初步建立起红树林植物孢粉-气候因子的转换函数，将之运用到位于英罗湾的典型钻孔D325的孢粉资料中，获得该孔所记录的年平均温度，最高温度，最低温度，年降雨量以及最高盐度等气候环境指标的变化，同时，与由孢粉分析获得的D325孔记录的全新世以来的7个气候变化阶段相对比，发现具有很好的对应关系，说明利用对环境反映灵敏的红树林孢粉为信息源，建立与环境气候因子的关系，定量恢复环境具可行性。     

Shoreline variability via empirical orthogonal function analysis: Part I temporal and spatial characteristics

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) or principal components were used to extract the significant modes of shoreline variability from several data sets collected at three very different locations. Although EOFs have proven to be a valuable tool in the analysis of nearshore data, most applications have focused on the ability of the technique to describe cross-shore or profile variability. Here however, EOFs were used to help identify the dominant modes of longshore shoreline variability at Duck, North Carolina, the Gold Coast, Australia, and at several locations within the Columbia River Littoral Cell in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. In part one of this analysis, characteristic patterns of shoreline variability identified by the EOF analysis are described in detail. At each site, the dominant modes consisting of the first four eigenfunctions were found to describe nearly 95% of the total shoreline variability. At both Duck and the Gold Coast, several interesting longshore periodic features suggestive of sand waves were identified, while boundary effects related to natural headlands and navigational structures/entrances dominated the Pacific Northwest data sets.     

SHADOWS合成孔径声纳系统及性能测试

与传统的侧扫声纳相比,合成孔径声纳系统具有全覆盖无遗漏扫测,测量范围大、速度快,图像分辨率高等优点。本文介绍我国引进第一套SHADOWS合成孔径声纳系统的技术性能,分析SHADOWS合成孔径声纳系统性能测试情况及实际测量中的应用价值,提出了存在的问题及其对策。