A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

鄂尔多斯盆地晚三叠世延长期古湖盆生物相带划分及地质意义

鄂尔多斯盆地晚三叠世发育大型坳陷型湖盆。湖水的升降影响着湖盆水体面积的大小、深浅以及沉积体系发育分布,进而影响全盆地晚三叠延长统地层生储盖组合的发育特征。通过野外剖面、钻井岩芯中古生物化石的鉴定,结合古生物组合特征对鄂尔多斯盆地晚三叠世湖盆的古生物生态环境进行了恢复。确定鄂尔多斯晚三叠世湖盆是一个最大水深不超过60 m的浅水湖盆,属于温暖潮湿的淡水-半咸水环境。从湖岸到湖心,可以划分为预测古水深1～2 m的河流-沼泽生物相带;预测古水深3～15 m的滨岸-河口三角洲生物相带;预测古水深15～35 m的浅湖生物相带;预测古水深在35～60 m范围的半-深湖生物相带。这些生物相带的划分,为恢复鄂尔多斯盆地晚三叠世时期的岩相古地理奠定了基础,为盆地延长组沉积边界、盆地内沉积体系发育展布以及沉积相带的划分提供了坚实的地质依据,具有理论与实际意义。     

Internal Microanatomy and Zoological Affinity of the Early Cambrian Olivooides

The early Cambrian pentamerous microfossil Olivooides/Punctatus in South China, which is characterized by a diagnostic stellate tubular apex, has been well-known for its almost complete development sequence that can be confidently traced from embryos and hatched juveniles, to conical adults. However, its zoological affinity remains highly controversial. Here we describe the internal microanatomic structures of the soft-body inside the peridermal theca of Olivooides multisulcatus Qian, 1977, including interradial pairs of tentacles, adradial and perradial frenula, perradial oral marginal lappets and twins of perradial gastric saccule-like humps as well as a circular velarium with striated coronal muscles. Particularly, one specimen shows bifurcated velarial canals along the bell aperture. Both the components of the soft-body and the external theca (or cyst) are arranged in perfect pentaradial symmetry. These characteristics are more compatible with those of living cubomedusans and co-occurring Cambrian athecate embryonic cubozoans. Concerning the presence of peridermal theca, Olivooides most likely represents an extinct thecate stem-group cubomedusae but devoid of both perradial eyes and specialized pedalia. The well-grown soft body inside the peridermal tube displays a set of mixed features of both polyp and medusa.     

东北大三江盆地群早白垩世存在统一湖盆的沉积学证据

大三江盆地群位于黑龙江省东部,中生代以来经历了多期构造运动,形成现今各自分割的10余个残余盆地。由于缺乏关键性证据,前人对大三江地区早白垩世是否存在统一湖盆存在争议。本次研究通过野外地质调查和钻井岩心观察,认为盆地总体缺乏边缘相沉积,并且主要以三角洲平原亚相和滨浅湖亚相为主。古水流恢复和重矿物特征显示,研究区主要存在西部和西北部、东部以及东南部三大物源体系,并且平面上具有由四周向中心汇聚的特征。地震资料反射特征显示下白垩统具有典型的断陷-坳陷复合结构,坳陷时期地层由各盆地中心至边部未出现明显的地层减薄现象,现今的盆地边界断裂多为后期对盆地进行改造、破坏的逆冲断裂。这些证据都是对大三江地区早白垩世存在统一湖盆的有力支撑。本研究不仅能为大三江盆地群原型盆地的恢复提供重要依据,也将为东北盆地群油气资源远景评价和进一步的勘探部署提供参考。     

云南建水煌斑岩年代学和地球化学及其构造意义

华南大陆内部燕山期的岩浆事件可分为2期:燕山早期180~150 Ma,燕山晚期140~80 Ma。而处于扬子板块西南缘的滇黔贵等地,仅见有第二期晚白垩世中酸性侵入岩与相关成矿作用,缺乏第一期岩浆活动的时间记录。本文在滇东建水地区首次发现了麦地村煌斑岩,对其进行高精度LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年和主微量元素测试分析。结果显示煌斑岩的锆石U-Pb年龄为(158.4±2.4)Ma(MSWD=4.2),为晚侏罗世的产物,补充了该区较为空白的第一期岩浆热事件。麦地村煌斑岩不相容元素明显高于原始地幔,表现出不同程度的富集,大离子亲石元素Rb、Ba、Ce等富集程度不明显,高场强元素中U、Ta、Pb等表现出一定程度富集,LREE相对富集,HREE相对亏损,不具有Nb-Ta-Ti负异常的俯冲型配分曲线特征,具有明显的OIB型洋岛玄武岩稀土元素配分特征,为板内伸展环境下的产物。滇东地区发育中生代时期的NNE构造,早期NNE向褶皱叠加有后期同方向正断层。早期褶皱表现为SEE-NWW挤压应力作用下的构造特征,后期断层表现出同方向张应力作用下的特征。煌斑岩正是由于该区发生挤压之后伴随着一期应力松弛调整,伸展减压作用诱发地幔物质部分融熔,来自于深处的软流圈地幔流体与岩石圈地幔发生交代作用,形成富集型地幔,交代富集的岩石圈地幔局部受热、部分熔融,发生上升侵位。煌斑岩的侵位时间即是滇东地区中生代从挤压向伸展转换的起始时间。     

国际油气井钻头进展概述（二）——FuseTek融合钻头与Pexus组合钻头

NOV公司2013年向市场推出FuseTek融合钻头。它将PDC钻头的高钻速与孕镶金刚石钻头的耐磨性结合于一体,适宜于钻进中硬—坚硬、高研磨性地层。FuseTek钻头已广泛应用于刚果、厄瓜多尔、中国、哥伦比亚等国家。应用表明,该新型组合钻头比PDC钻头或牙轮钻头钻进效率提高许多,工作寿命增加1～3倍或更多。Shear Bits公司于2014年推出Pexus组合钻头。该钻头广泛应用于加拿大冰川冰碛物钻进。地层上部硬卵砾石层利用可转动硬质合金齿钻进,下部软砂岩与页岩则运用PDC碎岩。整个冰碛物地层用一个Pexus钻头一钻到底。所述3类组合式钻头（含Kymera钻头）对于未来实现“一个钻头,一口井”的目标有重要意义。     

延庆千家店地区硅化木赋存层位及形成时代分析

北京延庆千家店土城子组中的硅化木自发现以来,得到了众多学者的关注,但关于硅化木的赋存层位和形成时代一直未有定论,目前主流观点认为硅化木广泛发育于土城子组一段和二段的下部,关于其形成时代则自侏罗纪早期至白垩纪早期的论述均有,这种争论显然不利于木化石的保护、科普和进一步深化认识。在千家店土城子组进行的考察结果展现出与前人观点不同的线索。实地考察、剖面测量和年龄测试结果显示:原位埋藏硅化木形成时代应为晚侏罗世早期,赋存层位为土城子组一段下部,而土城子组二段下部的沉积特征反应出当时水位频繁升降,水体能量剧烈变化,火山活动暂时陷入沉寂的沉积环境,较难满足形成木化石的基本要求。     

北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨之间的关系

本文通过对中国地区实测降水及北极海冰卫星数据的分析,研究了北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨的关系。合成分析的研究结果表明2000年之前中国南方和北方冬季降水偏少,中部降水偏多,这之后中国南方和北方冬季降水增加,中部降水减少。SVD研究结果显示,北极海冰减少使得近三十年来中国南方和北方冬季降雨呈现逐渐增多,中部地区(从青藏高原向东北方向至日本)降雨逐步减少的趋势。随着北极海冰的进一步减少,如遇合适的气候条件,南方冻雨出现的概率会加大。北极秋季海冰异常的回复过程加之冬季海冰异常的延续信号在中国、蒙古及日本北部激发一个阻塞高压,以巴伦支海/卡拉海为中心激发一个异常低压。这使得来自北冰洋大西洋扇区的冷空气南下至欧洲大陆和亚洲北部,在阻塞高压的影响下,冷空气进一步南下,进入东亚地区。这不仅使得亚洲冬季温度降低,也为中国北部降水增加提供条件。     

Snow disaster characteristics in Palongzangbu River Basin and mitigation countermeasures for road engineering

The Palongzangbu River Basin contains the highest number of maritime province glaciers in China.There are 130 glacial lakes,64 snow avalanche sites and 28 glacial debris flow gullies distributed within the basin.Snow disasters play a controlling role in the Sichuan-Tibet Highway construction,due to the terrain's special characteristics of high altitude and large height differential.Segmentation mitigation countermeasures for the Sichuan-Tibet Highway are presented based on snow disaster severity level and damage mode of the road.In the Ranwu to Midui section,snow avalanches are regional disasters, so the line should be placed in sunny slopes.In the Midui Gully to Yupu section,the line should be placed in shady slopes and at higher elevations to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst.In the Yupu to Guxiang section,all three snow disasters are minimal.In the Guxiang to Tongmai section,glacier debris flows are the major threat,thus the road should be placed in shady slopes.     

TRACE ELEMENT DISTRIBUTION AND IMPLICATIONS IN SEDIMENTS ACROSS THE ALLERØD–YOUNGER DRYAS BOUNDARY IN THE NETHERLANDS AND BELGIUM

In the Northern Hemisphere, the Younger Dryas cooling occurred between 12.8 and 11.7 ka bp . This cooling is thought to have been the result of an abrupt change in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. One of the hypotheses explaining such a change suggests that just before the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling, multiple airbursts/impacts occurred over the Northern Hemisphere. We studied the late Pleistocene sediments from the Netherlands and Belgium to check whether a sudden short event might have taken place just before the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling. The geochemical features revealed suggest that such events might have occurred. The presence of products of biomass burning is suggested on the basis of trace element features of sediments from the lower Younger Dryas boundary. The presence of a volcanic component and a component resulting from extensive biomass burning in the sediments of c. 12.9 ka bp are indicated on the basis of trace element features. The volcanic component may be related to the Laacher See volcano eruption, whereas the cause of the extensive biomass burning remains unclear.