4-Dimensional Models of Deformation of the Earth's Crust and Earthquake Prediction

Traditionally, when creating 4-D models of elastic offsets in the Earth's crust, the data from geodesic and GPS monitoring of offsets on the ground surface, earthquake catalogs, monitoring of the water level and radon content in wells, sea level fluctuations, as well as gravitational and magnetic fields, etc., can be taken as bases for information. In essence, the reason for creating a 4-D model of slow elastic deformations is to approximate the process by a set of plane deformation solitons (solitary waves). The parameters of a set of deformation solitons are obtained by a two-stage inversion. First, the parameters of the model are determined in a kinematic way by the use of a modified simplification of the method. Then, a calibration of the amplitude characteristics of the model is carried out in terms of elastic dynamic offsets. Taking Ural, Northern Tianshan, Greece, and China as examples, models for these regions are created on the basis of seismological, geodesic, deformation, hydrogeological, and     

Trends in the characteristics of the annual and semiannual variations observed in the radio wave absorption in the lower ionosphere

The continuous increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to cool higher levels of the atmosphere. There is some direct and indirect experimental evidence of long-term trends in temperature and other parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Here we look for long-term trends in the annual and semiannual variations of the radio wave absorption in the lower ionosphere, which corresponds to the MLT region heights. Data from central and southeastern Europe are used. A consistent tendency to a positive trend in the amplitude of the semiannual wave appears to be observed. The reality of a similar tendency in the amplitude of the annual wave is questionable in the sense that the trend in the amplitude of the annual wave is probably induced by the trend in the yearly average values of absorption. The phases of both the annual and semiannual waves display a forward tendency, i.e. shift to an earlier time in the year. A tentative interpretation of these results in terms of changes of the seasonal variation of temperature and wind at MLT heights does not contradict the trends observed in those parameters.     

Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.     

Morphology and kinematics in thick box‐peanut bulge galaxies

Both, observational and theoretical results support the close connection between bars and box/peanut‐shaped bulges in spiral galaxies. However, for the sub‐class of thick box/peanut‐shaped bulges, an environmental process instead of an internal mechanism is suggested to account for the prominence of the box/peanut component. In this paper a multiwavelength study of the morphology and the kinematics of a sample of thick box/peanut‐shaped bulges is presented. The results suggest a scenario in which interaction events play a significant role in the history of thick box/peanut‐shaped bulge galaxies. Most likely these sources have experienced a mass infall. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

成矿系统的结构与聚矿功能

成矿系统结构对成矿动力学条件的约束与促进,引起系统固有聚矿功能的巨大变异。成矿系统动力学包括：系统运转的动力组合、系统物质运动总方向和轨迹、矿质活动空间规模形态及单位空间中成矿微过程的频度。系统结构定性分析表明：系统结构的完善程度和成矿动力学条件的优劣与系统聚矿功能的强度正相关。系统结构完善程度可由结构紧致度（Ｉ）表征,系统聚矿功能可用标准富集量（Ｑｓ）反映,它是矿床储量（Ｑ０）经成矿难度系数（Ｃ）变换的归一化指标。经结构定性半定量分析,对成矿系统聚矿功能作出初步排序,具强烈非线性成矿特征的花岗岩浆成矿系统和环流热液成矿系统的聚矿功能最高     

POLAR spacecraft observations of helium ion angular anisotropy in the Earth’s radiation belts

New observations of energetic helium ion fluxes in the Earth’s radiation belts have been obtained with the CAMMICE/HIT instrument on the ISTP/GGS POLAR spacecraft during the extended geomagnetically low activity period April through October 1996. POLAR executes a high inclination trajectory that crosses over both polar cap regions and passes over the geomagnetic equator in the heart of the radiation belts. The latter attribute makes possible direct observations of nearly the full equatorial helium ion pitch angle distributions in the heart of the Earth’s radiation belt region. Additionally, the spacecraft often re-encounters the same geomagnetic flux tube at a substantially off-equatorial location within a few tens of minutes prior to or after the equatorial crossing. This makes both the equatorial pitch angle distribution and an expanded view of the local off-equatorial pitch angle distribution observable. The orbit of POLAR also permitted observations to be made in conjugate magnetic local time sectors over the course of the same day, and this afforded direct comparison of observations on diametrically opposite locations in the Earth’s radiation belt region at closely spaced times. Results from four helium ion data channels covering ion kinetic energies from 520 to 8200 KeV show that the distributions display trapped particle characteristics with angular flux peaks for equatorially mirroring particles as one might reasonably expect. However, the helium ion pitch angle distributions generally flattened out for equatorial pitch angles below about 45°. Significant and systematic helium ion anisotropy difference at conjugate magnetic local time were also observed, and we report quiet time azimuthal variations of the anisotropy index.     

Radiative forcing by contrails

A parametric study of the instantaneous radiative impact of contrails is presented using three different radiative transfer models for a series of model atmospheres and cloud parameters. Contrails are treated as geometrically and optically thin plane parallel homogeneous cirrus layers in a static atmosphere. The ice water content is varied as a function of ambient temperature. The model atmospheres include tropical, mid-latitude, and subarctic summer and winter atmospheres. Optically thin contrails cause a positive net forcing at top of the atmosphere. At the surface the radiative forcing is negative during daytime. The forcing increases with the optical depth and the amount of contrail cover. At the top of the atmosphere, a mean contrail cover of 0.1% with average optical depth of 0.2 to 0.5 causes about 0.01 to 0.03 Wm⁻² daily mean instantaneous radiative forcing. Contrails cool the surface during the day and heat the surface during the night, and hence reduce the daily temperature amplitude. The net effect depends strongly on the daily variation of contrail cloud cover. The indirect radiative forcing due to particle changes in natural cirrus clouds may be of the same magnitude as the direct one due to additional cover.     

Possible configurations of the magnetic field in the outer magnetosphere during geomagnetic polarity reversals

Possible configurations of the magnetic field in the outer magnetosphere during geomagnetic polarity reversals are investigated by considering the idealized problem of a magnetic multipole of order m and degree n located at the centre of a spherical cavity surrounded by a boundless perfect diamagnetic medium. In this illustrative idealization, the fixed spherical (magnetopause) boundary layer behaves as a perfectly conducting surface that shields the external diamagnetic medium from the compressed multipole magnetic field, which is therefore confined within the spherical cavity. For a general magnetic multipole of degree n, the non-radial components of magnetic induction just inside the magnetopause are increased by the factor 1 + [(n + 1)/n] relative to their corresponding values in the absence of the perfectly conducting spherical magnetopause. An exact equation is derived for the magnetic field lines of an individual zonal (m = 0), or axisymmetric, magnetic multipole of arbitrary degree n located at the centre of the magnetospheric cavity. For such a zonal magnetic multipole, there are always two neutral points and n – 1 neutral rings on the spherical magnetopause surface. The two neutral points are located at the poles of the spherical magnetopause. If n is even, one of the neutral rings is coincident with the equator; otherwise, the neutral rings are located symmetrically with respect to the equator. The actual existence of idealized higher-degree (n > 1) axisymmetric magnetospheres would necessarily imply multiple (n + 1) magnetospheric cusps and multiple (n) ring currents. Exact equations are also derived for the magnetic field lines of an individual non-axisymmetric magnetic multipole, confined by a perfectly conducting spherical magnetopause, in two special cases; namely, a symmetric sectorial multipole (m = n) and an antisymmetric sectorial multipole (m = n – 1). For both these non-axisymmetric magnetic multipoles, there exists on the spherical magnetopause surface a set of neutral points linked by a network of magnetic field lines. Novel magnetospheric processes are likely to arise from the existence of magnetic neutral lines that extend from the magnetopause to the surface of the Earth. Finally, magnetic field lines that are confined to, or perpendicular to, either special meridional planes or the equatorial plane, when the multipole is in free space, continue to be confined to, or perpendicular to, these same planes when the perfectly conducting magnetopause is present.Also Honorary Research Associate, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon OX11 0QX, UK and Visiting Reader in Physics. University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK     

Two-dimensional simulations of katabatic layers observed during the GIMEX experiment

The hydrostatic model SALSA is used to simulate a particular event observed during the Greenland Ice Margin EXperiment “GIMEX” (on July 12th, 1991). The time evolution of the large-scale flow was incorporated in the model through time dependent boundary conditions which were updated using the closest upwind sounding. A turbulent scheme for the stable boundary layer and an appropriate parametrization of the surface fluxes implemented in the same model, are used for this study. The simulation results are discussed and compared to the available observations. The computed turbulent fluxes are correctly estimated. The model predicts a mixing zone of about 1500 m high which is in good agreement with tundra site observations. Over the ice cap, the katabatic layer is correctly simulated by the model. Its height of 80–300 m is well estimated. The comparison between the simulation and observations taken at ice cap sites is reasonably valid. The ablation computed along the ice cap corresponds well to the values reconstructed of observations at sites 4 and 9. Finally, a sensibility study to a specified westward geostrophic wind (2 ms⁻¹) shows that the consideration of this latter improves the simulated tundra wind evolution.     

Preliminary study on radiocarbon AMS dating of pollen

17 samples were collected from aeolian and lacustrine profiles within the environment sensitive zone of the Loess Plateau, and an experimental method was established which is suitable for pollen extraction from aeolian sediment. A comparative study of pollen dating was carried out using the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)¹⁴C dating of known age samples, and then an experiment with the pollen concentrates was performed. The results indicate that pollen that has been deposited simultaneously with sediment in a stable environment can provide reliable ages. This technique will provide a way of improving the chronological framework for the Loess Plateau since the late Pleistocene. The^I4c dating was combined with field investigations, and from the geological record within this zone, evidence was extracted of four major monsoon precipitation changes during the transition from the late Pleistocene to Holocene. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 49894170, 49725308), Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. KZ-951-A1-402& KZ-952-S1-419), and State Committee of Science and Technology of China.