关于经验性地震预报问题的思考

从科学认识活动的发展历程，特别是从科学观测性质两个方面论证了经验性预报存在的必然性和必要性，同时指出，只有将第三类观测提升为第二类观测才能真正实现物理预报。     

论分段格值计算重力单程观测法公式

国产石英弹簧大测程重力仪分段标定的格值相对变化＞1／1400时，文中总结分段格值计算单程观测（混合零点位移改正、固体潮改正、静掉格改正）的公式。     

Strong motion envelope modelling of the source of the Chamoli earthquake of March 28, 1999 in the Garhwal Himalaya, India

Garhwal Himalaya has been rocked by two major earthquakes in the span of just eight years, viz. Uttarkashi earthquake of 20th Oct, 1991 and Chamoli earthquake of 28th March, 1999. Chamoli earthquake of March 28, 1999 was recorded at 11 different stations of a strong motion array installed in the epicentral region. The maximum peak ground acceleration (353 cm/s²) was recorded at an accelerograph located at Gopeshwar. The data from eleven stations has been used for comparison with the simulated acceleration envelopes due to a model of the rupture responsible for this earthquake. For simulation of acceleration envelope the method of Midorikawa (1993) has been modified for its applicability to Himalayan region. This method has earlier been used by Joshi and Patel (1997) and Joshi (1999) for the studyof Uttarkashi earthquake of 20th Oct, 1991. The same method has been used for study of Chamoli earthquake. Layered earth crust has been introduced in place of homogeneous one in this method. The model of rupture is placed at a depth of 12 km below the Munsiari thrust for modelling Chamoli earthquake. Peak ground acceleration was calculated from simulated acceleration envelope using layered as well as homogeneous earth crust. For the rupture placed in a layered crust model peak ground acceleration of order 312 cm/s² was simulated at Gopeshwar which is quite close to actually recorded value. The comparison of peak ground acceleration values in terms of root mean square error at eleven stations suggests that the root mean square error is reduced by inclusion of a layered earth crust in place of homogeneous earth crust.     

荆沙长江公路大桥主桥墩基地震液化研究

本文利用经验判别法和试验－分析法对荆沙长江公路大桥主桥墩基场地的地震液化进行了综合判别。对现在使用的有关地震液化判别“规范”的应用范围进行了拓展，虽然是初次尝试，但作者认为效果良好。     

Semi-empirical estimation of ground motion using observed records at a site in Shikoku, Japan

A semi-empirical approach using fore- or after-shockrecords as Green's functions is applicable to thesimulation of strong ground motion, however suchrecords are obviously not available for predictionpurposes. Thus we have predicted ground motion fora hypothetical large earthquake from other minorevents by adopting a distance correction based ongeometrical spreading. Another difficulty inprediction is fault modeling. Surface traces weresimplified as fault models 27, 46, 55, and 77 km inlength. Further, the actual fault rupture may beinhomogeneous, so an asperity distribution isassumed. This asperity model assumes thatdislocation and stress drop are double than theaverage values. Although, the near field term isneglected in our simulation, no significantdifference was seen in the motions estimated byindividual models for periods up to 2.0 seconds. This indicates that the dependence of source size issmall for strong motion, perhaps as a result of therandom summation of high-frequency phases.     

丽江7.0级地震近场加速度的经验Green函数合成

根据已有的研究成果，建立了丽江主震的地震破裂模型。利用在两个场点上记录到的丽江地震最大余震M6．0的加速度，用经验Green函数法合成了主震在这两个场点上的加速度时程，计算了相应的反应谱，分析了地震破裂过程对震害的影响，发现两个场点的合成结果与地震所造成的宏观破坏现象是一致的。     

应用重力资源估算东海冲绳海槽地壳厚度

利用东海地区的重力资源，并参考在该地区进行的地震测深结果，应用线性公式估算了研究区的地壳厚度，分析了研究区地壳结构特征，根据与中国东部地球物理场、地壳结构的对比，指出东海大陆架地区应是中国大陆的自然延伸，对冲绳海槽的地壳性质进行了探讨，指出冲绳海槽应该为东海大陆架的自然终结。     

A formula for gravimetric terrain corrections using powers of topographic height

Journal of Geodesy - ?The application of Stokes' formula to create geoid undulations requires no masses outside the geoid. However, due to the existence of the topography, terrain...     

Anomaly feature of seasonal frozen soil variations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The seasonal frozen soil on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has strong response to climate change, and its freezing-thawing process also affects East Asia climate. In this paper, the freezing soil maximum depth of 46 stations covering 1961–1999 on the plateau is analyzed by rotated experience orthogonal function (REOF). The results show that there are four main frozen anomaly regions on the plateau, i.e., the northeastern, southeastern and southern parts of the plateau and Qaidam Basin. The freezing soil depths of the annual anomaly regions in the above representative stations show that there are different changing trends. The main trend, except for the Qaidam Basin, has been decreasing since the 1980s, a sign of the climate warming. Compared with the 1980s, on the average, the maximum soil depth decreased by about 0.02 m, 0.05 m and 0.14 m in the northeastern, southeastern and southern parts of the plateau, but increased by about 0.57 m in the Qaidam Basin during the 1990s. It means there are different responses to climate system in the above areas. The spectrum analysis reveals different change cycles: in higher frequency there is an about 2-year long cycle in Qaidam Basin and southern part of the plateau in the four representative areas whereas in lower frequency there is an about 14-year long cycle in all the four representative areas due to the combined influence of different soil textures and solutes in four areas.     

松南地区浅部储层测井参数研究

本文根据常规测井响应特征，利用岩石化验分析资料，采用一元—多元线性回归的数理统计方法，分析储集层参数与测井响应的对应关系，建立起地区性的经验参数和经验公式，形成测井分析的最基本方法。完成测井识别油气、评价储层的任务中收到了令人满意的效果