WRF大气模式与台风经验模型在超强台风“山竹”过程重构中的比较分析

通过中尺度气象研究与预报模式WRF（weather research and forecasting）和两种台风经验模型重构了2018年影响我国珠江口地区的超强台风“山竹”过程中的气压和风矢量场,在台风最佳路径数据的基础上开展了方法间的比较,并与香港、澳门和深圳三个国际机场的实测数据进行了对比分析,验证了三种模拟方案模拟台风“山竹”的可靠性。利用非结构网格半隐式跨尺度海洋模式SCHISM （semi-implicit cross-scale hydroscience integrated system model）,将三种模拟气压和风场作为驱动场输入风暴潮模式中进行增水模拟试验,比较了它们在赤湾、三灶、横门和黄埔四个测站风暴潮增水中各自的效果,并进一步验证了WRF模式和两种经验模型模拟台风“山竹”的有效性。综合来看, WRF大气模式对气压、风速、风向及风暴增水模拟效果最佳,如果进一步优化该模式的各种参数化方案,可能还能提高其精度。如果不具备使用WRF大气模式的条件,台风经验1模型也是一个完全可以接受的、简单快捷的方案。     

基于支持向量回归的海面高度统计预报方法研究

本文提出一种基于支持向量回归的统计预报方法,通过经验正交分解对原始数据矩阵进行时空分解,提取出空间模态和时间系数。由于海面高度变化具有非线性、大惯性的特点,对时间系数进行小波分析,能有效滤除其中的高频信号,得到表征海面高度变化的低频信号。利用支持向量回归方法对小波分解后的低频信号构建预报模型。最后,进行小波重构,还原时间序列长度,实现未来7天的海面高度预报。通过黑潮附近海域的海面高度预报结果验证,该预报方法的预报效果优于整合滑动平均自回归预报方法。本文通过机器学习的算法实现了海面高度的预报,为海洋预报方法提供了新的思路。     

基于EMD-LSTM模型半潜平台运动极短期预报

半潜平台在复杂海洋环境作用下,会发生不规则的六自由度运动响应。这种平台运动的不规则性和随机性对平台作业、栈桥控制以及直升机起落等造成极大的不确定和未知风险。因此,在极短期内准确快速预报平台运动响应对深海浮式平台作业和设备安全具有重要的实际意义。然而目前针对浮式平台运动响应的计算主要是基于势流理论,对确定波浪激励下的平台一阶运动和二阶慢漂运动进行求解,计算的时效性不能满足实际需求。此外,还需要对入射波浪时历进行准确预报,导致平台运动响应准确计算更加困难。针对上述难题,提出了基于EMD-LSTM模型进行平台运动极短期预报的方法。该方法以半潜平台模型试验数据为研究对象,首先对平台运动响应的时间序列进行预处理,接着采用经验模态分解算法(EMD)将时间序列分解成相对平稳的分量,再利用长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络可以处理复杂非线性长时间序列的优点,对时间序列进行训练预测,最后进行仿真,同时与传统LSTM模型与EMD-BP模型进行对比,仿真结果表明基于EMD-LSTM模型的平台极短期预报方法精度较高,该方法是可行的,具有工程应用的实际意义。     

A rapid assessment method for calculating the drag coefficient in wave attenuation by vegetation

Vegetation in wetlands is a large-scale nature-based resource that can provide multiple benefits to human beings and the environment,such as wave attenuation in coastal zones.Traditionally,there are two main calibration approaches to calculate the attenuation of wave driven by vegetation.The first method is a straightforward one based on the exponential attenuation of wave height in the direction of wave transmission,which,however,overlooks the crucial drag coefficient (C_D).The other method is in accordance with more complicate equations for predicting the damping factor,which is regarded as a function of C_D.In this study,a new relation,combining these above two conventional approaches,is proposed to predict the C_D in an operative approach.Results show that values yielded by the new assessment method perform a strong linear relationship with a collection of historical observations,with a promising R~2 value of 0.90.Besides,the linear regression derives a new predictive equation for the bulk drag coefficient.Additionally,a calibrated value of 4 for the empirical plant drag coefficient(C_P) is revealed.Overall,this new equation,with the superiority of the convenient exponential regression,is expected to be a rapid assessment method for calculating wave attenuation by vegetation and predicting the drag coefficient.     

Empirical‐based out‐of‐plane URM infill wall model accounting for the interaction with in‐plane demand

The role of masonry infills in the seismic behavior of reinforced concrete buildings has been widely studied in terms of their strength and stiffness contribution in the in‐plane (IP) direction, while fewer studies have been carried out on their response and modeling in the out‐of‐plane (OOP) direction. In this paper, the state of the art in code and literature provisions regarding infills' OOP capacity and seismic demand is presented, together with a review of the experimental tests that have been carried out to investigate infills' OOP behavior and the effects of IP‐OOP interaction. This review aims to collect an experimental database that is used to evaluate the effectiveness of literature and code provisions and to propose a semiempirical approach both for predicting infills' OOP strength, stiffness, and displacement capacity and for modeling the effects of IP displacement demand on OOP behavior and vice versa. Then, the state of the art on modeling of infills' OOP behavior and IP‐OOP interaction is presented together with a new macro model based on the proposed formulations and conceived to represent the IP and OOP behavior by taking into account the mutual interaction effects. Finally, the proposed model is used for an example application on two case‐study buildings, showing the effects of taking into account or neglecting the IP‐OOP interaction phenomena.     

Performance of methods for estimating the time of concentration in a watershed of a tropical region

The time of concentration (T_c) is a fundamental parameter in the design of hydrological projects for watersheds. In this study a graphical methodology is described for estimating T_c in a watershed, and this is applied to 17 rainfall–runoff events from a rural watershed located near the capital city of Mato Grosso do Sul State, in the Brazilian Cerrado. The T_c values obtained through the graphical method were compared to T_c values estimated using 20 equations from various references. The equations were selected by considering those that were not developed using data for urban watersheds, and the results of the graphical method were compared to those derived by applying the equations to sub-basin data. The graphical method was reliable in determining T_c, and Ventura’s equation was found to present the best performance for a rural watershed in a tropical climate region.     

桥梁GNSS-RTK变形监测数据的多滤波联合去噪处理

针对桥梁GNSS-RTK变形监测中多路径效应和随机噪声的影响,提出了一种基于Chebyshev滤波和自适应噪声的完备集合经验模态分解（CEEMDAN）,以及小波阈值（WT）降噪技术的多滤波联合降噪方法。该方法首先对监测信号实施Chebyshev滤波抑制多路径效应;然后进行CEEMDAN分解,基于自相关性分析,对噪声IMF分量进行WT降噪去除随机噪声。本文以天津海河大桥GNSS-RTK变形监测作为试验,对监测数据进行多滤波降噪处理。结果表明：本文所提的多滤波降噪方法能有效抑制多路径效应和随机噪声,GNSS-RTK与多滤波降噪相结合的方法能够准确识别桥梁真实动态位移,为桥梁GNSS-RTK监测数据降噪处理提供了一种良好的途径。     

两种GPT系列对流层经验模型精度分析

针对很多测站不能提供实测气象数据的情况,本文对两种高精度的GPT系列经验模型进行验证。通过对两种模型获得的经验气象数据及对计算可降水汽非常重要的ZHD的精度进行分析,得出如下结论:GPT2w模型的精度要高于GPT2模型,且在无实测气象数据的情况下可以使用GPT2w模型来进行GNSS水汽反演。     

人地系统远程耦合的研究进展与展望

在越发紧密关联的全球化世界中,如何实现可持续发展日益需要跨系统思维和超区域政策。这首先要求致力于可持续发展研究的学科要提升自身对跨区域资源环境问题的洞察力,因此就有必要推动地理学传统研究框架的适应性创新和变革。远程耦合作为聚焦于“远距离人类与自然耦合系统之间社会经济与环境相互作用”的理论框架,有极大的潜力和优势来促进这一理论创新进程。为了缩小国内外在远程耦合领域的研究差距,论文基于文献研究和笔者对远程耦合框架的理解,从远程耦合的理论建构、经验证据、重点研究领域和研究方法4个方面介绍了该理论框架及其应用进展,并提出3个方面的展望来激发新的研究。综述表明,由于远距离人类活动不断增长以及大尺度自然过程与人类活动的相互作用,在远程连接、全球化和城市化维度上均存在大量远程耦合的经验证据;目前学术界对远程耦合框架的应用主要集中于生态系统服务、远程耦合的社会经济和环境影响及土地变化科学3个方面;同时得益于理论操作化的进展,目前开展远程耦合研究已具备较好的方法支持。基于此,论文认为,为应对新兴的现实科学命题,基于远程耦合框架的地理学研究应当在人地关系网络系统的理论创新、远程耦合动力机制和远程耦合的调控工具集3个方面实现突破。     

应用测距三角高程法进行跨河水准测量

为将三角高程法跨河水准测量的技术规范要求对应到工程案例中,有效指导技术人员实际操作,本文通过工程实例,按测距三角高程法跨河水准测量的作业流程、计算公式、各未知数据求值展开,逐层解构分析,细致阐述跨河水准测量中测距三角高程法的要点,实例验证了利用测距三角高程测量实现二等跨河水准测量的可行性。同时对“跨河垂直角观测时视线长”的简易计算公式进行了推导,探讨了计算结果的准确性和有效性,对跨河二等水准测量具有较好的推广价值。