我国期气候预测的业务技术发展

概述了我国短期气候预测技术和业务现代化发展的历史，分析了“九五”以来我国短期气候预测技术的新进展，探讨了未来短期气候预测技术发展的几个主要问题。     

Four thousand years of atmospheric lead pollution in northern Europe: a summary from Swedish lake sediments

This paper presents a large palaeolimnological study of the pre-industrial and industrial history of atmospheric lead pollution deposition in Sweden. Both lead concentrations and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios have been analysed in 31 lakes covering most of Sweden, plus one lake in north-west Russia. Four of the lakes have varved (annually-laminated) sediments. Isotope analysis is a sensitive and effective method to distinguish pollution lead from natural catchment lead and to detect early pollution influence, because the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio in unpolluted background sediments in Sweden was > 1.3, while that of lead from pollution, derived from ores and coal, was < 1.2. The sediments show a consistent picture of past temporal changes in atmospheric lead pollution. These changes include: the first traces of pollution 3,500-3,000 yrs ago; a pollution peak in Greek-Roman Times (about 0 AD); lower lead fall-out between 400 and 900 AD; a significant and permanent increase in atmospheric lead fall-out from about 1000 AD; an increase with the Industrial revolution; a major increase following World War II; the maximum peak in the 1970s; and decreasing fall-out over the last decades. The four varved sediments provide high-resolution records of atmospheric pollution. They reveal pollution peaks about 1200 and 1530 AD which match the history of metal production in Europe. According to the varve records the lead pollution level in the late 1990s had decreased beneath the level of the 1530s. The pollution level 1200 AD was about 35% of the 1980s, when lead pollution was still near its all time high. About 50% of the total accumulated atmospheric lead pollution deposition through time was deposited in the pre-industrial period. The sediments also show a consistent picture of the geographic distribution of atmospheric lead deposition over time, with higher deposition in south Sweden and declining levels to the north, which supports the hypothesis that the main sources of pre-industrial atmospheric lead pollution in Sweden were cultural areas in mainland Europe and Great Britain.     

Appreciation of Contributions by Georges Matheron and John Tukey to a Mineral-Resources Research Project

Georges Matheron (1930–2000) and John Tukey (1915–2000) were among the most prominent mathematical statisticians of the 20th century. Both men produced numerous important new theoretical and practical results. This personal appreciation of their work concentrates on contributions to mineral-resources research and describes their influence on my work in mineral-resource evaluation studies at the Geological Survey of Canada (1966–1983).     

陈传康的学术生命路径和学术树

通过扩展传统的生命路径 ( life path)概念、并建立学术树 ( discipline tree)概念 ,研究已故当代中国著名地理学家、旅游学家陈传康教授的学术史。在统计了陈传康教授全部 1 2 1 2种次的学术著述的基础上 ,首先在时间纬度上建立了学术生命路径曲线、系统式和时序式生命路径表 ,用以统计分析陈传康教授的学术论著种次的分布情况和变迁过程 ,一方面反映出著作量随中国当代历史的脉动而出现的起伏变化 ,另一方面通过观察时间轴上这些著述的学科点的分布变化 ,不仅体现 2 0世纪 5 0年代～ 90年代陈传康学术偏好的转徙 ,也反映出 5 0年间中国地理学整体的变化轨迹。利用学术树的概念 ,统计分析陈传康一生构筑的个人学术体系 ,最终勾勒出其一生经营的学术群落的整体景观。     

Holocene lake-level fluctuations and beach-ridge development along the northern shore of Lake Michigan, USA

Geomorphology of a beach-ridge complex and adjacent lake basins along the northern shore of Lake Michigan records fluctuations in the level of Lake Michigan for the last 8000 to 10 000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. (radiocarbon years Before Present). A storm berm at 204.7–206 m (671.6–675.9 ft) exposed in a sandpit provides evidence of a pre-Chippewa Low lake level that is correlated with dropping water levels of Glacial Lake Algonquin (c. 10 300–10 100 ¹⁴C yr B.P.). Radiocarbon dates from organic material exposed in a river cutbank and basal sediments from Elbow Lake, Mackinac Co., Michigan, indicate a maximum age of a highstand of Lake Michigan at 6900 ¹⁴C yr B.P., which reached as high as 196.7 m (645 ft), during the early-Nipissing transgression of Lake Michigan. Basal radiocarbon dates from beach swales and a second lake site (Beaverhouse Lake, Mackinac Co.) provide geomorphic evidence for a subsequent highstand which reached 192.6 m (632 ft) at 5390±70 ¹⁴C yr B.P.Basal radiocarbon dates from a transect of sediment cores, along with tree-ring data, and General Land Office Surveyor notes of a shipwreck, c. A.D. 1846, reveal a late-Holocene rate for isostatic rebound of 22.6 cm/100 radiocarbon years (0.74 ft/100 radiocarbon years) for the northern shore of Lake Michigan, relative to the Lake Michigan-Lake Huron outlet at Port Huron, Michigan. Changes in sediment stratigraphy, inter-ridge distance, and sediment accumulation rates document a mid- to late-Holocene retreat of the shoreline due to isostatic rebound. This regression sequence was punctuated by brief, periodic highstands, resulting in progressive development over the past 5400 ¹⁴C yr of 75 pairs of dune ridges and swales each formed over an interval of approximately 72 years. Times of lake-level fluctuation were identified at 3900, 3200, and 1000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. based on changes in inter-ridge spacing, shifts in the course of Millecoquins River, and reorientation of beach-ridge lineation. Soil type, dune development, and selected pollen data provide supporting evidence for this chronology. Late-Holocene beach-ridge development and lake-level fluctuations are related to a retreat of the dominant Pacific airmass and the convergence of the Arctic and Tropical airmasses resulting in predominantly meridional rather than zonal air flow across the Great Lakes region.This is the 13th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

The late Quaternary development of three ancient tarns on southwestern Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada: paleolimnological evidence from diatoms and sediment chemistry

Sediment diatom and chemical analyses of cores from three poorly buffered extra-glacial lakes on the northeastern margin of the Canadian Shield (Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island) record interactions between aquatic and terrestrial spheres that were influenced by late Quaternary climatic conditions. Although differences exist between each of the lakes, notably with regards to the intensity of pre-Holocene catchment erosion and the timing of the onset of organic sedimentation, an underlying pattern of lake ontogeny, common to all three lakes, is identified. Although intensified watershed erosion characterized the Late Wisconsinan and Neoglacial cold periods, the lakes nonetheless remained viable ecosystems at these times. Sudden catchment stabilization during the late-glacial to earliest Holocene is associated with incipient organic sedimentation. Lake-water pH increased at this time, likely in response both longer base cation residence times as lake flushing rates decreased, and enhanced alkalinity production from sediment biogeochemical reactions. Subsequently, as the catchments remained stable during the productive early Holocene (c.9–7 ka BP), then gradually received a renewed increase of minerogenic sedimentation, the breakdown of sources of lake alkalinity resulted in natural acidification. Burial of cation-rich mineral sediments and the loss of permanent sedimentary sinks for the products of microbial reduction likely impeded within-lake alkalinity production, and catchment-derived base cations appeared ineffective in curtailing pH declines. The general nature of the Holocene development of these lakes is similar to that observed elsewhere on crystalline terrains, following deglaciation. Our data therefore suggest that catchment glaciation is not a necessary precursor for models of lake development characterized by initial base cation enrichment and subsequent gradual acidification.     

世界早期历史地震史料的比较研究(待续)

通过对各国地震最早记载及其背景性证据的分析;用时间差分序列的双对数法,进行了地震记载资料丰富程度的探讨;研究了3700年前的全球地震活跃期;给出了公元前2221年至公元1900年105个国家(地区)的资料。     

Tectono-Sedimentary History of Southeastern Coast Region,China:a Synthesis

According to the ideas and concepts of systems dynamic of continent structure, using previous information related to the study area, combining analyses on orogenic belt, basin and magmatic rock, the present paper synthesizes the tectono-sedimentary development of southeastern coast region, China, with special emphasis on the mountain making, basining and magmafc activity. The tectonic evolution after Late Caledonian orogeny was dominated by alternating rifting and converging, subsiding and uplifting, mountain making and basining in central and southern parts of southeastern China and the adjacent regions to the east and west. Seventeen geologic events, nine events of plate or terrain convergence , and continental crust accretion, as well as eight events of intracontinental rifting and basin faulting , are closely related to the tectonic and sedimentary evolution of the study area. The accompanied intense and frequent sedimentation , folding , faulting , magmatism and ore-forming process allowed huge coal     

The Coupled Re—Os and Pt—Os Systematics：A Theoretical Consideration

The ^190Pt-^186Os system should be a unique tracer for mantle processes be-cause both Pt and Os are concentrated in the mantle.The ^190Pt-^186Os system will also be a good supplement to the ^187Re-^187Os system for dating and tracing mantle pro-cesses because the ^190Pt-^186Os system is not so easily contaminated by crustal materials as the ^187Re-^187Os system.In turn,the application of the ^187Re-^187Os system to Pt-enriched materials uncontaminated by crustal materials will indirectly refine the half life of ^190Pt.The ^190Pt is refined.In the coupled ^187Re-^187Os and ^190Pt-^186Os sys-tematics,an ^186Os*/^190Pt-^187Os*/^187Re Concordia diagram similar to the ^206Pb*/^238U-^208Pb*/^232Th Concordia can be constructed.In such a Concordia diagram,a date will be obtained so long as the ^190Pt-^186Os system remains closed even if the ^187Re-^187Os sys -tem is contaminated by crustal materials.In addition ,for the coupled ^190Pt-^186Os and ^187Re-^187Os systematics,the mantle processes and the interactions between the mantle and the crust will be described by two ratios:^186Os/^188Os and ^187Os/^188Os .The coupled ^187Re-^187Os and ^190Pt-^186Os systematics will be a powerful tool in the investigation of the geodynamic history of the Earth because the ^187Re-^187Os system is sensitive to the interactions between the mantle and the crust,while the ^190Pt-^186Os system is a good tracer for mantle processes.     

华北陆块、秦岭地块和扬子陆块构造演化的古地磁证据

通过对河北井陉和湖北宜昌、兴山的39个采样点、392个样品进行的古地磁测试,以及7个采样点、71个样品中的原生剩磁以及笔者前期研究结果,系统分析了三大块体的古地磁极位置、古地磁偏角以及古纬度自寒武纪以来的变化特征,并进行了古地理复原。研究表明,三块体为不同地质构造单元,寒武纪时,华北陆块、秦岭地块以及扬子陆块自北到南顺序排列于北纬2.9°、南纬5.5°以及南纬17.0°。秦岭地块北侧和南侧分别存在一古洋盆,此时华北陆块和扬子陆块相距约1400Km左右;三块体向北漂移的过程中伴随着旋转运动;三块体开始拼合的时间为晚二叠纪至早三叠纪之间,华北陆块和秦岭地块完全拼合的时间为早三叠纪至中三叠纪之间,三块体完全拼合的时间为中三叠纪至晚白垩纪之间;晚白垩纪以后,一体化的三块体继续向北漂移,并于第四纪到达现今地理位置。