A comprehensive evaluation of tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province, China

Qinghai Province is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Scientific evaluation of the suitability of Qinghai’s climate for tourism can contribute to overcoming obstacles posed by climate on sustainable tourism development in Qinghai Province, including disparities between the low and high seasons, high altitude health concerns, and weather events. A tourism climate suitability evaluation model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is constructed (Tourism Climate Suitability Index, or TCSI), and tourism climate suitability is comprehensively evaluated for Qinghai Province from climate data from 1960 to 2009. Results show that: (I) There is clear distributional characteristics of spatial-temporal variability of TCSI values in Qinghai Province. (II) Tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province has significant seasonal and regional differences. The year is divided into a very suitable period (July and August), suitable tourism periods (from April and October), less suitable periods (From Nov to Mar). June to August is the most suitable tourism period in Qinghai. Qinghai Province is divided into five levels of tourism climate suitability: most suitable regions, very suitable regions, suitable regions, less suitable regions, and unsuitable region. (III) The key factor which influences regional differences in tourism climatic suitability is atmospheric oxygen. And the key factors which chiefly influence seasonal differences of tourism climate suitability are temperature and humidity, the wind chill factor, and barrier weather.     

Galileo系统及其在中国的应用

较详细地介绍了Galileo系统的全面体系结构、频率设计、服务内容及其广泛的应用范围，指出了它与GPS系统相比的优点，并对开发和增强Galileo系统在我国多层次、全方位的应用提出了建议。     

青海旅游资源信息系统设计

应用系统以ArcInfo和ArcView为开发平台 ,以软件工程理论为指导依据 ,应用GIS技术、数据库技术和模块设计技术为基本的技术支持 ,设计了青海旅游信息系统的结构及数据库 ,使用Avenue语言进行二次开发 ,并利用VisualBasic和Flash进行了界面开发及模块实现。该系统可实现青海旅游信息专题图浏览 ,景点查询、定位 ,多媒体方式介绍 ,以及路线选择功能 ,能为游客提供图、文、声并貌的旅游向导 ,实现了青海旅游资源的计算机化宣传 ,也可为GIS技术在青海盐湖资源、水力资源信息技术的应用提供借鉴     

Glacial change in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), central high Himalayas since 1976

Glaciers are one of the most important land covers in alpine regions and especially sensitive to global climate change. Remote sensing has proved to be the best method of investigating the extent of glacial variations in remote mountainous areas. Using Landsat thematic mapping (TM) and multi-spectral-scanner (MSS) images from Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP), central high Himalayas for 1976, 1988 and 2006, we derived glacial extent for these three periods. A combination of object-oriented image interpretation methods, expert knowledge rules and field surveys were employed. Results showed that (1) the glacial area in 2006 was 2710.17 ± 0.011 km2 (about 7.41% of the whole study area), and located mainly to the south and between 4700 m to 6800 m above sea level; (2) from 1976 to 2006, glaciers reduced by 501.91 ± 0.035 km2 and glacial lakes expanded by 36.88 ± 0.035 km2; the rate of glacier retreat was higher in sub-basins on the southern slopes (16.79%) of the Himalayas than on the northern slopes (14.40%); most glaciers retreated, and mainly occurred at an elevation of 4700–6400 m, and the estimated upper limit of the retreat zone is between 6600 m and 6700 m; (3) increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the study period are the key factors driving retreat.     

Leaf area index retrieval based on canopy reflectance and vegetation index in eastern China

The aim of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of using Landsat TM data to retrieve leaf area index (LAI). To get a LAI retrieval model based ground reflectance and vegetation index, detailed field data were collected in the study area of eastern China, dominated by bamboo, tea plant and greengage. Plant canopy reflectance of Landsat TM wavelength bands has been inversed using software of 6S. LAI is an important ecological parameter. In this paper, atmospheric corrected Landsat TM imagery was utilized to calculate different vegetation indices (VI), such as simple ratio vegetation index (SR), shortwave infrared modified simple ratio (MSR), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Data of 53 samples of LAI were measured by LAI-2000 (LI-COR) in the study area. LAI was modeled based on different reflectances of bands and different vegetation indices from Landsat TM and LAI samples data. There are certainly correlations between LAI and the reflectance of Tm3, TM4, TM5 and TM7. The best model through analyzing the results is LAI = 1.2097*MSR + 0.4741 using the method of regression analysis. The result shows that the correlation coefficient R2 is 0.5157, and average accuracy is 85.75%. However, whether the model of this paper is suitable for application in subtropics needs to be verified in the future.     

Comparisons and connections between mean field dynamo theory and accretion disc theory

The origin of large scale magnetic fields in astrophysical rotators, and the conversion of gravitational energy into radiation near stars and compact objects via accretion have been subjects of active research for a half century. Magnetohydrodynamic turbulence makes both problems highly nonlinear, so both subjects have benefitted from numerical simulations.However, understanding the key principles and practical modeling of observations warrants testable semi‐analytic mean field theories that distill the essential physics. Mean field dynamo (MFD) theory and alpha‐viscosity accretion disc theory exemplify this pursuit. That the latter is a mean field theory is not always made explicit but the combination of turbulence and global symmetry imply such. The more commonly explicit presentation of assumptions in 20th century textbook MFDT has exposed it to arguably more widespread criticism than incurred by 20th century alpha‐accretion theory despite complementary weaknesses. In the 21st century however, MFDT has experienced a breakthrough with a dynamical saturation theory that consistently agrees with simulations. Such has not yet occurred in accretion disc theory, though progress is emerging. Ironically however, for accretion engines, MFDT and accretion theory are presently two artificially uncoupled pieces of what should be a single coupled theory. Large scale fields and accretion flows are dynamically intertwined because large scale fields likely play a key role in angular momentum transport. I discuss and synthesize aspects of recent progress in MFDT and accretion disc theory to suggest why the two likely conspire in a unified theory (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

像元信息分解和决策树相结合的影像分类方法

该文提出了一种基于像元信息分解和决策树相结合的遥感自动分类方法。选择广州市番禺区作为研究区。用像元信息分解和多变量决策树法把TM影像分为水体、植被、水泥地、土壤4种基本组分,分离成4类树枝;分别以4种基本地物组分作为分类掩膜,采用BP神经网络分类、形状指数提取、光谱特征提取等复合方法进行分枝,并开展野外遥感调查,以提高和验证分类精度。结果表明：该方法保证了分枝时地物的纯洁度,有效地避免了地物提取时多余信息的干扰和影响,提高了分类精度。结合实地调查数据与最大似然分类算法进行对比实验,表明该模型比最大似然总体分类精度高16％。     

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地面不同垄沟形式对径流调控机制的研究

在干旱缺水、水土流失严重的黄土高原地区,地面垄沟是控制侵蚀、保持水分的有效措施。而不同垄沟形式将直接影响沟中径流量和土壤水分状况。本文设计了两种不同垄上覆盖材料和三种不同垄沟比的6组试验处理,通过2002与2003年降水季节的连续田间试验观测。结果表明:覆膜垄沟(MR)的临界产流降雨量低于不覆膜垄沟(ER),约为不覆膜垄沟(ER)的10%,两种垄沟的临界产流降雨量分别为0.4mm、4.6mm。覆膜垄沟(MR)的径流效率远高于不覆膜垄沟(ER),覆膜垄沟(MR)与土垄的平均径流效率分别在45%~70%与5%~6%之间变化。     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.